Rahul Gandhi renewed his attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government the other day in Jaipur, with a reference to corruption allegations against BJP functionaries and even an eye-popping analogy with the film Lagaan. A pattern seems to be appearing to the Congress Vice-President's political actions after his 56-day break earlier this year. He makes shorts bursts of interventions that are loud and aggressive and aimed at capturing media space. These are interrupted by long lulls, when the day-to-day assault is carried out by his party colleagues.
There is nothing right or wrong with this approach; it is simply the path Rahul and the Congress have chosen. Perhaps the party recognises that its would-be President doesn't quite have the stamina to sustain a long-drawn engagement and will only make what one Congress functionary called "guerrilla" appearances. What is remarkable is that Rahul's essential argument continues to be exactly what it was before May 16, 2014: he is the voice of the poor and the underprivileged, the peasant and the underdog; Modi is the representative of the rich. That neat binary has not been disturbed, even if it didn't quite work in the previous Lok Sabha election.
It is possible Rahul believes a Modi in power for five years - as opposed to a Modi who was an outsider to Delhi and the product of a compelling personal narrative built around his humble family origins - will be easier to paint as pro-rich. This can conceivably be attempted at the end of Modi's term. Whether it will work and what purpose it will serve at the beginning of Modi's second year - when, whatever the other misgivings about his government, the Prime Minister's personal integrity and honesty of purpose are broadly intact - is difficult to answer. It that sense, Rahul may be raising his pitch a bit too early.
Second, is this ultra-left positioning natural to the Congress - or should Rahul be nudged towards regaining the classic centrism of the Congress? Will regional parties - including the Aam Aadmi Party - not obviously out-left the Congress on this count?
There are different views in the party. For instance, there are those who facilitated the passage of the Insurance Bill in the previous session of Parliament and would like to move ahead with the GST constitutional amendment in the Monsoon Session, arguing it is pointless to hurt the economy. There are others, including it appears Rahul, who are arguing for a more strident line. It is likely they will prevail because the leader will finally decide for the party.
Though reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha and having been turfed out of government in a series of states in the past 18-odd months, the Congress is currently punching above its weight. This is because it has 68 seats in the Rajya Sabha, only about a dozen short of the critical one-third mark needed to block a constitutional amendment in the 243-member Upper House. Gradually, starting March-April 2016, the Congress' numbers will drop but it will still have enough seats to play difficult in the Rajya Sabha should it want to.
However, Rahul's real problem is not so much in capturing media space or in Parliament, it is in getting his party ready for elections. The Congress is in the midst of a horrific phase and this is likely to continue in the coming year. It remains a marginal player in Bihar. In 2016, it could well slip to fourth place, behind even the BJP, in West Bengal and be wiped out in Tamil Nadu. It could also lose power in Assam. Uttar Pradesh in the summer of 2017 offers little hope, though Punjab, in the same period, gives the Congress a chance.
It is not until December 2017, when Gujarat sees its first non-Narendra Modi assembly election since 1998, that the Congress is in direct contest against the BJP in a major state. That is two-and-a-half years away. Meanwhile Rahul and the Congress need to sustain and prepare themselves. What is his plan? The now-you-see-me-now-you-don't activism, the photo-ops with street vendors one day and on a village charpoy the next, are all very well. Are they enough?
(The author is senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation. He can be reached at malikashok@gmail.com)
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