I wonder if we can say the show has just begun.
The most-awaited political show - people and political pundits have long waited for this - is finally on track and gaining momentum.
Nitish Kumar's meeting with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi is very significant. Nitish Kumar, since leaving the BJP and forming a government with the RJD in Bihar, has been trying to convey to various leaders that if they don't come together, it will be disastrous for the entire opposition and democracy in the country will be doomed.
It was expected that Nitish Kumar would be the sutradhar (facilitator) for bringing together all the leaders under one umbrella, but for some unknown reason, even he was seen shying away from taking the initiative.
At one time, it was rumoured that Nitish Kumar was toying with the idea of going back to the BJP, again. This theory gained more currency when he did not make any categorical statement after Rahul Gandhi was convicted by a Surat Court and his membership of parliament was declared void. But Nitish Kumar's visit to Delhi has proved that such rumours were floated by his opponents with malice to create confusion in the opposition camp.
Nitish Kumar's visit to Delhi and his meeting with Congress leaders has been termed by Rahul Gandhi as historic. This is for history to judge but as of now it can certainly be said that the ball has started rolling and this should be a matter of concern for the Narendra Modi government.
Nitish Kumar's Delhi visit is extremely significant for three reasons.
One, this is probably the first time Rahul Gandhi took part in the process of forging opposition unity. If Nitish Kumar had only met with Mallikarjun Kharge then it would have been speculated that the meeting couldn't be taken too seriously since the Nehru-Gandhi family, the "real high command" of the Congress, was not involved. It would also have given the opponents of this unity a reason to question whether Kharge had the authority to try and form an alliance. The Involvement of Rahul Gandhi in the talks, along with other senior leaders of the Congress and also leaders from JDU and RJD not only gives it the seriousness it deserves but also kills any window for rumours.
It has often been said that Rahul Gandhi is very stiff when it comes to meeting with other leaders. He is dubbed a loner. He is not like Sharad Pawar, who is not only respected by leaders of other political parties, but he also believes in a one-on-one relationship with everyone regardless of political differences. Rahul Gandhi is rarely seen interacting with any politician. Even his own senior partymen find it difficult to interact with him. He has been criticised in the past that despite being the top leader of the Congress, he has not taken any initiative to thread together leaders of opposition.
Though it is also a fact that Rahul Gandhi has constantly advocated that opposition unity is important to fight the Modi-led BJP. He has also articulated in the past that just an anti-Modi front will not work; to be taken seriously by voters, it is incumbent on the opposition to create a meaningful program, to put before the people not only an alternate vision for the country vis-à-vis the BJP's Hindutva and politics of hate but also an alternative model of governance.
Though details are not available about what transpired in the meeting, Rahul Gandhi's presence certainly dignifies the unity process and also signals that there is no divide in the party on the issue.
Two, Nitish Kumar meeting with Lalu Yadav is also important for the fact that it conveys that the alliance in Bihar is on a firm footing. It nips in the bud any rumour which has been floated by the enemies of opposition unity about the durability of the Mahagathbandan in Bihar. In the fight against Modi, Bihar can be counted as a swing state. In 2019, when Nitish Kumar and Modi were together, the NDA won 39 seats out of 40. The BJP itself won 17. Now, after the Nitish-Modi split, can the BJP repeat its last performance? That is the big question. In Bihar, unlike in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, the BJP does not have a strong support base. It has always been dependent on an alliance partner to either form a government or win the majority of seats in parliament elections. It is seen that if out of the three parties - JDU, RJD and BJP - two are aligned then that grouping has an easy run in elections. The JDU and RJD are together this time, along with the Congress and other left parties. This alliance is very formidable and has the potential to chomp into the BJP's seats in 2024. If that happens then the BJP will be in trouble.
Three, Nitish Kumar meeting with Arvind Kejriwal can be a turning point. Till now, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been toying with the idea of a Third Front. Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and KCR (K Chandrasekhar Rao), have been meeting with each other and have been vocal about creating a new front equidistant from the BJP and Congress. Mamata Banerjee has even stated that Rahul Gandhi is "TRP" for Modi. Kejriwal and the Congress are at loggerheads with each other.
In Punjab, if AAP has defeated the Congress, in Delhi it has decimated the party. One should remember that when Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi were interrogated by the Enforcement Directorate, AAP attacked the Congress. And when Manish Sisodia was arrested the Congress, unlike other opposition parties, was not vociferous in criticising the Modi government. In fact, local Delhi leaders demanded more stringent action against Manish Sisodia and others until the national leadership intervened the party's tone changed. AAP formed governments with the support of the Congress in 2013 but since then, the two have behaved like mortal enemies.
Due to the Adani issue both parties have gravitated towards each other. In parliament and outside, AAP was seen enthusiastically coordinating with the Congress. AAP leader Sanjay Singh was a regular participant in meetings called by Mallikarjun Kharge.
AAP has also realised that it cannot fight Modi alone, that any attempt to form a Third Front will ultimately help Modi. That without the Congress, opposition unity at the national level has no meaning, and only a united opposition has any chance at all of defeating Modi.
Nitish Kumar can act as the bridge between the two. Nitish Kumar has had good relations with Kejriwal. There is mutual respect. Nitish Kumar meeting Kejriwal soon after meeting Kharge and Rahul Gandhi indicates that the ice had been broken. Whether it will cement a relationship remains to be seen.
The 2024 national election is almost a year away. Coalition politics, by nature, is a tricky affair. To resolve ideological and political differences is not an easy task. But there seems to be a unanimity on the view that the way the Modi government has been attacking the opposition and using central agencies, no party will survive in the long run; either their top leaders will end up in jail or like the Shiv Sena, the party will be hijacked. It's a do or die situation. The misuse of central agencies is the glue that can stick the parties together. But to imagine that this will happen in one visit to Delhi is demanding too much. It will require many more such visits, not only to Delhi but also to other state capitals, and not only by Nitish Kumar but also by others. The show has just begun.
(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.