In the midst of a full blown India-Pakistan challenge, it is easy to forget US Vice President J D Vance's visit to India earlier this week. It was largely a private visit but its public manifestations reinforced the foundations of a bilateral relationship that has been in the throes of a shift, like other relationships of the US. But what Vance did while in India, both through his public and private engagements, was to underscore the reality that India-US bilateral ties are as much about top down management as they are about bottom-up, people-to-people engagement. The terror attack in Pahalgam, however, also made it clear that despite its not wanting to be so, the US will continue to remain an important factor in shaping the trajectory of India-Pakistan ties.
America's Pakistan Policy
That the attack in Kashmir happened during Vance's visit to India was no coincidence. Pakistan wanted Washington to hear out loud that Kashmir remains an issue despite its global marginalisation. For all the hue and cry that Pakistan made when India abrogated Article 370 in 2019, no one in the world, least of all Washington, paid it any heed. The Biden administration continued to develop its ties with India with an eye on the changing global balance of power. With the US withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan under Biden and Pakistan continuing to work closely with China, Biden's Pakistan policy was largely about providing humanitarian and economic support and some basic military engagement.
Washington Has Maintained Distance
For some time now, Washington has shown no appetite to insert itself into the India-Pakistan equation. The Trump administration is busy pulling back American global footprint from areas of the world it doesn't deem strategically important enough. Its focus remains on winding down American commitments globally so as to invest national capacities at home. During his first term in office in 2019, President Donald Trump had offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, claiming that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had requested his assistance during a meeting. This was denied by New Delhi, and since then, there has hardly been any mention of either Kashmir or Pakistan when it comes to Modi-Trump interactions.
During Modi's visit to Washington earlier this year in February, the joint statement issued by the two leaders reminded Pakistan to take decisive action against terrorist groups operating from its territory, including Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba. It specifically called on Pakistan to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai and 2016 Pathankot attacks, and to prevent its land from being used for cross-border terrorism. Pakistan had responded by calling the joint statement as "one-sided, misleading, and contrary to diplomatic norms".
The World Is Giving Up On Pak
Pakistan's continuing marginalisation in global strategy has as much to do with its own domestic dysfunctionalities as it has with a strong global campaign that India has managed to successfully launch against the terror state. Today, with its crumbling economy, social unrest, restive Balochistan and lack of global partners, Pakistan has never been more adrift. Its military has to clutch at the straws of resuscitating the Hindu-Muslim binary to keep its role and centrality intact. Even China seems no longer keen to keep on investing in an economy that seems to be becoming a black hole.
And it is here that the terror attacks in India should be seen as an act of desperation to seize some attention from Washington. Vance, the most public face of the Trump administration's diplomacy, delivered a speech in India in which he talked about how an India-US partnership has the potential to change the world. "If India and the United States work together successfully, we're going to see a 21st century that is prosperous and peaceful," Vance suggested even as he warned that "if we fail to work together successfully, the 21st century could be a very dark time for all of humanity". Unlike his other speeches, where he had criticised leaders from Europe and even Zelensky, he was effusive in his praise of Modi, making it clear that Washington viewed India and Modi as key partners in shaping the global order.
The terror attacks in India have been a reminder that there are still arrows in Pakistan's quiver that it believes will hit the target. But increasingly, such acts are generating strong backlash against Pakistan itself. The US engagement with India is of a different order today, and the inability of the Pakistani military industrial complex to comprehend this shift will force it to keep making the same mistake, again and again.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President, ORF.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
