<i>MK Venu is Executive Editor of Amar Ujala publications group</i>
The BJP had successfully created a narrative that Narendra Modi was riding a big electoral wave in North India reflecting the voter's need for a more development-oriented alternative arrangement at the Centre.
Based on this narrative, the party had indeed started believing it could, on its own, get close to 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. But suddenly, in the last few days, Narendra Modi is showing signs of nervousness about the BJP reaching the 240-245 mark that some opinion polls have predicted.
Modi suddenly talking about the Ram Rajya in a public meeting in Faizabad with an imposing image of Lord Rama and a temple in the backdrop, as also Amit Shah suggesting Azamgarh was a hub of terrorism, shows the nervousness in the BJP camp about getting the last 50 of the 250 Lok Sabha seats which Modi thinks the party can get on its own.
Otherwise, why would Modi move away from development issues and sharply raise both communal and caste issues just before 33 Lok Sabha seats in East UP went to the polls in the last two phases of voting? The question is - is the BJP facing a last mile (about 50 seats) problem? Does the BJP fear it may be confined to just about 200 seats and will consequently be forced to seek help from many allies? Indeed, this could be the cause of Modi's nervousness. This worry is making Modi resort to all kinds of electoral tactics.
Narendra Modi for the first time spoke at length about his own lower caste status from a public platform in response to Priyanka Gandhi's charge against him of doing "neech rajniti" or lowly politics. Modi cleverly twisted Priyanka's use of the word "neech" to suggest she was actually pointing to his backward caste status. Indeed, such tactics only reflect the mindset of a leader who is not entirely sure of himself.
Meanwhile, the BSP leader Mayawati, who has been quietly working hard on the ground and shunning the media by and large, chose to go on national channels condemning Modi's last-minute tactic of playing on his lower caste status. "Why has Modi not made his exact caste status public so far? Why is he doing it now? What is the history of BJP's commitment to backward caste politics? They disagreed with VP Singh who implemented Mandal Commsision," Mayawati said in a rare TV appearance.
Interestingly, Mayawati chose to come on national television because the BSP is very strong in many of the 33 crucial seats in East UP (which are voting this week and next) where the BJP got just four seats in the 2009 poll. The BJP's calculation is that it must get at least an additional 20 to 25 seats in East UP to contribute to the last mile (50 seats) which will help it reach an overall tally of 245 to 250 seats.
The BJP is not sure about getting the required numbers in East UP because Mayawati's consolidation of Dalits and Muslims is very strong here. The Samajwadi Party (SP) too is quite strong in some pockets of East UP.
Actually, the BJP is desperate to reach 250 Lok Sabha seats because this will enable it to form a government with possibly just two of its stable allies, Shiv Sena and Akali Dal. If Modi falls short of the majority mark by about 70 to 80 seats, then it will have a problem on its hands.
In a way, this problem has been articulated by Rahul Gandhi in his interview to Amar Ujala this week. Gandhi says two-thirds of the current BJP allies don't have even one seat in Parliament. Some of the bigger former allies of the BJP, such as TMC, BJD and JD (U) are the biggest critics of Modi. So this leaves Narendra Modi in a very vulnerable situation if the BJP's seat tally hovers around just the 200 mark. That might explain why Narendra Modi is using the Hindutva card and his backward caste status so desperately in the last phase of the election.
The BJP's strategy hinges entirely on increasing its Lok Sabha seats tally in Uttar Pradesh from 10 in 2009 to 45-50 seats in 2014. In Bihar, where the BJP claimed a big pro-Modi wave, the party had expected to raise its tally from 12 seats in 2009 to at least 26-28 seats in 2014. However, the sudden resurgence of Lalu Yadav in Bihar has somewhat halted the BJP's ambition of more than doubling its tally in Bihar.
In UP too, it now appears, the BJP is not very confident of the "big wave" taking it to 50 plus seats. This writer visited many villages around many East UP constituencies and found that the massive media blitz by the BJP made everyone parrot Modi's name as if he was a natural choice being propelled by some unknown force and articulated by the media.
But when one spoke to the same individuals about ground realities, they would talk about a tough three-way fight between candidates of the BSP, the BJP and the SP.
Dayashankar Mishra, a school teacher in Bhadoi constituency said, "Dish TV has been giving us Modi's speeches day after day non-stop. So people take his name naturally as a PM candidate. But on the ground there are strong candidates from the BSP and SP."
Going by people's response, this may just be the first American style television campaign executed by Narendra Modi across rural India. On television it is a one-horse race. However, things seem different on the ground. This is what is making the BJP nervous.
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