It may be too early to bet big on it, but after years of false starts and photo ops that fizzle out, the elusive opposition unity, the biggest X Factor in the great fight of 2024, finally appears to be taking shape. And it's Nitish Kumar who appears to have decided to play the role of a shepherd to corral almost everyone against the man called Narendra Modi. The jury is still out on whether he will succeed in his new role, but one can say that he has had a good start. The contours of the unity look very encouraging, and a shape, more than a few wisps of smoke, appears to be emerging.
A productive meeting with Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi notwithstanding, if opposition unity was to take a concrete shape, Nitish Kumar will have to make several more trips to Delhi and other state capitals. His visits to Kolkata and Lucknow are works-in-progress. The Bihar Chief Minister first met Mamata Banerjee, which managed to bust the notion that she is intent on undercutting the Congress, and she hinted that she is not driven by ego. If opposition unity is to happen, and she has to share the burden with the Congress, then she is okay with that. This is the real breaking news and should really worry the BJP.
Though the meeting with Akhilesh Yadav was not as categorical in terms of taking the narrative forward, at least, it has given a hint that if marshalled well, then Akhilesh Yadav can be an active player in this game, and he won't be a stumbling block. His only worry is that the Congress should not act like a big brother, and UP should be left to the Samajwadi Party. Currently, he can take solace in the fact that under his leadership, the party might not have formed the government in UP, but its social base has widened by 10 per cent in the assembly elections, which is the highest vote percentage in the history of the Samajwadi Party.
One can argue that in 2019, when Akhilesh Yadav aligned with Mayawati and still belying all expectations, could not stop the Modi juggernaut, one should have high expectations of Akhilesh Yadav sans Mayawati. But let's not forget that the Samajwadi Party and the BSP have been traditional rivals and were fighting with each other to capture the seat of power in UP for more than two decades. The BJP and the Congress played second fiddle in this battle. If Mayawati was sworn in as chief minister four times, then Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav, together, were also sworn in as chief ministers four times. Their party cadres have been fighting with each other over the years. So, to assume that both parties can come together and that their partymen and sympathisers will transfer their votes to each other is expecting too much. It's common knowledge in UP that Dalit and OBC, especially the Yadav community, are anything but friends. Therefore, the mere meeting of leaders will not lead to the meeting of souls. Therefore, it is no surprise that in UP, it is argued that if Mayawati contests alone, then it might indirectly help the Samajwadi Party as Dalit voters will not vote for the BJP, a vote that can possibly go to the BJP if Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav are together.
In this exercise, one person has been completely forgotten, and that person is Tejashwi Yadav, whose family is facing the wrath of the Modi government. His whole family has been inundated with notices from the CBI and the ED and subjected to raids and interrogations. Tejashwi accompanied Nitish Kumar on his earlier visit to Delhi and to Kolkata and Lucknow this time. Nitish Kumar wants to kill the rumour that there is acrimony between the JDU and RJD; both parties seem to be firmly together, despite all the rumour-mongering and conspiracy theories. This can also be seen as Nitish Kumar having taken Tejashwi under his wings to train him for the future. But the underlined message is more potent, and that should really make the BJP uneasy.
The togetherness of Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi is building a new edifice for Mandal politics vis-a-vis BJP's 'Kamandal'. Under Modi's leadership, Hindutva has scaled unprecedented heights. Welfare schemes of the central government have further consolidated the BJP's social base. A section of the OBC voters has gravitated towards the BJP in UP and Bihar. These two states comprise 120 Lok Sabha Seats. If the consciousness of social justice could be robustly revived again, then it has the potential to dampen the spirit of Hindutva in the bastion of Mandal politics.
The collective presence of Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi and Akhilesh Yadav in one frame in Lucknow is strong symbolism. It also sends a signal to the OBC voters that real representatives of OBC politics have united once again, and there is no need to look at the pseudo-practitioner, i.e., BJP. It is no coincidence that all three have demanded that the Modi government should carry out a caste-based census. The BJP is very uncomfortable with this development because this goes against the basic grain of Hindutva. Rahul Gandhi has extended support too by demanding a caste census, and the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has written a letter to the prime minister demanding the same.
Meanwhile, K Chandrashekar Rao has also said that his party, BRS, is willing to work with the Congress, provided Rahul Gandhi is not the face of the opposition in the 2024 elections. This is very encouraging, as Kharge has already announced that the Congress would not insist on playing the dominant role. KCR, Mamata Banerjee and Akhilesh Yadav, until now, were considered to be unwilling to walk with the Congress.
This shows that Nitish Kumar's initiative is resulting in a kind of cohesion that was missing until very recently. An ideological understanding is also emerging. If anti-communal-secular politics is married to social justice that believes in constitutionalism, then along with the arithmetic, social chemistry is also being cooked in the opposition's laboratory. The game looks interesting and can't easily be ignored.
(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.