Simultaneous elections in 2024 could bring down the spending on polls by 20 to 30 per cent, depending on how effective the Election Commission is and how cooperative political parties are.
An even more significant drop in election expenditure is possible if the voting days are brought down to less than two weeks, maybe even one week. This is possible now in the post Chandrayaan-3 and G20, with the kind of IT and AI application initiatives demonstrated by India in the last couple of years. With the interlinking of the Aadhaar ID with the voter card, we are already prepared.
The expenditure has been doubling between consecutive general elections. My analysis over the years has estimated Lok Sabha election costs at 30,000 crores in 2014, which surged to 60,000 crores in 2019. In recent years, state election spending has also gone up.
The "One India, One Election" proposal alone is unlikely to lead to a significant or substantial reduction in election expenditure. This is especially true unless the current practices of political parties related to candidate selection, campaigning, and indulging incumbents, are restrained; it is also critical for the Election Commission of India to become more effective, and for its code of conduct to be adopted by all parties.
Simultaneous polls on different levels are likely to reduce the spending - marginally or visibly - on travel, printing, media campaigns, and booth-level logistics. Without curbing voter inducements, poll expenditure will not reduce significantly.
Addressing the issue of voter inducement, which I described earlier as the "Note for Vote" phenomenon, (Good Governance, Sage 2013), is a vital part of poll reforms. The One Election proposal should curb this trend of increasing poll spending.
The preoccupation with polls and the constant courting of voters should become a thing of the past. Polls should become routine for citizens, parties, and government functionaries, and preoccupation with the campaign should end within one week. The culture of cooperation and collaboration among political aspirants beyond polls should begin now. The government can now champion such big reforms as well.
While the election to Lok Sabha and state assemblies could be simultaneous, as they are legislative bodies, the polls for Panchayat and Municipalities are state-operated. These are local self-governing bodies. It is worth considering whether polls at this level could be on a non-party basis, even on an experimental basis.
Without any new initiatives to address the constant campaign menace, the total poll expenditure at all levels is likely to be Rs 10 lakh crore. The cost of the Lok Sabha election in 2024 alone is projected to be around Rs 1,20,000 crore. For states and local bodies, it will be far more. It is all the impact of the Lok Sabha polls.
These estimates are drawn from field studies and tracking of campaigns spread over 20 years, three general elections, state elections, and case studies in select municipalities and villages.
With the widespread presence of political parties in even remote corners of the country, and the surge in competitiveness at the grassroots level, the electoral process has disrupted local harmony in some states.
My more recent book, Next Big Game Changer of Election in India (2022), flagged the initiatives and paradigm shifts needed in our electoral perceptions, provisions, and practices.
(Dr N Bhaskara Rao is a pioneer in survey research, a social scientist, and a political analyst.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.