Beating anti-incumbency, the truly horrific handling of the second wave of Covid, and a huge jobs crisis, Yogi Adityanath has a standout result - for the first time in nearly 40 years, an incumbent will get a second consecutive term as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Yogi Adityanath is not yet 50 and has emerged as the second-most powerful leader in the BJP. Credit both UP and Yogi for this - his big political flex is matched with the big juicy prospect of 80 Lok Sabha seats, which decide who governs the country.
Yogi Adityanath, fully swathed in saffron, is the Hindutva hero come true and now, the assertive heir to Narendra Modi as the "Hindu Hridaya Samrat" (emperor of Hindu hearts).
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath
If you want to know the real story of why the BJP keeps beating the Congress wherever they are in a direct confrontation (in this case, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur), credit the Gandhi siblings. Rahul Gandhi, former Congress President, and sister and Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi, have ensured that they are a dream Opposition for the BJP. Modi just needs to focus on Rahul Gandhi and half the battle is won. Unfortunately, this brutal reality is lost on the family which continues to lead the Congress. The party still squats on a nearly 20% vote share nationally, which is why its serial flops make a huge difference to how the Opposition performs.
Rahul Gandhi has led his party to two general election defeats and nearly lost all states where the Congress was once in a position of strength (it has a government in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, having lost Punjab today) but Gandhi only seems to fail upwards. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress President on paper, has shielded him from all flak. Rahul Gandhi had quit as party president in 2019 taking responsibility for the general election disaster, but he has refused to go away. Currently, he calls all the shots in the party with sibling Priyanka Gandhi, using mother Sonia Gandhi as a rubber stamp for the decisions they take based on a baffling inner circle of aides who have little experience in active politics.
Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra
Priyanka Gandhi, who the Congress once fondly described as a "Brahmastra" (ultimate weapon) has proven to be a dud, an underwhelming politician given to impetuous promises (will contest against Modi in Varanasi, be the Congress face of UP) who refused to move to Lucknow while running the UP campaign. Perhaps it's lucky for her that she did not take her own impetuous comments seriously because today she is left with a 2.5 percent vote share in UP, so imagine if she had been the Chief Ministerial face.
The Gandhi siblings have also managed to shaft their party in Punjab, sacking Captain Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister just four months before voting. Charanjit Singh Channi was made the new Chief Minister and the party went to town marvelling the "game-changer" move of promoting a Dalit leader to the top job for the first time in Punjab's story. Unfortunately, the man for whom Captain Amarinder Singh was sacrificed - Navjot Singh Sidhu - spent all his time campaigning against the Channi government. Both, Channi and Sidhu forgot they had to win an elections and were busy feuding - and not discreetly either - over which of them would be the next Chief Minister.
Charanjit Channi, Rahul Gandhi and Navjot Sidhu
Neither, thanks very much, Punjab voters decided, turning whole-heartedly to Arvind Kejriwal. Unlike the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party chief had learnt from his earlier mistakes and this time, he made it a point to name a presumptive Chief Minister: Bhagwant Singh Mann. The "Delhi model" of the political start-up worked and Arvind Kejriwal will now approach the general election of 2024 with big and bold momentum. The AAP seems to replace the Congress in states looking for a change from a bi-polar polity. As a party, once the Congress drops to less than 20 percent of the vote share, it does not return to power.
Even Uttarakhand snubbed the Congress and for the first time has voted back the incumbent BJP. With Goa and Manipur also coupled with the BJP, the party is gaining strength with every election.
Hindutva is clearly the dominant ideology of the past eight years and this will have consequences in politics. Expect the common civil code, the CAA and the NRC to see a renewed push.
Bhagwant Mann and Arvind Kejriwal
These wins will ensure the BJP returns triumphant in the Rajya Sabha elections slotted for March 31. Modi will now be noticeably in the driver's seat for the election of the next President of India.
And of course, with the UP as proof-of-concept, the BJP has had a dream blast-off for Modi 2024. Punjab has seen off most political dynasts, mirroring the national mood.
The Congress may privately be aching to send the Gandhis on gardening leave, but even today's developments will not lead to the family either accepting the blame or the party calling their bluff. Same old, same old. Just the way the Congress likes it.
(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
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