The largely peaceful conclusion of the three-phase assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir can be seen, in many ways, as a watershed event in the history of the region, regardless of whether it gives a clear mandate to a party, a pre-poll alliance, or results in a hung assembly.
Let's explore why these elections should be considered a reference point for analysing the evolving democratic process and the aspirations of the people in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
First, the assembly polls, held after ten years, are the first elections since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A and the first following the delimitation of assembly segments, which was completed in 2022. This is also the first assembly poll since Independence in J&K that has reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, thereby giving a voice to individuals from socially marginalised communities.
No Boycott, No Strikes
More notably, this is the first election in several decades that has been concluded without a boycott call, hartals, or any poll-related violence. And for the first time in 77 years, Hindu refugees from Pakistan, including West Pakistan Refugees (WPR), Valmikis and Gorkhas, voted in the election.
There has been a realisation among all stakeholders that if one aspires to make their voice heard, the only way is to become part of the democratic process. The banned Jamaat-e-Islami fielding its candidates as independents is a testament to this.
Second, if one had listened to the voices of most political parties before August 5, 2019, they would have heard high-pitched rhetoric claiming that the abrogation of the "temporary" Article 370 was the BJP's pipedream and that it would never be possible for any regime at the Centre-least of all the Modi government-to remove the 'Special Status' granted to Jammu and Kashmir under India's constitutional structure. But on August 5, this rhetoric was put to rest.
A New Way Of Working
Interestingly, something that was claimed to be synonymous with Kashmir, as well as Kashmiri pride and identity, was not a major pre-poll narrative. While the National Conference, in its manifesto, promised to fight politically for the restoration of Article 370 and the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan, the PDP also spoke about resolving the Kashmir issue and resuming dialogue with Pakistan. However, as the election campaign progressed, it became clear that this was not an issue that could emotionally sway the voters.
Third, the demand for the grant of statehood has emerged as a major campaign issue for the NC-Congress combine, the PDP, and others. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was bifurcated into two Union Territories in August 2019: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. The Centre has subsequently vested several critical executive powers in the Lieutenant Governor. The elected chief minister will now have truncated powers, a position somewhat similar to that of the chief ministers of Delhi and Puducherry. For Jammu & Kashmir leaders, this will be a new experience.
Lessons From The DDC Elections
Fourth, the Panchayat elections of 2014 and the District Development Council (DDC) elections of 2020 introduced a new aspirational political leadership at the grassroots level, which was not necessarily aligned with the three dominant parties: the NC, PDP, and Congress in the Kashmir Valley. Since the Panchayat polls, which were held without party symbols, it has been difficult to discern which party gained or lost on the ground. However, the DDC polls are an effective indicator, as parties contested with their election symbols.
The DDC elections were held a year after the annulment of Article 370 made an improbable scenario possible: arch-rivals NC and PDP came together, along with five other smaller parties, to form the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), popularly known as the Gupkar Alliance. However, the results were surprising. The Gupkar alliance, which was expected to sweep the polls, managed to win only 110 seats out of the total 278. The BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 75 seats, while Independents secured 50. This year's parliamentary elections shocked former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, both of whom lost.
A Slew Of New Names
In the current assembly elections, a large number of new leaders are trying their luck as independents and candidates from smaller parties. While the outcome cannot be predicted now, their presence has made the electoral process more interesting than ever.
Fifth, the National Conference and Congress, which were considered clear favourites when the election schedule was announced, have somewhat lost that initial momentum amidst the heat and dust of electioneering, at least according to ground reports. The PDP is no longer considered the force it once was. The BJP seems to have gained ground in the Jammu region compared to what was anticipated about a month ago.
The results will be known on October 8, but one cannot rule out a realignment of political parties and groups in the aftermath of the results.
(Sanjay Singh is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
