Ahead of the Bihar assembly elections due in October or November this year, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the state has expanded its cabinet to fill vacant positions. The appointments, it seems, are aimed at balancing caste and regional aspirations in a bid to boost the alliance's prospects. While all the seven ministers belong to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), highlighting its heft in the alliance, a big question mark hangs over whether the party will contest the polls with Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial face, or whether it pull an Eknath Shinde post-poll.
Age And Health
Despite Nitish's waning health and popularity, the Janata Dal (United) insists on naming him the chief ministerial candidate. Given the contentious issue of ticket distribution and Nitish's tendency to jump ships, the next few months could set off a political potboiler in Bihar. The cabinet expansion has also led to rumours that the state elections could be pre-poned.
The new BJP ministers sworn in are Sanjay Saraogi (Darbhanga), Sunil Kumar (Biharsharif), Jibesh Kumar (Jale), Raju Kumar Singh (Sahebganj), Moti Lal Prasad (Riga), Krishna Kumar Mantu (Amnour) and Vijay Kumar Mandal (Sikti). Out of these seven leaders, four belong to the OBC community, one to the EBC, and two are from upper castes, the core voting segments of the saffron party.
The strength of the Cabinet goes up to 37 with this expansion; this includes the Chief Minister, 22 leaders from the BJP, 13 from the JD(U), one from the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and one Independent. This is in proportion to the total strength of alliance parties in the House: 84 members from the BJP and 48 from the JD(U).
Caste Calculations
Post-expansion, Nitish's Cabinet now has 28% representation from the OBC community and 19% from the SCs. This is broadly in line with the population share of the two groups. However, the representation of Economically Backward Classes (EBC) and Most Backward Classes (MBC) is still low: just 19%, when they make up 36% of the state's population. This is mostly because around 11% of Muslims in the state are classified as EBC/MBC, while there is just one Muslim minister from the community in the entire Cabinet.
Meanwhile, General category leaders make up 31% of the Cabinet, which is twice their population. Four ministers are from the 15-seat Greater Mithilanchal region. The NDA had won 97 of these in 2020, and the latest appointment is aimed at consolidating its base further in this zone.
In 2020, both alliances had fetched around 37% of votes. However, the NDA received 11,150 votes more than the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan. It bagged 125 of the 243 seats, three more than the simple majority, and ended up forming the government.
Central Considerations
This year as well, Bihar is expected to see a tight election. The key question before the BJP is whether it will declare Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial face of the alliance. If it pulls a Maharashtra in Bihar and decides on a name after the results, the post could then go to the largest party in the alliance, depending upon their performance in the election. This is crucial because before going to the polls in 2020, the BJP had declared that Nitish would be the Chief Minister, irrespective of the parties' seat tally in the election. The BJP honoured its promise despite getting almost twice the number of seats than the JD(U). A section of the parties' cadre and supporters didn't appreciate this.
When Nitish made a gharwapsi just days ahead of the 2024 general election, he was still retained as Chief Minister as the BJP, falling short of a majority, needed the support of the JDU's 12 MLAs in Parliament. Nitish may use this as a bargaining chip in the upcoming state elections.
The JD(U), already jittery after the BJP's Maharashtra move, has been demanding that the NDA announce Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate immediately. Any delay can complicate matters, given the buzz about the 74-year-old leader's deteriorating health. Further, the clamour in the party to name Nitish's son, Nishant, as his successor, is only growing.
Regional parties in India are mostly family-controlled. Already, questions are being raised about the JD(U)'s future after Nitish, who commands as much as 12-15% of the vote share thanks to the Kurmi, EBC/MBC and Mahadalit communities.
Patchwork Politics?
Can a BJP do a Shiv Sena on the JD(U) just before the polls, forcing a leadership change and installing a BJP Chief Minister? RJD supremo Lalu Yadav has already been making overtures to Nitish to join the Mahagathbandhan, though the latter has publicly declined the offer. With just six months to go before the polls, the BJP may want to avoid such patchwork politics and play its cards after the election results.
Seat distribution talks with the JD(U) are also going to be tricky. In 2020, the party contested 115 seats, while the BJP fought for 110, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) for 11, and the HAM for seven. However, this time, there's one more element to the mix: Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Citing its current strength, the BJP would want to contest on a higher number of seats than the JD(U). But Nitish is unlikely to budge on this as it would directly affect his prospects at the post-poll negotiating table.
The 'PK' Factor
A slew of moving parts will define this year's Bihar election. There is also the ‘PK' or Prashant Kishor factor. While 15% of voters want to see him as chief minister, his Jan Suraaj party got 10% votes in the by-polls held last year. Which way would 'PK' strike? The Muslim-Yadav vote bank of the Mahagathbandhan, or the upper caste and OBC/EBC base of the NDA? The answer, as they say, is blowin' in the wind.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
