Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due in the US soon after he wraps up his France visit. There is widespread speculation on the result of this visit, given a series of actions by the new US administration that appear to be directed against India. These include the widely publicised issue of deportation of illegal Indian migrants, and the lesser-known fact that President Donald Trump has just put a full stop to India's development of the Chahbahar port in Iran by withdrawing the exemption for New Delhi to provide aid to Afghanistan. That's not all. There's a savage announcement of tariffs that has already hit the Indian stock market and dragged the rupee to a historic low. Despite a very optimistic press briefing by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, strengthening bilateral relations will likely be an uphill task, for both sides.
Deportations As Noise
First, that issue of the deportation of illegal migrants and its outflow. The Opposition noise was misplaced, in that the report of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement has statistics that show that this has been going on for years. It has so far been a totally non-discriminatory exercise involving citizens of some 228 countries, including close allies like the UK. There have been charter flights to China since 2018.
The report notes that some 37 per cent of those deported had a serious criminal background. Shackling, though inhuman, also seems to be across the board, and legal in the US. Those deported violated US law, and Indian law - which includes the Emigration Act 1983 and the Passport Act 1967 among others.
No questions there. The problem was of course, the deliberate publicity given to the exercise by the US Border chief on the 'farthest ever' deportation, which is patently false, given that five flights went to China in recent months. His timeline doesn't show any other country (other than Guatemalans and Mexicans) but does show that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is at the forefront of the drive against illegals. The problem is anti-India sentiments that have been growing, and could get worse with more 'brown skins' being publicly deported, with a reported additional 4,000-odd identified. That has now got inextricably tied up with the H-1B visa issue that led to Indian origin Congressman Shri Thanedar being targeted with racist attacks when he raised the issue. That in turn led him to sponsor a Resolution against 'Hinduphobia'.
Rising racism is not something either country will be able to deal with if it spirals. The US should be advised that while deportation is legal, deliberate humiliation is not. Besides, the truth of the matter is that jobs are not being lost to Indians but to AI (Artificial Intelligence), crossing 350,000 mid last year. This is about perception management, which both sides need to consider.
Trade Tariffs Wars Are Hurting Already
Then there is the expected arm-twisting on trade. New Delhi had been proactive on this, announcing tariff reductions in the Budget, which eliminated an entire slab of high tariff ranges, with reports suggesting more is coming. Yet, recent comments by top officials on 'enormously high' tariffs persist. The US is second to China in the 'top 10' trading partners list, but the only one with which India has a surplus ($37 bn). That says something. The new tariffs on steel and aluminum will not impact India directly, but an overly protectionist trade regime could emerge, as it did in the previous Trump era. That's no good for anyone, not even the US, as shown in an analysis of the 2019 Senate Joint Economic Committee, which showed that Trump's trade wars hurt Americans most, with the loss of some 300,000 jobs. In India, however, the pain is immediate. The rupee has weakened to a historic low even as it is rated as Asia's worst performing currency. The stock market crashed on the announcement of the tariffs, with investors losing some 6-lakh crore. No, India cannot afford a trade war, especially not now. But at least it can be argued that the tariff wars are against even the US' strongest allies.
Meanwhile, India has also changed its Nuclear Liability laws after the US lifted restrictions on three nuclear entities - Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Centre (IGCAR) and the Indian Rare Earths (IRE) - but by the previous administration. It can be expected that Trump will demand an operationalisation of the long-delayed Indo-US nuclear deal, which involves the US building nuclear reactors for India. That never happened. Expect that to be raised strongly, regardless of preferences for co-production, and relaxation of the US non-proliferation Act. That deal in turn was pushed by then President George W Bush's conviction that India was bound to be a major world power and to that end, he personally pushed it through. It's unclear whether that conviction still remains.
Academic Reservations
That it might not, is evident in recent writings. Despite the great optics of a meeting between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio immediately after the inaugural, and the Quad meeting, there are signs that India's 'strategic autonomy' is being questioned. A recent Foreign Affairs (BACK-LINK) article exemplifies the prevailing conviction among many in the US, that India is an unreliable partner to the US because it acts in its self-interest - a rather puzzling statement given that it is presumably a fundamental function of a state. Others from premier think tanks view strategic autonomy in terms of India's participation in such bodies like the China-helmed Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS (Brazil Russia South Africa) as corrosive to US security, and suggest that the US is in fact encouraging a 'regional hegemon'. Another point being made is that in encouraging India with defence ties and technology, US policy is deviating from the 'lessons of history' that rising powers should be prevented, by all means, from trying to impose their own order on the world. That is undeniably US practice, even with strong allies like the UK, whose nuclear autonomy was completely eroded, and a similar attempt was made with France. These and other arguments are being used to advise against a close US-India relationship. That is a concerning trend that needs close attention from Delhi's foreign policy mandarins.
There is every indication that while India has been extremely proactive in removing irritants of any kind, Delhi is also readying itself for a pushback. An official recently reiterated India's commitment to Chahbahar as vital for regional connectivity. There have also been stray references to India's option to meet tariffs with tariffs, as it had during Trump's first term. In France, the Prime Minister chose to emphasise on 'strategic autonomy', a concept that President Emmanuel Macron is emphatically tied to, as are others in Europe, though less vocally. Expect a larger pushback soon.
The key, finally, is whether Trump will listen to cabinet members like his National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, a realist on the China threat, and thereby on strengthening India. The problem is that Trump is already well down the road to attacking friend and foe alike with tariffs and whatever other tools are available. At this point, walking back from that stage show may be difficult. But the ground reality is this.
While the foundational Indo-US relationship has reached enviable levels with working groups on almost every topic, it has stalled for over a year. For that, both bureaucracies are to blame. While the President fumes, as he surely will, it's up to the bureaucracies on both sides to quietly and persistently push the files forward. Meanwhile, it would be advisable for Indians in the US to dial down on their triumphalism a little. India is doing well, but sometimes it is wiser to keep quiet about it.
(Tara Kartha is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
