(Ashok Malik is a columnist and writer living in Delhi)In a sense, the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) is the 'cabinet within the cabinet'. Revived by the UPA government in 2004 - the NDA had preferred the Cabinet Committee on Security as its brains trust - the CCPA is located at the intersection of governance and politics. It is empowered to take decisions in the absence of the prime minister. Logically, its members should not just be capable administrators but astute, ear-to-the-ground politicians, giving a political twist to policy.
Since political acumen and understanding of popular sentiment appear to have been the UPA's Achilles' heel, it would be pertinent to study this phenomenon using the CCPA as a tool.The CCPA consists of 10 members. Two of them, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Defence Minister AK Antony are members of the Rajya Sabha and will not contest the 2014 election. Eight others are members of the Lok Sabha. Of them, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar has said he will not be seeking office in the 2014 election.
That leaves us with seven names. Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh (Baghpat) and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath (Chhindwara) are contesting from seats they have won several times. Yet, the Jat vote in western Uttar Pradesh is gravitating towards the BJP and may not be as much of a cinch for Ajit Singh as previously. What of Kamal Nath? In 2009 he had won by 121,220 votes. Going by the Madhya Pradesh elections of 2013, if votes of the seven assembly segments that make up Chhindwara Lok Sabha constituency are added, the BJP is ahead by 120,859 votes. This is lower than Nath's winning margin in 2009 - but by a perilously thin 361 votes.
Now we're down to the last five on the list. Telecom Minister Kapil Sibal faces a tough battle in Chandni Chowk. Finance Minister P Chidambaram is widely predicted to lose Sivaganga. In Farrukhabad, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid could finish as low as third or even fourth, goes the political wisdom. In Srinagar, Renewable Energy Minister Farooq Abdullah will battle a double anti-incumbency. His party, the National Conference, runs Jammu and Kashmir as well and its rival, the PDP, is extremely optimistic.
The one who remains is Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. He is hopeful of re-election from Solapur and is probably the best placed among CCPA members hoping to be a part of the next Lok Sabha. That would be cold comfort. After all, what does it say for a government when almost its entire war council - the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs itself - seems headed for defeat in a popular election? This is almost a parable for the UPA's past five years.
Postscript: Till he resigned from the UPA government a year ago, MK Alagiri was also a member of the CCPA. If it helps, this DMK politician is unsure of re-election in Madurai, fighting both a factional war within his party as well as the opposition AIADMK.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this article. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.