The stage is set for the final leg of election campaigning in Karnataka. So far, the Congress has kept the focus firmly on allegations of corruption, poor governance and anti-incumbency against the Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP government. Despite repeated comments from the BJP, including from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, targeting Rahul Gandhi, the state Congress has diligently skirted a "Modi versus Rahul Gandhi" poll conversation from taking center-stage.
Congress's campaign managers seem clear that an overarching Rahul Gandhi versus Modi narrative may negate potent local issues like the "40% Sarkar" allegation against the state government, which the Congress feels will work firmly in its favour. Taking on Prime Minister Modi only allows him to emerge as the face of the BJP's campaign, turning it into a national election rather than a local one, which several Congress leaders feel could be a disadvantage to the opposition party.
But poll narratives can shift till the last minute. As Rahul Gandhi gets set to start his 'Satyameva Jayate' campaign from Kolar - the same district where he made the controversial "why do all thieves have Modi as their surname" comment in 2019 for which he was recently convicted - will he keep the emphasis firmly local?
On the national stage, Rahul Gandhi's campaign is focused on targeting the Prime Minster on issues of corruption, lately on the Adani-Hindenburg allegations. But local Congress leaders fear that such a campaign in Karnataka could play to the BJP's advantage and shift the focus from state-level issues to those that may be electorally futile.
These fears are backed by historic electoral realities when attacks on Narendra Modi have turned counter-productive for the Congress. Even way back in 2007, during the Gujarat election campaign, Sonia Gandhi's "Maut ka Saudagar" comment was believed to have backfired spectacularly in the western state.
There are those in the party as well as observers who feel that a campaign focused on Narendra Modi - like the "Chowkidar Chor Hai" campaign in 2014 - only plays to the BJP's strengths, allowing the ruling party to do exactly what it wants - building a narrative around the Prime Minister, overshadowing substantial issues.
"The question is not whether this is right or wrong, it is whether it is electorally prudent or not," says a veteran Karnataka state Congress leader. "Modi and the BJP take on the Nehru-Gandhi family because it gives them electoral results, not because they think it's the right thing to do. We must choose not to focus on him for the same reasons," he adds.
Also, in Karnataka, the Congress, with leaders like Siddaramaiah, is seen as a credible alternative to a "corrupt and inefficient state government". The fact that the BJP has not been able to give a stable government with one Chief Minister for a full term adds to the Congress's narrative.
So, while taking on the state government and stating that it's corrupt, the subtext is a solution. One may argue that the Congress lacks that kind of credibility at the national level. While Rahul Gandhi's stature and respect was certainly bolstered with the Bharat Jodo Yatra, till he wins an election on his own, the leader remains an electorally futile proposition.
Nationally, his targeting of Narendra Modi is aimed at keeping Rahul Gandhi as the central opposition figure - the one who can take on the Prime Minister - but that objective needs to be aligned to electoral realities. Ultimately, the credibility for the opposition comes with numbers and it's important to do what it takes to get that.
Both the Congress and the BJP will be closely watching Rahul Gandhi's Karnataka campaign and it could be defining in whether this remains a battle for Karnataka or turns into a Modi versus Rahul Gandhi contest. The BJP may just pounce on every chance to turn it into the latter and it is up to Rahul Gandhi to decide how he wants to deal with the Modi 'Mind' field.
(TM Veeraraghav is the Executive Editor, BQ Prime.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.