Intense negotiations are underway ahead of the crucial assembly elections in Maharashtra. Former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray was recently in Delhi to meet Rahul Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Sharad Pawar for discussions.
The opposition alliance, MVA/INDIA, which includes the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Bal Thackeray, or 'UBT'), and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), aims to build on the momentum from the general elections and challenge the Mahayuti/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and the NCP (Ajit Pawar), by capitalising on perceived anti-incumbency.
During the general elections in 2024, the Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 21 seats, the Congress 17, and the NCP (SP) 10. The Shiv Sena (UBT) had the lowest strike rate, winning only nine of the 21 seats (43%), while Congress and NCP (SP) had strike rates of 76% and 80%, winning 13 and eight seats, respectively.
This disparity has led to concerns within the Congress and NCP (SP) that the Shiv Sena (UBT) was allocated more seats than warranted, and that this should not serve as the basis for seat-sharing in the assembly elections.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) wants to contest the maximum number of seats again in the assembly polls. The Congress also aims to contest the most seats, arguing that both the Sena and the NCP have weakened due to splits and no longer enjoy the same level of support.
In the 2019 elections, the Congress contested 147 seats, NCP (pre-split) 121 seats as part of the UPA, and the pre-split Shiv Sena 126 seats in alliance with the BJP.
The Chief Ministerial candidate is another contentious issue. Uddhav Thackeray has stated that it is up to the MVA leadership to decide whether he should be the alliance's CM candidate.
While the Shiv Sena (UBT) is advocating for a CM candidate, the Congress and the NCP (SP) prefer to go to the polls without a designated name and decide the top post based on the number of MLAs each party secures.
These are the various seat-sharing formulas under consideration:
1. A Third Each
This formula proposes that all three parties—Sena (UBT), NCP (SP), and Congress—contest approximately 90-95 seats each, leaving the remainder for smaller parties. This approach is supported by their similar vote shares (16%-17%) in the 2019 assembly polls.
2. Based On MLAs
In the 2019 elections, the Sena (pre-split) won 56 seats, the NCP (pre-split) won 54, and the Congress 44. These parties would have the first claim on these 154 seats. The remaining 134 seats would then be allocated based on current strength, historical performance, and recent general election trends.
Many MLAs from the Sena and the NCP are no longer aligned with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Given that local candidates are crucial in assembly elections, the support for seats now held by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar's factions will be a significant factor.
3. Based On Party Influence
Influence on a seat is determined by whether a party was a winner or runner-up. Since 2009, the influence of all parties except the BJP has declined in Maharashtra. In 2019, the Congress had influence over 113 seats, the Sena over 110, and the NCP over 101 - totalling 324 against an assembly strength of only 288.
Adjusting for 39 seats where the Congress/NCP was the winner and Sena was the runner-up, and 32 seats where Sena was the winner and Congress/NCP was the runner-up, the parties combined have influence over 253 seats, leaving 35 seats for further distribution.
4. Based On Party Strength Scanner
The strength scanner identifies 50 seats won by the Sena two or three times in the last three elections, 44 seats by the Congress, and 43 seats by the NCP. These 137 strong seats can be claimed by these parties. Additionally, 167 seats were won once by these parties in the last three polls, categorised as moderate. This results in a total of 304 seats, 16 more than the 288 assembly seats, allowing for adjustments due to double counting.
Regional considerations are also crucial. The Congress is strong in Vidarbha, parts of Mumbai, and Marathwada; the Sena is strong in Mumbai and Thane-Konkan regions; the NCP is strong in Western Maharashtra and parts of North Maharashtra.
The INDIA bloc sees an opportunity to leverage its strong Lok Sabha performance to secure a victory. Ticket distribution remains a challenge for NDA as well. A well-coordinated seat-sharing strategy could enhance MVA's prospects, with all parties needing to maintain unity and focus on the big picture.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author