Opinion | Now That Champai Soren Is Finally With BJP, Can He Help It Win?

The former Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Champai Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) today, ending days of speculation. 'Tiger', as Soren is fondly called, is a strong tribal leader with a credible image. He is considered the right-hand man of JMM patriarch Shibu Soren and played a big role in the movement to carve out a separate state of Jharkhand from Bihar. 

With Soren's entry, the BJP hopes to make a dent in the ST vote bank of the INDIA bloc, comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). It also boosts the BJP's chances of making a comeback in the state by exploiting the anti-incumbency against the Hemant Soren government amidst allegations of unfulfilled promises. 

BJP's Need For A Stalwart Leader

Champai was appointed as Chief Minister after Hemant Soren was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in February 2024. Under his leadership, the INDIA bloc won five of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, three more than the last time. The INDIA bloc, meanwhile, won all the five ST-reserved seats in the state, highlighting the anger in the community over the arrest of its leader. While the opposition alliance bagged 37% votes - a rise of 5 percentage points - the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered a vote share of 48%, a drop of 8 percentage points over the previous general election.

Following the BJP's losses, questions had been raised about the leadership of party president Babulal Marandi former chief minister and Arjun Munda. In that context, the entry of Champai Soren fulfils to some extent the BJP's need for stalwart tribal leaders. 

Why Champai Left

Perhaps the abrupt manner in which Champai Soren was asked to vacate the top post after the release of Hemant Soren hurt the 'Tiger'. The JMM was born out of a struggle for a separate state. But, over the years, like any other regional party,  it has become a family-controlled unit. 

The STs account for 26.2% of the state's population and hold the key to government formation. There are 28 ST-reserved seats, sixteen of which are located in the Santhal Pargana (northeast) and Kolhan (south) regions. The BJP could manage to win just two ST seats in 2019, down from 11 in 2014. This poor show is often cited as one of the main reasons for its loss in 2019. In contrast, the INDIA bloc swept these two regions in 2019, winning all the 16 seats. 

Champai himself hails from the Kolhan region, which includes East and West Singhbhum and Saraikela districts, and houses the industrial town of Jamshedpur. While the BJP had won five of the 14 seats here in 2014, in the next assembly election, it drew a blank. The party now hopes Champai Soren's name will help it not only reverse its fortunes in the region but also bag a section of ST votes in the state overall, while it tries to consolidate OBC, upper caste and SC support.

A Close Contest In Jharkhand

Of the four states that will see elections to their assemblies this year - the other three being Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra and Haryana - Jharkhand is the only one where the BJP is not in power. As of now, the battle in the state is shaping up to be a close, seat-by-seat contest. A bulk of the BJP's weak seats are in Santhal Pargana and Kolhan divisions, where Champai can help. In the latter, the huge Kurmi population has turned against the JMM as their demand for being included in the ST category hasn't been met. 

New entrant Jairam Mahato's Jharkhandi Bhasha Khatian Sangharsh Samiti (JBKSS) could play spoilsport here. In this year's Lok Sabha polls, its entry split the opposition votes, which ultimately helped the BJP. The party bagged over 1.25 lakh votes in three seats. 

The Sarna Code

There's another social factor. In recent years, many tribals have converted to Christianity, which has caused social friction. Tribal Christians dominate politics, especially in the JMM. The BJP has been exploiting these tensions, with most ST voters backing it being 'Sarna' tribals, who follow nature worship. Even so, in the Lok Sabha polls, the INDIA bloc got some support from them as it promised to fulfil a long-time demand that the BJP has been reluctant to consider: the implementation of a 'Sarna Code', which proposes a separate religious code for tribals who follow the Sarna religion. 

As Chief Minister, Champai Soren had promised to fulfil this demand and even accused the Centre of dragging its feet on it. It will be interesting to see how he now manages to balance this. Undoubtedly, the JMM will try to play up this 'doublespeak' to attack Soren.

Battle Lines Drawn

The JMM hopes to consolidate its SC-ST-Muslim vote base, which accounts for 50% of the state's population. It also hopes that Mahato's party will split the Kurmi vote, damaging the prospects of the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). It is also counting on the Congress to tap some urban voters after its improved national performance in the Lok Sabha election.

On the other hand, the BJP is working on a state-level narrative to highlight the failures of the Hemant Soren government and its non-fulfilment of promises like unemployment allowance to youth, stove expense allowance to women, etc. It's also hoping to attract young voters by highlighting the state's jobs problem and its own promises in the recent Union Budget. 

A keen battle is on the cards. Champai's entry definitely strengthens the BJP, but it remains to be seen whether he can ultimately deliver a win. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author