On the day when the Janata Parivar announced its reunification at a press conference, a Congress leader said to me, "If Lalu and Nitish are part of an alliance, rest assured they will work against each other rather than working against either us or the BJP".
Hardly an off-the-cuff remark, given the history of the two Bihar powerhouses.
In the last few days, the Janata Parivar has cut a sorry figure with both Lalu and Nitish making their competing ambition clear - each wants to return to power in the state. The election, in just a few months, is a do-or-die contest for BJP President Amit Shah, and a test of Rahul Gandhi's new avatar as a re-energized leader of the Congress. With all that thrown into the mix, the survival of the Janata Parivar demands either a miracle or the honest acknowledgement of their absolute compulsion to stick together in a fight against an aggressive BJP.
On his last trip to Patna in April, it was widely speculated that Amit Shah and his confidantes had initiated a channel of communication with a senior leader in Nitish Kumar's party, the Janata Dal United or JDU. There were rumours that this meant the BJP was open to reconnecting with the JDU after their bitter break-up before the national election. Nitish, who has shared with other members of the Janata Parivar his reservations about Lalu wanting to be the alliance's Chief Minister, had allegedly decided that the BJP was not a complete no-no, at least for early talks.
Another factor that has widened the Nitish-Lalu rift is the latter's insistence on including Jitin Ram Manjhi in the Janata Parivar and his vocal criticism of the Nitish government. Manjhi, who was picked by Nitish as his replacement when he quit office for nine months, refused to make way for Nitish's return till he was expelled from the JDU.
Sources in the JDU say that Lalu's team is exploring a pre-poll alliance with Manjhi and the Congress, and may try to tempt other members of the Janata Parivar to consider this grouping. The Lalu-Congress bonhomie is well-documented; the Left front, although a spent force in the state, is reportedly willing to back this alliance.
Should Nitish forge an alliance with Lalu's Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD, most of the upper-class vote could turn to the BJP. After all, this section heartily backed the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and is against Lalu's perceived appeasement of the Dalit, Mahadalit and Muslim vote. On the other hand, should Nitish not ally with Lalu, he stands to lose the OBC and backward class vote which could skew more heavily towards Lalu if he is able to tie up with Jitin Ram Manjhi. Ever since Nitish appointed Manjhi the Chief Minister of Bihar, his stature has lifted considerably in the Mahadalit community.
Many in the Nitish camp believe that the party would be better off forming an alliance with the Congress and the Left. In the national election, the Muslim vote (16% in Bihar) accrued largely to the Congress-Lalu partnership, spurning Nitish for his love-hate relationship with the BJP. Others believe that Nitish's decision to end his alliance with the BJP over Modi may deliver gains among the Muslim population. Analysts in the state believe that unlike the Lok Sabha elections where Muslims were not completely convinced of Nitish's change of heart against the BJP now see in him, an anti-BJP option. Lalu has to consider that much of his once-loyal Yadav base is no longer disinterested in the BJP.
Bihar's upper caste that constitutes the Kayasthas, Bhumihars, Thakurs and Brahmins and accounts for about 15 percent of the total population of the state, gave the BJP 30 percent of its votes in the Lok Sabha election.
So Lalu and Nitish both need each other to a not inconsiderable degree. Both leaders now find themselves struggling with the caste equations they have leveraged and heightened in the last few decades.
Eventually, it will not be the Janata Parivar which claims to be the
maha-milaap (the mega union) of socialists , but the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, who could play the role of kingmaker in any pre-poll alliance.
For now, Lalu and Nitish, the two strongest and wiliest members of the socialist raj, are trying to outwit each other. Nothing like an election to confuse the line between friends and enemies.
(Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will be published later this year.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.