There is a strong cry for opposition unity at the national level to counter the BJP and Narendra Modi in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is getting impatient. Last week he said he was waiting for a signal from the Congress to start his mission for opposition unity. But the Congress and Rahul Gandhi don't seem to be in a hurry. Nobody knows why. Maybe the Congress is waiting for its plenary to get over. But the fact of the matter is that the opposition parties are not in hurry to come together.
When Mamata Banerjee defeated the BJP in the Bengal assembly election, she was projected as the pivot for an anti-BJP grouping but besides a few meetings and visits to Delhi, that did not lead anywhere.
Similarly, when Nitish Kumar broke ranks with the BJP and formed a new government in Bihar with the RJD, the opposition found a new star for the leadership of its anti-Modi front. Again, that did not go far.
The third event, tracked with great admiration and hope, was Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra. But opposition leaders were less than enthusiastic. More than two dozen parties were invited to join the Yatra but except for the top leaders from Kashmir, hardly anyone walked with the Congress MP for even a few miles. It was a big snub to Rahul Gandhi.
So, my question is this - is opposition unity a mirage? Or will it really take shape now, given that no party is unscathed by Modi's juggernaut?
In another time in history, the political climate which defines India today would have been ideal to galvanise opposition parties to come together and launch a massive assault on the Modi government.
Today, "galvanise" does not come to mind as we picture the opposition. The concept of "opposition unity" is wrapped in mystery. The silence is loud and jarring.
The national elections are 15 months away and despite the Modi government facing serious and troubling questions on price rise, unemployment and Adani, opposition leaders cannot be bothered to leave their burrows.
In a similar scenario in the past, in 1967, 1977 and 1989, opposition parties not only banded together but created so much disruption that it brought the Congress down.
In 1967, when the Congress was thought to be invincible, opposition unity did the impossible; the opposition dislodged the party from power in nine states. In 1977, the Congress lost the national elections for the first time and in 1989, the government, which had more than 400 parliamentary seats in Lok Sabha, crashed over the Bofors scandal.
Today, the Congress has been supplanted by the BJP, which nationally commands only 37% votes - far less than the Congress's best in its heydays (more than 42% vote share). Today there seems to be no urgency in the opposition camp; they just don't seem to be getting together.
The obvious question is why?
One has to understand that India has changed in the last few years. The basic template of politics has seen a tectonic shift. On one end, when the ruling dispensation has become more ideological, on the other end the opposition has been stripped of its ideology - "de-ideologised", if you will.
The parties that claim to fight the BJP are not driven by conviction but compulsion. A majority of the parties and their leaders have no national vision or outlook. Earlier, three main opposition political streams - the Jana Sangh and later the BJP, the socialists and the communist parties - all fighting to replace the Congress, had a clearly defined ideological understanding of India. They had a clear vision of India.
If the Jana Sangh and the BJP wanted to create a Hindu Rashtra, the Communists desired a classless society, and the Socialists dreamt of a welfare state.
Despite the differences in their visions for India's future, all the parties and their leaders had a common conviction that democracy, federalism and the Constitution had to be saved from the Congress party. That consensus is missing today. None of these parties have any idea what the India of their dreams should be. Their primary motivation is to capture power and form governments.
Mamata Banerjee is happy if she is Chief Minister in Bengal, as are Nitish Kumar, KCR (K Chandrasekhar Rao), Arvind Kejriwal, Bhagwant Mann, Jagan Mohan Reddy, Naveen Patnaik, Hemant Soren and MK Stalin, in their states. Akhilesh Yadav and Tejasvi Yadav will be more than satisfied if they could become Chief Minister someday. These leaders are not in politics for higher goals.
Nitish Kumar has no ideological compulsion - he can swim with ease with the BJP as well as the RJD, two ideological extremes. The same is true for Mamata, Stalin, Uddhav Thackeray and HD Kumaraswamy. Each has been with the BJP in the past.
It is ironic that most of the leaders in the opposition today are sons and daughters of legendary leaders who had clear ideological positions, who struggled to attain high positions.
Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Bala Saheb Thackeray, YS Rajasekhara Reddy, Biju Patnaik, MK Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren, Deve Gowda, Farooq Abdullah and Mufti Mohammad Sayed were stalwarts in their own right but their sons and daughters attained fame and power on the platter. They did not have to fight to reach the top. They are princelings. Ideology is not their forte and power is the driving force. If their parents had not been in politics and sold watches, they would have been happily doing that too. Since power and not conviction defines their politics, they can align with any group and party which can share a slice of power with them.
In their eyes, Modi and Rahul Gandhi both are the same. Whosoever offers them a better bargain and a greater share in power, will be their friend. In their assessment, if they realise that being with Modi can save them from the vice grip of government agencies, or they can be cabinet ministers at the centre or can run their governments smoothly in states, they will dump the notion of opposition unity and embrace the BJP, forgetting all political differences.
Rumours about Mayawati going soft on the Modi government has some substance. Mamata Banerjee, who was hostile to Modi, has suddenly mellowed down. This happened not without any reason. Naveen Patnaik is happy in Odisha as along as the Centre does not disturb him. So is Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. KCR and Kejriwal know that they have to fight the BJP if they have to survive in their states but in the future, they are always open to compromise. Kumaraswamy and Uddhav Thackeray have shared power with the BJP in the past. Sharad Pawar helped save the BJP government in Maharashtra in 2014. Mehbooba Mufti was Chief Minister with support from the BJP.
In this game, the Congress is the curious case. It can't go with the BJP but is not in a position to offer anything substantial to opposition parties, except for a few seats in a few states.
The Congress promises to offer an anti-BJP narrative, a counter to Hindutva, but has no structured ideology. Rahul Gandhi has but a few stray ideas. The Congress talks about democracy, constitutionalism, and federalism, but its record on these issues is iffy. Besides, the Congress is not sure the opposition parties won't ditch it if the BJP were to offer a better bargain or if government agencies got into the picture.
In 1977 and 1989, the Jansangh/BJP, communists and socialists joined hands despite deep differences because they had a basic understanding of universal values. There was consensus on basic issues. Democracy, Constitutionalism and federalism were not open to compromise. Power was important but not the only incentive. Politics of conviction was important. Leaders were born and raised in a value system that was the product of the freedom movement.
In India, the new generation of leaders has a disconnect with the freedom movement. Modi's BJP is not the same it used to be during Atal-Advani's (Atal Behari Vajpayee and LK Advani) time. For today's BJP, power is everything and it will stop at nothing to get it.
On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi is neither Sonia Gandhi nor Rajiv Gandhi, who had a different understanding of party politics. He is fighting for his own survival and is suspicious of his own party colleagues. Modi and Rahul Gandhi are the two main players, and they are nothing like their illustrious predecessors. For them, political opponents are not rivals but enemies. They have changed the rules of the game, so the grammar of political engagement has also changed.
Opposition unity has grown more complicated than before, and if we try to understand its mechanism through the old prism, it will be a mistake.
(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.