Opinion: Does Nitish Kumar Have A Plan B? INDIA Bloc Must Read The Signs

Janata Dal United (JDU) spokesperson KC Tyagi's statement on 8 January in the Indian Express is the clue that there are serious issues within the INDIA alliance and Nitish Kumar is not happy. Tyagi is an experienced political leader. He is not a loose cannon. He is known in political circles for his measured statements. Therefore, his frontal attack on the Congress must be taken seriously. He said, "The way the Congress chief responded to media questions on Saturday on this (convenor question) did not go down well with us. We are running out of time and ideas. We still have time to catch up. But it is Congress that has to show urgency to see a vibrant INDIA bloc."  

Tyagi further said, "The Congress has embarked on its Yatra. Rather, it should have been an INDIA Yatra in which all top leaders could have participated. The Congress did not consult any of its allies before charting its Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. We welcome the Yatra. It is not a good time to start it. India is still confused. What if parliamentary elections are announced soon after the Ram Temple opening?" 

First, it has to be understood that he can't give a statement of this nature without consulting party boss Nitish Kumar. Tyagi has targeted two of the top leaders of the Congress. He has attacked party president Mallikarjun Kharge on the issue of the INDIA convenor, and Rahul Gandhi on his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. He has effectively suggested that the Congress has failed to lead INDIA, as the grand old party is not really showing urgency in crafting a counter-narrative to the BJP's Hindutva pitch. He has also hinted that the Congress is taking decisions unilaterally without consulting allies. These charges are serious, and if not addressed immediately, can precipitate a bigger crisis in the opposition bloc.

It is common knowledge that Nitish Kumar is extremely ambitious and that he is eyeing the top job - prime ministership - and to that end, becoming convenor would be the first step. When he walked away from the NDA and joined hands with Lalu Yadav, it was assumed that in due course he would hand over the baton in Bihar to deputy Tejashwi Yadav and move on to a bigger role in national politics. It was widely speculated that Nitish Kumar could be the ideal candidate to challenge Narendra Modi and a good choice for INDIA's prime ministerial candidate.

Nitish Kumar has always fancied his credentials for the top job. Like Modi, he has been Chief Minister of a state for more than 10 years. Like Modi, he belongs to the OBC (Other Backward Classes) community. Nitish Kumar is a Kurmi. Kurmis are the most powerful and politically savvy caste within the OBC community after Yadavs in north India. His presence can restrict the flow of OBCs towards the BJP, which can substantially weaken the ruling party in the Hindi-speaking belt.

Unlike Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin and Kharge, Nitish Kumar comes from the Hindi belt. This is the core area for the BJP. Here the BJP has won more than 90 per cent seats in the 2019 election. If Modi has to be stopped from becoming Prime Minister for the third time, then the INDIA bloc has to win major seats in Hindi-speaking states. Here the Congress is involved in a direct fight with the BJP, and it is believed that if Nitish Kumar is projected as presumptive prime minister, a large section of OBC voters can be swayed towards the Congress and other parties like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. 

So what is the problem?

It is this - even within the INDIA bloc, Nitish Kumar is not trusted so much. His moves are viewed with suspicion. Even his old friend Lalu Yadav is often hard-pressed to predict his next political move. The Bihar Chief Minister is also perceived to be extremely self-centred and very secretive.

The other problem is that Nitish Kumar's commitment to secularism is doubtful. Ideologically, he is a socialist but for the sake of political power, he has never had any qualms about dallying with the BJP. In fact, since his exit from the Janata Dal in the 1990s, he has spent more time with the BJP than his old socialist friends. He was a minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee's cabinet. Then he became the Chief Minister of Bihar with the BJP's help and continued till 2014. Once Modi became Prime Minister, he ditched the BJP and joined hands with friend-turned-rival Lalu Yadav. After they won the Bihar election together, he swapped alliances again, dumping the RJD to go back to the BJP in 2017. Then another somersault in 2022 and a reunion with RJD.

Given this history, when Nitish forced Lalan Singh to resign as national party chief of the JDU and took his place, many assumed it was a precursor to another switcheroo.

It is not without reason that in the INDIA bloc meeting on December 19, Mamata Banerjee proposed that Kharge should be projected as PM face. Arvind Kejriwal immediately seconded that proposal. Mamata and Kejriwal both harbour prime ministerial ambitions. Their proposal was seen as an attempt to scuttle Nitish's chances.

Mamata Banerjee's move was curious. Just a day before the meeting, she had said INDIA should not project anyone as PM candidate for the 2024 elections. The very next day, she pulled a surprise. I was told by a senior INDIA bloc leader that Mamata Banerjee is not very enthusiastic about Nitish Kumar becoming convenor. I was told even Stalin had reservations, though the Congress was on board with making him INDIA convenor. The Congress is believed to be working on building consensus and Nitish Kumar's name could be announced soon, I am told. 

The Congress has understood that Nitish Kumar is upset. After the INDIA meeting, both Kharge and Rahul Gandhi spoke to the JDU leader, presumably to mollify him.

After Tyagi's outburst, it is clear that Nitish is still upset. The general election is less than three months away. The BJP is already in election mode (is it ever off?) and has prepared to ride the Ram Mandir wave. The BJP is also in high spirits after winning three state elections.

If the INDIA bloc is not seen as united, it will not be taken seriously as a challenger. The opposition led by the Congress has to understand that it is up against the most dynamic election machine in independent India. It will require special talent to defeat the BJP. The sooner they understand this, the better it will be. Otherwise, the battle will be lost long before it began.

KC Tyagi's outburst is a warning. 

(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.