(Ishwari Bajpai is Senior Advisor at NDTV; he has been a journalist for 30 years, and has covered the elections since 1984.)
After weeks of speculation and high expectation, the Budget was finally presented on Saturday. And then the heavens opened up and it poured and it poured as if the monsoon had returned.
How the two events are connected, we will never know, but perhaps we can ascribe some motive to the Gods. And depending on which side of the political-economic spectrum you belong, you can say they were tears of joy or sorrow.
And perhaps that sums up the budget best. It promised a lot and did little. While it offered innovative ideas and game-changing laws, it confined itself to limited changes, some as precursors for tomorrow.
Two new saving instruments offer some succor to those whose savings have been ravaged by inflation over the past few years. The re-introduction of tax-free infrastructure bonds should give, at the least, a rate that protects the capital invested and may be a small return above that. Gold bonds also promised in the budget, could also do that or more depending on how gold prices behave over the next few years.
The abolishment of wealth tax and a 2% surcharge on income above Rs 1 crore does not affect most people, but you have to ask whether the higher tax for the rich will not just make them generate black money.
The Finance Minister mentioned an innovative idea of encouraging people to use debit/ credit cards for purchases but first he needs to talk to his tax department that runs threatening advertisements saying " we know your credit spends... declare your full income" (or words to that effect). Hardly conducive to my buying a TV on my credit card.
Of course, it may be unfair to blame Mr Arun Jaitley for a malady that is much deeper in our psyche, and while chasing the trillions abroad is good publicity and warms the cudgels of every nationalist heart, there is a need for more to be done on the home front to curb black money. And until that is done, government finances will continue to be weak, and money for infrastructure scarce.
Unfortunately for Mr Jaitley, as for the FMs before him, it isn't easy to balance economics and politics. In a year the BJP hopes to capture Bihar and then West Bengal they could not pull the plug on subsidies however much the Economic Survey may say they are wasted. When victory margins could be close you can't afford to alienate any voter.
And everyone seems to have understood this which is why criticism has been muted. Mr Jaitley has good intentions, has indicated the trajectory and has promised to bite the bullet bit by bit. The quantum leap he started the budget speech with is the guiding principle, but we may take small steps to get there.
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