Opinion: Sachin Pilot Is Going For Broke But He Has Options

The crisis in the Rajasthan Congress has deepened with Sachin Pilot reopening his front against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Upset at being denied the Chief Minister's position despite promises by the Gandhi family, Sachin Pilot sat on a fast against corruption, targeting bête noire Ashok Gehlot over his "inaction" on charges against Vasundhara Raje.

It is a last-ditch attempt by Sachin Pilot to get what he wants before the Rajasthan election later this year. With this move, he aims to kill two birds with one stone, uncover the alleged bonhomie and understanding (mili bhagat) between Gehlot and Raje, and show his rival in poor light. The BJP, rattled by the accusations, came out strongly against the corruption allegations against its previous governments under Raje.

On the other hand, Gehlot sidestepped questions on Pilot's fast during a press conference, saying his government's focus was on easing inflation and nothing would distract him from it. He did, however, say his government's Anti Corruption Bureau (ACB) had raided several corrupt officers, something which had not happened in any other state.

The Congress leadership has decided to intervene soon, with sources indicating a "major surgery" to resolve the crisis and restore unity in the party. The timing and nature of the "surgery" is not clear. But a similar response was seen when MLAs supporting Gehlot defied the Congress leadership in September over a meeting to elect a new leader, when Gehlot was being considered for the role of party president. No action has yet been taken against the MLAs. On the contrary, Ajay Maken, the General Secretary in-charge of Rajasthan, resigned.

Sachin Pilot going ahead with his campaign despite a disciplinary warning by state in-charge SS Randhawa shows that this time he may not be in the mood to relent. With eight months to elections, Pilot's fast against his own government portends trouble for the Congress in a state notorious for its revolving door verdicts.

While Pilot doesn't accept Ashok Gehlot as Chief Minister and the Congress's face for Rajasthan 2023, it seems that the Congress high command does not want to disturb status quo in the state, taking lessons from the Punjab fiasco. It feels that changing Chief Ministers at this stage will send a wrong signal to the voter, and will be taken as acceptance of the Gehlot government's failure.

Pilot feels if he is not the chief ministerial face in this election, his next shot will come five-and-a-half years later (going by the trend), and that is a long time in politics. He feels cheated that the party is taking him for granted.

With rampant infighting in the Rajasthan Congress, the BJP clearly sees a chance though its own house is not in order. It hopes that with the current appointments, CP Joshi (Brahmin state president), Rajendra Rathore (Rajput leader of the opposition), and Satish Poonia (Jat Deputy Leader of opposition), the party will be able to hold onto majority support among these influential communities.

This time around, Gehlot has gone out of his comfort zone and is relying on an extensive PR campaign to break the strong trend. He has launched pro-poor schemes and hopes that the laabhaarthi (welfare scheme beneficiary) factor working for Prime Minister Narendra Modi will work for him in his last election. Additionally, due to the infighting within the BJP, Gehlot feels he might scrape through.

But this plan can succeed only if the Congress presents a united front. The Congress needs Gehlot and Pilot to work together, combining experience and youth leadership, to win in 2023 like in 2018. However, the two openly fighting each other in public will hardly instill confidence in voters that Congress can run a strong government and implement Gehlot's social welfare promises if voted to power. 

The drama once again exposes the weakness of the Congress High Command, which has been sitting on this issue for years and has not come up with a solution. The Gandhis do not enjoy the moral authority today to bring or force a change in government in Rajasthan. Having failed once in September, new party president Mallikarjun Kharge may not want to risk another misadventure by trying to install Pilot as Chief Minister. 

When he launched his revolt in 2020, Pilot was unable to win the support of a majority of the party MLAs. His situation today is that of an employee who takes back his resignation. The best possible solution still is for Pilot to get the post of state president or Campaign Committee Chief, and have a say in the selection of candidates. However, much water has flown under the bridge.

So, what is Pilot's game plan in Rajasthan? While there is no scope historically for a third front, smaller parties have done decently well, including Hanuman Beniwal's party, BSP and Conrad Sangma's NPP.

The BJP option seems to be closed for Pilot as it may not be able to promise him the top job with many aspirants already in the party - unless he pulls off an Eknath Shinde and brings the Gehlot government down. The other option for him is to form a new regional outfit. Jat leader Beniwal has already said he is open to an alliance if Pilot were to launch his own party. The duo could look at forming a Jat-Gujjar-Meena axis.

Gujjars influence the outcome in around 30 seats. This way, Pilot could flex his power and damage Gehlot's prospects. He could even rejoin the party after proving his point. Stalwarts like ND Tiwari, Arjun Singh, Madhavrao Scindia formed their own outfits and made a gharwapsi. 

Another option for him is to join the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and lead its campaign in the state. After attaining national party status, AAP can emerge as one of the three main players on the national scene and occupy the vacuum created by the decline of the Left parties. But he may not wish to work under Arvind Kejriwal, his junior in politics.

Sachin Pilot, a Gujjar leader, is fairly popular among the youth in the state. Undoubtedly, he is the future of the party and Gehlot the past. Gujjars have a good presence in a few North Indian states. If Pilot does not remain in the Congress and forms his own party, it will be a big setback for the party. Without him, some analysts believe the Congress could even drop to the dismal 21 seats it managed in Rajasthan in 2013. 

How the Congress tackles this crisis remains to be seen. Satisfying the ambition and ego of both leaders is not going to be easy. After the Punjab episode, new president Kharge will want to weigh every option.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.