While India enters its own season of general elections, Pakistan's poll cycle seems to be ending with Shehbaz Sharif taking over the nation's prime minister for a second term. In last month's elections, independent candidates backed by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) ended up winning 93 National Assembly seats, defying all odds and the military's will. But it could not win enough seats to form a majority government on its own. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif came in second with 75 seats, followed by the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari with 54 seats. This made some kind of coalition a veritable necessity.
After weeks of political negotiations and horse-trading, an eight-party coalition was formed, which has now assumed power with Sharif as the Prime Minister; PPP co-chair Asif Ali Zardari would be the new president. The dissonance in Pakistani polity was evident as Shehbaz Sharif in his speech thanked his older brother Nawaz, describing him as “the one who built Pakistan”, while Imran Khan's supporters called the new alliance government a “coalition of losers”.
Disenchantment Simmering
The success of PTI-backed candidates in recent elections and the inability of the military to manage the selection process in ways it would have preferred has already cast a spell over the future stability of the ruling coalition. People defied the military to vote against the Sharif-Bhutto duopoly, and the vote was so strong that despite widespread rigging and several seats reportedly being siphoned off to PML-N and other parties, PTI-backed candidates managed to win more seats than either of the two established parties. Yet, the two dynasties are now back in power and the disenchantment continues to simmer below the surface.
After ensuring that Imran Khan could not be kept away from the electoral process, his supporters are unlikely to give in. They have tasted blood against the all-powerful Pakistani military establishment. Khan's popularity remains very high. Despite being in power till 2022 and providing shambolic governance, Khan has managed to preserve his identity as an outsider to the system, thereby proving to be an effective challenger to both the military and established political parties. The military's crackdown on him and his supporters made him even more popular as he gained sympathy for being the target of an establishment hell-bent on keeping him out of the political process.
Khan Continues To Be Popular
Now, with an unstable coalition in power, Khan will continue to wield influence from behind the bars, seeking to disrupt the functioning of the government with a sizeable number in Parliament. By sitting in the opposition, he is also ensuring that he is seen as not compromising on his anti-corruption plank. The coalition has no one who can match his charisma or his credibility. That the PPP decided not to join the government suggests that it is already concerned about its future by being associated with a seemingly discredited coalition. It is therefore trying to maintain its distance, though it is far from evident whether there are any takers for this in Pakistan anymore.
For a country that is reeling under multiple crises, this is the worst possible outcome. The kind of policy reforms that are needed to manage the gargantuan challenges the nation faces stand in direct contrast to the nature of the government that is being formed. A ragtag bunch of discredited parties are no match for the difficulties Pakistan is facing on every front. The economic situation is particularly dire, with inflation sky-high and state bankruptcy on the cards. For foreign lenders, some semblance of political stability is a basic necessity for moving forward with financial support. The PML-N-led coalition, which few expect to last long, is hardly likely to inspire any confidence.
The Chaos Will Get Worse
But it is the domestic challenge that is the biggest one. Political polarisation in Pakistan is at an all-time high and the military is facing a challenge unlike any in recent times. Khan and his supporters, buoyed by their remarkable electoral performance, will ensure that any meaningful governance is almost impossible in the absence of some kind of political reconciliation—which seems unlikely any time soon given how the military went all out to end Khan's political career, and failed.
Those who have formed the new government in Pakistan do not seem enthused by the prospect of running the country, but those who are outside in the opposition are basking in the glow of a mandate that came their way despite all the tactics of the establishment.
And this is what makes Pakistan's immediate future fascinating as well as troubled. For those in India who were looking forward to some kind of India-Pakistan rapprochement post-elections, a word of caution: the chaos in Pakistan is likely to get worse before it gets better.
[Harsh V. Pant is a Professor of International Relations at King's College London. His most recent books include 'India and the Gulf: Theoretical Perspectives and Policy Shifts' (Cambridge University Press) and 'Politics and Geopolitics: Decoding India's Neighbourhood Challenge' (Rupa)]
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.