(
Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will be published in 2015.)
2014 has been an year of pleasant surprises for the BJP, from getting an absolute majority at the centre to giving Maharashtra its first ever Chief Minister from the party.
Among its spectacular accomplishments was a clean sweep in Uttar Pradesh in the national election -the BJP ended up with 70 of a possible 80 seats in its kitty.
Now, the BJP is focused on another grand ambition - to secure Jammu and Kashmir this December. This is a dream not just of the party, but also for its ideological fountainhead, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh or RSS. Kashmir has been the crowning glory of the idea of
Akhand Bharat as visualised by the
Sangh Parivaar - a map that includes Pakistan and Bangladesh as part of a larger "undivided" india.
The BJP's goal may have seemed wholly unviable two years ago, when Kashmir was in one of its more confident avatars and trying to escape the clutches of army excesses and civil rebellion. Its narrative was taking small yet significant moves away from insurgency and tourism was in full bloom.
But Kashmir in December 2014 has been brutally ravaged , not just by unprecedented floods but by opportunistic politics played by the state's two main regional parties, the National Conference and the PDP. A fringe third front (a union of about a dozen political outfits) called the People's United Front is waiting to be manipulated by the most powerful and gainful taker.
Earlier this week at a book launch in the state capital of Jammu, Indresh Kumar, RSS leader who was infamously mentioned in the Samjhauta blasts investigation, said, "There is an opportunity in 2014 to get back the lost Kashmir and 'Kashmiriyat' (peaceful coexistence and tradition) into the mainstream. The time has come for the people of Kashmir who have faced terrorism, discrimination and separatism to get Indianisation."
Kumar, who has been actively working in Jammu and Kashmir for the last decade, significantly in Jammu, strengthening the RSS support base in the region, is also the '
marg-darshak' of the Muslim Rashtriya Manch of the RSS, which is meant to consolidate the support for the party among Muslim youth - a tough task for Kumar who created a furore in 2010 when reports of his alleged involvement in the Samjhauta Blasts found its way to the public domain (nearly 70 people were killed when bombs exploded in 2007 on a train headed from Delhi to Lahore). Having worked actively with army men in the region , Kumar has actively played up the issue of the dignity that is owed to ex-army men in the Valley.
At the same event, Kumar's friend and BJP leader Subramaniam Swamy called Article 370 a temporary clause which had scope for rethink. The BJP, which is on an appeasement drive and finds itself on a sticky wicket on this controversial issue, has refused to offer specifics. Article 370 grants special status to Kashmir, allowing it to form and follow laws that are different from the rest of India. Except for defence, foreign affairs, finance and communication, all other laws cleared by parliament need the sanction of the state government.
Kumar, called the 'Muslim' face of the RSS, has played a significant role in the allotment of seats to BJP candidates in the Jammu region. The same party which during the election campaign felt the need to do away with Article 370 has decided to get a 'neutral' makeover with Kumar and his colleague from the RSS Ram Madhav given explicit directions by Amit Shah to not mention '370' and AFSPA till the state votes (Modi in his campaign had said Article 370 should be debated).
BJP spokespersons are caught in a dilemma on TV channels with their no comments and apologetic stance on AFSPA for the party does not want to alienate the Muslim voter who is in the majority in Kashmir and the army men who form a significant support base of the BJP.
Its shift in attitude is clear when the BJP, which is is contesting around 70 of the 87 assembly seats, has decided to field almost 32 Muslim candidates in Jammu and Kashmir - its highest-ever.
In a strategic move, working on caste and sectarian calculations, the J&K election team with Amit Shah at the helm of affairs has allocated tickets strategically. With 25 Muslim candidates in Kashmir alone, the party has fielded four Kashmiri Pandits and a Sikh in the Valley and three Buddhist candidates from Ladakh
In the last few years, Kashmir has seen a deepening rift between the Shias and the Sunnis , mostly over differences between the Sufi tradition and the alleged advent of Wahhabism (ultra-conservatism) in the state. Many political activists believed that this rift was encouraged by agencies to divert attention while neutralizing separatist outfits. This schism is now being used by the BJP, much along the lines of the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha polls, to divide the Muslim vote share.
The BJP is working with rebels from the National Conference and the Mehbooba Mufti-run PDP. One example is Ghulam Hassan Mir, who was the Agriculture Minister in the Omar Abdullah administration and is now part of the Third Front,which could play a significant role for the BJP in dividing the Muslim vote in the Valley.
The BJP which is calling its agenda "the healing touch for Kashmiris" is using the well-calculated move by Narendra Modi to celebrate Diwali in the state as its trump card. Local newspapers like Rising Kashmir , Greater Kashmir and half a dozen other publications carried front page adverts by the BJP with Narendra Modi's image in the background of " Jammu Kashmir ke badle haalat, chalo chalein Modi ke saath " printed in Urdu.
So will this soft secularism by the BJP work towards the dream goal of the party which made a surprise U-turn by endorsing separatist leader Sajjad Lone and expressing its desire to have him in the BJP fold? Well aware that Lone is a spent force, the BJP is playing him as a card to soften the stance of the confused Kashmir voter towards itself and to shed the 'communal' image which is one of its major disadvantages.
With the National Conference and PDP not showing any signs of interest in a post-election reconciliation, the BJP has not ruled out post-poll support from Omar Abdullah if it should fail to get the 44 seats needed to form the government. Another target on the BJP's agenda is the decimation of Mehbooba Mufti's PDP which has been public in its sentiment for the separatist cause, a factor which the Sangh Parivar and the NSA want wiped out from the valley.
While the BJP is confident of a majority in Jammu, it is banking on the division and appeasement in the Chenab region to fulfill its dream. Will it? Matter of a month.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this article. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.