The contest for 2024 is heating up as the Congress and the BJP both finalising their alliances. A 26-party consortium named "INDIA" is set to compete with a 38-party NDA, offering voters an option they didn't have in 2019. The presence of the Congress in "INDIA" lends stability to the opposition alliance, and the reassures voters that, given a chance, they can complete a full five-year term.
What Does The Math Look Like?
The UPA, in its earlier avatar in 2019, bagged 91 seats with a 27% vote share. The rebranded INDIA has 144 MPs in the 545-member Lok Sabha with a 37.5% vote share. On the other hand, the NDA won 353 seats with a 45% vote share. Changes like the exit of the Janata Dal (United) and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, and the entry of Ajit Pawar's NCP faction, bring down that tally to 332 seats with a 42.9% vote share. The mammoth 18% lead enjoyed by the NDA shrinks.
Category of Contests in 2024
There are four categories of contests likely in 2024, based on the 2019 numbers. In 375 seats, the BJP is likely to be in contention, while the Congress will be in the game in 261 seats. Regional parties, whether in the INDIA alliance or the NDA, are likely to be in contention in 353 seats.
Category 1 (BJP vs Congress)
The BJP and Congress locked horns in 190 seats in 2019. The BJP won 175 while the Congress, 17. The BJP recorded a lead of more than 20% in terms of vote share in these seats. The party that ranked 3rd won, on average, just a 4% vote share, implying these were mainly BJP versus Congress contests with limited role of regional parties in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Goa, Karnataka, Assam, Haryana, and parts of Maharashtra.
The Congress party's alliances are unlikely to bear fruits there and it is largely on its own. Its allies in INDIA, like the Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, and the Left parties have limited presence there. However, the third ranked party secured more votes than the margin of victory in 19 seats, and 13 were won by the BJP.
Category 2 (BJP vs Regional Parties)
The BJP and regional parties contested on 185 seats in 2019, the BJP won 128 while regional parties 57. The BJP had a lead of 7% in vote share terms on these seats. The party that ranked 3rd won a similar vote share, indicating that alliances could be a game changer there, mainly in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, parts of Bihar and Maharashtra.
The Congress party was ranked 3rd on 88 seats here. The number three party secured more votes than the margin of victory in 55 seats, and 30 of them were won by the BJP.
Category 3 (Congress vs Regional Parties)
The Congress and regional parties contested 71 seats in 2019. The Congress won 37 while regional parties 34. In terms of vote share, it was neck-and-neck with both securing 41% each. The party ranked third recorded an almost 12% vote share, spoiling the chances of the runner-up.
In these states like Telangana, Punjab, parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bihar etc. there is limited benefit of alliances, or they are already in place, or they are difficult to forge. The third ranked party secured more votes than the margin of victory in 32 seats, and 21 of them were won by the Congress.
Category 4 (Regional vs Regional)
Regional parties contested against each other in 97 seats in 2019. In 59 of them, it was a UPA versus NDA contest. The difference in vote shares between the winner and runner-up was 15%, with the third party securing just 7% vote share. The Congress and the BJP were third on only nine and five seats respectively and had a meagre 0.3% vote share each.
Alliances are already set here like Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, but changes in dynamics play a role here as some allies have crisscrossed like JD(U), Sena and NCP. The third-ranked party secured more votes than the margin of victory in 24 seats.
PM Modi's Call For 50%+ vote share for NDA
Including the Category 1 and 2 seats where the BJP won 303, it is likely to be a close fight in 43 of these seats, where the BJP placed third and spoiled the chances of the Congress (13) and regional parties (30). These seats could swing in favour of the INDIA alliance. On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of 50% plus for the NDA in the 2024 elections.
While some could brush it off, the BJP's vote share is set to increase as the party will be contesting more seats in Bihar, Maharashtra and Punjab, where allies have walked out. The target shouldn't be taken lightly by the INDIA alliance parties as the BJP achieved a similar feat in Gujarat 2022, when political pundits thought it had peaked. In Bihar alone it can gain a 1-1.5% vote share. As the BJP knows its opponents 10 months in advance, it has a lot of time to prepare and strategise to neutralise impact of opposition parties coming together.
Scenario Analysis
The BJP starts with a base of 303 seats. If there is a 5 per cent swing against the BJP on the seats it won in 2019, (implying the BJP's vote share declines by 5% and runner-up's vote share increases by 5%), the BJP's tally could decline by 80 seats, to 223. The swing could be due to local level anti-incumbency, the increase in popularity of the INDIA alliance, an inactive BJP cadre over-dependent on Modi, the Congress party's five promises gaining traction etc. To note, as per polls conducted post Karnataka results, including by CSDS, Prime Minister Modi's popularity and NDA's vote share remains intact.
On the other hand, if there is a 5% swing in favour of the BJP on the seats where it finished as a runner up in 2019, (implying the BJP's vote share increases by 5% and the winner's vote share declines by 5%), the BJP's tally could improve by 39 seats to 342. The swing could be due to a range of factors including pro-incumbency, the increase in popularity of Prime Minister Modi and the NDA, new schemes to tackle issues like inflation, unemployment, corruption, and differences within the INDIA alliance.
In effect, the BJP's range seems to be 223 seats (lower end) to 342 seats (upper end) depending upon how things shape up in the next 10 months and who seizes the narrative.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.