Opinion: Regime-Change Attempts in Bangladesh? PM Sheikh Hasina Thinks So

In April, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accused the United States of pursuing a regime change in her nation. "They are trying to eliminate democracy and introduce a government that will not have a democratic existence," she said. This came on the back of the US castigating India's neighbour for human rights abuses. Despite the country having done well economically under Sheikh Hasina, reports of discontent against the ruling Awami League were shared in American political circles. However, PM Hasina's allegations seem to have found purchase as India has cautioned the US about interference in Bangladeshi elections.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced visa restrictions on Bangladeshi officials in June, and was met with assurances and arguments from Sheikh Hasina's government. While a country reserves the right to offer entry to foreign visitors, government officials involved in trade and policy are often issued tangible reasoning for being denied access instead of unilateral accusations of participating in "democratic backsliding". At the same time, members of the Bangladeshi government wrote to Blinken with video evidence of Bangladesh's opposition vowing to obstruct elections, and requesting that the new American visa policy towards Bangladeshi officials apply equally to establishment and opposition. It may be seen as hypocritical that no official representative of the US is concerned about actual obstructions to free and fair elections in a democracy, as long as they stem from an opposition.

With trade and exports as a matter of constant discussion between governments, Dhaka has been forced to issue statements to mollify the US government, while also accusing them of fomenting unrest with the intent to change the government at the Centre. The US had previously imposed sanctions on officers of Bangladesh's Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and the Bangladesh Police in 2021. The same year, the US did not invite the Asian democracy to their Summit for Democracy. Earlier this year, however, senior state official Donald Lu was in Dhaka and suggested that the sanctions had made a difference, and that the RAB had been reigned in by US action.

Interestingly, the American castigation of the Islamic nation does not consider religious fundamentalism to be an issue. Despite the continued destruction of temples that exemplify the country's recent past as well as the significant but rapidly dwindling Hindu population, the American State Department chooses to instead cite the Rohingya refugee situation, in addition to internal political tussles. It is worth noting that Priya Saha, a minority Hindu woman who had the chance to bring up the persecution of minorities before former US President Donald Trump in 2019, was about to be charged with sedition in her home country. PM Sheikh Hasina disapproved of the move by her government to file charges against her, at the last minute. While the Bangladesh-America relationship has seen its fair share of challenges, attempts to improve ties with the Bangladeshi democracy were underway before the Biden administration took over, and engagement was less than adversarial. The change in the US administration in 2020 has brought forth renewed complications. Accusations of a regime change by a sitting Prime Minister are hardly trivial.

The US now cites accusations by the Bangladeshi Opposition, the Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Khaleda Zia, as further proof of political persecution. Citing opposition talking points in a democratic nation by an international entity lends credence to suspicions of foreign interference by any nation. Considering American involvement in "Color Revolutions" around the world, it is not unlikely that democratic nations fear there may be similar attempts on their soil. Selfies in the background of the recently concluded G20 meeting in New Delhi featuring PM Hasina and her daughter Saima Wazed with American President Joe Biden have found mention in several reports; however, they come without any solid conclusions about attempts to reset ties between both democracies.

With the Biden administration placing Bangladesh in its crosshairs, one looming fear is that this only helps its largest trading partner China come ever closer. While the Sheikh Hasina - Narendra Modi camaraderie is well-known, India is in no position to substitute China's role in Bangladesh's economy. The Bangladesh-China trade is almost three times the size of Bangladesh-India trade at this time, although Sheikh Hasina is known to have requested India to ensure the supply of essentials to its neighbour.

Unlike Canada, Bangladesh enjoyed a bilateral meeting with the Indian administration to discuss enhanced connectivity, trade and the repatriation of Rohingya to Myanmar, among other issues. The non-fundamentalist Hasina government has worked towards a more stable Indian subcontinent and is strategically important to countering Chinese inroads in the region. However, the US currently seems to believe that antagonizing the Hasina government is a chance worth taking, even in the face of continued Chinese belligerence in the region. 

Puppet governments benefit only western corporates in the long term, as may be seen from history. Citizens are left bereft of means to address concerns, and whole nations remain fraught in poverty or war, often both. Democracy is a serious attempt at ensuring that the will of a people is exercised, and can only be based on free and fair elections. If a nation as powerful as the United States of America chooses to wield their immense diplomatic, media and trade power to undermine elections in a sovereign democracy halfway across the world, they will only bolster claims of democracy functioning as a reason to subdue. All democracies are imperfect democracies, and while the US is a valuable example of a sufficiently functional democracy, it cannot claim leadership of the free world by favouring undemocratic alliances in other democracies. The people of Bangladesh have the right to continue to choose their own leaders through democratic means. The world will keep watch and weigh Sheikh Hasina's assurances of free and fair elections as they approach in 2024, but in the meantime, American heckling will be seen as an explicit threat of regime change.

(Sagorika Sinha is a columnist and podcaster with experience in foreign policy analysis and international relations. She also writes about domestic policy when not working on her fledgling YouTube channel)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.