On Gandhi Jayanti, the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar released the findings of its statewide caste survey, intensifying the battle for the OBC (Other Backward Class) vote and setting the opposition agenda for 2024. Nitish Kumar also called an all-party meeting to discuss the caste report. He has been batting for "jiski jitni sankhya bhaari uski utni hissedaari".
The INDIA bloc parties, including the Congress, have been pitching for a caste census at the national level for scientific and targeted welfare of OBCs. It is widely seen as an attempt to revive Mandal 2.0 as a counter to the BJP's Kamandal 2.0, that is the grand inauguration of the Ram temple in January.
Nitish Kumar deserves credit for the speed at which the caste count was carried out and the report released - something even Manmohan Singh in 2011 and Siddaramaiah during his previous 2013-18 tenure could not achieve, despite promises.
The data shows that a whopping 84% of the population in Bihar belongs to the OBC (Backward Caste+ Extremely Backward Class), Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes category. Rahul Gandhi praised the findings as historic and reiterated that only three out of 90 secretaries in the Indian government belonged to OBCs. On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed it a tool of divisive politics.
The numbers thrown up by the caste survey are in line with the earlier estimates, more or less - the minority population of 17%-18% largely seem to have classified themselves as Backward Caste or Extremely Backward Class (12%) and the balance 5%, under the general category.
All eyes will be on Nitish Kumar's next move. Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi have earlier supported the demand for a higher reservation of 50% for OBCs and the removal of the cap on reservations. They hope to galvanize the OBC voters through this demand and make a serious dent in the BJP vote.
Nitish Kumar is trying to emerge as the champion of OBCs, a position which Modi enjoys currently, and corner the BJP.
Today, the BJP receives the highest OBC support (44%), riding on the Prime Minister's OBC identity and creating a wedge between dominant and non-dominant EBCs. INDIA boasts of parties in the Hindi heartland that are dominated by Yadav and Jat politics.
The lower OBCs have not benefited from current quotas; 25% sub-caste are occupying 97% of government jobs and admissions, according to the Rohini Commission report in the media. The BJP has used this well to create a trust deficit between lower and upper OBCs.
The BJP could drive home the narrative that if EBCs have not benefited in the current reservation system, how can they get justice in a larger reservation pool. If the narrative of the opposition gains momentum, then the BJP could even implement the recommendations of the Rohini Commission in the Winter session of parliament.
It could propose a quota within quota for lower or extremely backward OBCs, which is likely to be higher than the sub-limit for upper OBCs like Yadavs, Kurmis etc, as they have been the largest beneficiaries of the current system.
While this could permanently alienate upper OBCs like Yadavs from the BJP, it could consolidate the party's hold over EBCs. The BJP got 65% EBC vote in Uttar Pradesh in 2022 and 45% in Karnataka per Axis-My India exit poll.
This can be a backup plan for the BJP to checkmate Nitish Kumar's Mandal 2.0 project, the party's ultimate aim being to divide Hindu votes through this census.
The caste survey is a double-edged sword for the opposition. Ostensibly, the demand is for the welfare of OBCs, but this will lead to an increase in the demand for OBC reservation, which could put off middle and rich socio-economic class 35%-36% voters and general category voters (12%-15%) at the national level.
It could also be turned around by the BJP. It can say the Congress is demanding reservation for minorities (not allowed by Constitution) which could increase confrontation and result in polarisation.
The BJP, through their labharthi schemes, has given a class tadka to caste politics. This has fostered identity issues - the voter is OBC first or poor/middle class later, and vice versa. Politics has moved beyond caste politics, even in the Hindi heartland. Development, beneficiary status, and leadership have become very important.
Only 4% of the people cited caste as a reason for voting for a particular party in UP in 2022. It has been somewhat able to break caste barriers, besides the trump card of Hindutva and nationalism, to unite OBCs under its umbrella.
Backward Castes and EBCs are not a homogenous vote bloc, and even in Bihar, may not have the impact that the INDIA bloc hopes for. It could open up a Pandora's Box. This could increase demand for an EBC chief minister and/or a deputy chief minister - both positions are currently occupied by upper OBCs. INDIA was being shown ahead of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) by surveys, even as the Janata Dal United switched sides before the caste survey.
Yadavs hold seven of the 31 minister spots in Bihar, which is 22.6% and 1.5 times their population strength. Similarly, four ministers, including the Chief Minister, belong to the Kurmi-Koeris. This is double their proportion of the population. It is often said that charity begins at home.
Nitish Kumar and INDIA have thrown the caste census dart in the 2024 game hoping this will power their campaign and enable them to make a dent in the BJP's OBC support, without which it will be difficult to beat them.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.