Opinion | Shankarsinh Vaghela And Congress Fight For Survival In Gujarat

Political activity is hotting up in Gujarat before the local body elections scheduled early next year. Former BJP leader Shankersinh Vaghela has floated a new political party, 'Praja Shakti Democratic Party', to contest the civic polls - announcing his presence in active politics. The Congress, after its debacle in state and parliamentary polls, is fighting for relevance in the state.

Elections have been overdue in Kheda and Banaskantha district panchayats, Junagadh Municipal Corporation, 72 municipalities, and in more than 6,000 village panchayats in Gujarat, since their five-year term ended two years ago.

The election process has been pending due to delays in implementing a 27% reservation for OBCs (Other Backward Classes) in local bodies, including panchayats, municipalities and corporations. In August 2023, the Gujarat government had accepted 27% quota.

The decision, based on recommendations by the Justice KS Jhaveri Commission, came after the Supreme Court ruled that OBC reservations must reflect population-based data. Earlier, OBC reservations in Gujarat's local bodies stood at 10%.

The delayed civic body and panchayat elections are expected to be announced any time now.

Vaghela impact - is it real?

Mr Vaghela recently announced that his new political party will fight the local body polls. A known party hopper, this is Mr Vaghela's third effort at floating an outfit, following his frequent jumps between the BJP, Congress, and the NCP.

He quit his parent party BJP in 1996 and formed the Rashtriya Janata Party, which he integrated with the Congress. Mr Vaghela left the Congress in 2017 and formed the Jan Vikalp Morcha just before the Gujarat election.

In 2019, Mr Vaghela associated with the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) and, in 2021, he rejoined the Congress just before local body elections. Now, after forming the PSDP, Mr Vaghela is once again trying to reclaim his space in Gujarat's electoral and political landscape.

Mr Vaghela's new party could end up eating into anti-BJP votes, helping the ruling party in the process. The former Gujarat chief minister has been hobnobbing with the BJP too; he had met Union Home minister Amit Shah in Gandhinagar in August.

According to reports, Mr Vaghela said he would announce details of his party's role and future strategy on December 22, during a meeting in Ahmedabad. "There is nothing like a Team B or C of any political party," he said, denying any political understanding.

Mr Vaghela wants to challenge the status quo by fielding candidates in the municipal, panchayat, and assembly elections.

Curiously, Mr Vaghela has appointed Maharana Riddhirajsinhji Parmar as PSDP president. Parmar belongs to the erstwhile royal family in Banaskantha, and has no political background, except that he has been active in the Kshatriya protests during the Lok Sabha elections. Mr Vaghela too has been making appearances at events organised by the Kshatriya Samaj.

"Mr Vaghela's party may be new but his workers are not new. They have all the tactics and strategy. They know their role. This has created a very favourable position for the BJP," says Vishnu Pandya, a senior political analyst based in Ahmedabad.

Crucial battle for Congress

The Kshatriya vote may not be an important vote base for the BJP in any of Gujarat's Lok Sabha seats, but in local polls, it may have an impact at the civic ward level. And so, the move to minimise damage by dividing the votes between the Congress and Mr Vaghela's PDSP - thus preventing any anti-BJP consolidation.

The Congress has also started preparing for the local body polls. State Congress leaders have begun review meetings to check the party's readiness at the ground level. District presidents have been given the task of identifying local issues and probable candidates.

"We started our preparation long back. We have appointed observers and district presidents to strengthen our position in the municipalities and also started training programmes for our workers in those municipalities," says Shaktisinh Gohil, Gujarat Congress chief.

For the Congress, these elections will be a fight for survival in Gujarat. The party won one seat - Banaskantha - of the state's 26 Lok Sabha seats in the parliamentary elections earlier this year. In the past two elections it had scored a duck. The party has been regularly losing its senior leaders to the BJP. Three Congress MLAs, including former Gujarat chief Arjun Modvadia, defected to the BJP this year. The Congress also lost the Vav by-election to the BJP, which increased its score to 162 of 182 seats in the assembly.

"The Congress is too weak in Gujarat because there is not a single effective leader. There are inner conflicts in the party," says Mr Pandya.

However, Congress workers rejuvenated by the party's Banaskantha Lok Sabha win - after a decade - feel that the Banaskantha district panchayat election will be a challenge for the BJP.

"The Gujarat government has been making a mockery of the democratic process by not holding elections after the term of the local bodies has ended. People are facing drinking water problems, flooding woes, unemployment, inflation; farmers' facing burden of loans etc, but the government continues to ignore the issues," says Manish Doshi, chief spokesperson, Gujarat Congress.

The elections to district panchayats and municipalities will also be a big test for the BJP. "Local elections are based on local problems, but in Gujarat, state and national issues are also effective to some extent. All parties are aware of the situation and working around it. Weak candidates won't stand a chance in the local polls," Mr Pandya said.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author