Ashok Gehlot was meant to be punished circa now for defying his party. But the only one who's still floating the idea of repercussions for the Rajasthan Chief Minister is his perpetual rival, Sachin Pilot.
Six days ago, Sachin Pilot, 45, transitioning from passive-aggressive to just aggressive, pointedly said that those who were guilty of indiscipline in Rajasthan need to deal with the consequences. He also said "the climate of indecision" in his home state must end. Ashok Gehlot, meanwhile, makes frequent statements about "the endless ambitions of young leaders" and asks them to wait their turn.
For over four years now, Sachin Pilot has been waiting for his chance to replace Ashok Gehlot, who is 71, as Chief Minister. Ashok Gehlot first became Chief Minister of Rajasthan when he was 47. The election in the state is a little over a year away - so the clock is running out. Ashok Gehlot himself has offered plenty of evidence that he will not surrender his job - and especially not for Sachin Pilot. It was to make this point that he, about six weeks ago, auteured a meeting of over 80 of the party's 107 MLAs in Rajasthan - they convened to let the Congress' fabled High Command know that if Ashok Gehlot was to be made President of the Congress, and if the party were to install a new Chief Minister as a result, it could not be Sachin Pilot.
Ashok Gehlot with Sachin Pilot (File photo)
Being top boss of the Congress was not on Ashok Gehlot's wishlist; it was a position being pressed on him by the Gandhis. First, he indicated that he should be allowed to double dip - serve as Chief Minister and President; when that was nixed publicly by Rahul Gandhi, he proffered another use case - that as President, he would decide who would be the new leader of Rajasthan (and Sachin Pilot was not on his long or shortlist).
At the time, Sachin Pilot tried to remain diplomatic - at least publicly- stating that the party would decide on next steps. Ashok Gehlot faced a two-three day cold shoulder from the Gandhis, after which Mallikarjun Kharge emerged as the party President, Gehlot apologized publicly for his loyalists' actions, and Sachin Pilot, well, waited. Till his outburst last week, which is out of character.
The odds, according to senior Congress leaders, are not favourable for Sachin Pilot. Currently, Ashok Gehlot is helming the Gujarat elections for the Congress, a challenge that is hardly uncomplicated. For one, Arvind Kejriwal replacing the Congress as the main Opposition party in the state is a proposition that keeps tossing up; secondly, the Congress is reportedly short of funds, even for a campaign for a state election. To make it clear that his Gujarat assignment does not mean that Rajasthan is open for a takeover, daily and front page advertisements, featuring his photo, publicize the various schemes of his government. It's a pure boss move. Sachin Pilot, at this time, is campaigning hard in Himachal Pradesh, speaking at three-four meetings every day, signalling that he remains obedient and committed to the Congress party.
Sachin Pilot in Himachal Pradesh
But the separate orbits must necessarily collide when Rahul Gandhi's "Bharat Jodo Yatra" enters Rajasthan, in about four weeks.The march will see Rahul Gandhi spending considerable time in one of the two states the party still governs. Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot will have to make nice - at least publicly - and be expected to appear together with Gandhi on multiple occasions.
The Pilot camp fears a false flag operation from the Gehlot dirty tricks department. They don't want Yatra optics being spoiled by black flags being shown to Rahul Gandhi demanding that Pilot replace Gehlot.
It is ironic in many ways for Sachin Pilot to call out the "indiscipline" of the Gehlot camp. In 2020, it was the younger leader who attempted to force his promotion to Chief Minister with the implicit threat of exiting the party with a group of supporters, whom he corralled for weeks at a resort near Delhi. However, the show of strength belly-flopped with Gehlot easily outsmarting him. Sachin Pilot simply didn't have the numbers to make good on his threat. So he lost his role as Deputy Chief Minister, and President of the Congress in Rajasthan, and returned to the fold to bide his time. Tick-tock, tick-tock.
The new Congress president, Mallikarjun Kharge, is proving to be a tough customer for both Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot. Both have had individual meetings with him and come away with no assurances. Sources in the Sachin Pilot camp say that he tried to remind Kharge that the Gandhis had promised him that the term of Chief Minister would be split between Ashok Gehlot and him; that too was received without comment.
Sachin Pilot's desperation was on display when, recently, he said that Ashok Gehlot being praised by the PM at a public event in Rajasthan pointed to something fishy - he said Ghulam Nabi Azad had been feted by the PM before he turned on the Congress and suggested the party look for parallels. His suggestion was snubbed by different officers of the party.
Ashok Gehlot with PM Modi
"We are trying to hunt a crocodile, not a chicken," a leader close to Sachin Pilot said to me. "(Also), Sachin Pilot has no official post anymore, so what can they now take away from him? The Congress should worry - he has nothing at stake now and many parties including the Trinamool and AAP would be thrilled to have him on board. He wants to stay in the Congress but can't because his political capital is being drained everyday. He is losing his faction. A leader can't look weak and helpless.
When Ashok Gehlot's camp delivered its performance piece in Rajasthan, the party had said it would decide on the consequences for the state in "a day or two. A month later, there's no sign of change. No wonder Sachin Pilot is fizzing with feedback - even if nobody's looking for it.
(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.