Opinion | The Karnataka Conundrum: The Road Ahead For A Chastened Siddaramaiah

A huge court setback for Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah means he can be prosecuted in a land scam that threatens to upend his government and his long political career.

The Karnataka High Court on Tuesday rejected Siddaramaiah's petition challenging the Governor's August 16 order sanctioning action against him in a case of "unlawful" allotment of 14 housing plots to his wife Parvathi in Mysuru.

Siddaramaiah was expecting a favourable verdict in the MUDA (Mysore Urban Development Authority) land scam case, dubbed by many as the Chief Minister's "MUDA muddle".

As Siddaramaiah faces resignation calls, the ruling Congress - and its Delhi leadership - is struggling with damage control.

The Chief Minister has batted away the demands for his resignation, asserting that he will fight the case and win. He has also accused the BJP and Janata Dal (Secular) of a conspiracy to weaken the Congress government.

Now that his position is wobbly, perhaps his biggest threat is in-house - DK Shivakumar, his deputy and rival, who has never masked his ambition to hold the top post.

Legal Options

In its order, the single judge bench of Justice M Nagaprasanna said that it was difficult to accept that Siddaramaiah was not 'behind the curtain' during the MUDA land deal, in which his family allegedly benefitted approximately Rs 56 crore.

"The facts narrated in the petition would undoubtedly require an investigation...(given) that the beneficiary of all these acts is not anybody outside, but the petitioner's wife," remarked Justice Nagaprasanna, endorsing Governor Gehlot's sanction for prosecution under Section 17A of Prevention of Corruption Act and Section 218 of the new Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023.

The Governor's sanction came in response to requests from activists TJ Abraham, Pradeep Kumar SP and Snehamayi Krishna. The court order allows the three RTI activists to approach an anti-corruption agency such as the Karnataka Lokayukta police to seek a probe.

A Karnataka Special Court has now ordered a Lokayukta probe into the allegations.

Siddaramaiah can approach a larger bench of the High Court or the Supreme Court against Judge Nagaprasanna's decision. His legal team is weighing the options.

Congress's Dilemma

For the Congress leadership, this crisis is a test of its political acuity. If it asks Siddaramaiah to go, it invites more opposition attacks. If it doesn't, it loses moral high ground and also sets itself up for political instability, with Siddaramaiah as potential troublemaker.

It is a delicate high wire act for the Congress, also because any forced leadership change may alienate the AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for Minorities, OBC, and Dalits) voters who form Siddaramaiah's support base.

Siddaramaiah has the support of party MLAs, more than Shivakumar. But if the Congress considers a third option, Shivakumar will cause trouble. For now, Shivakumar is publicly supporting Siddaramaiah for the sake of 'unity'. The party "stands with Siddaramaiah", he said on Tuesday, calling the cases a "conspiracy of the BJP" against rival parties across the country.

People close to the Chief Minister say Siddaramaiah is a fighter and that he has the backing of the high command. And that he will never capitulate or submit to "intimidation or conspiracy".

The controversy has weakened the Congress in Karnataka, a state it won last year, with the focus shifting from governance to corruption allegations. With Siddaramaiah entangled in legal battles, the government's social welfare schemes are bound to be neglected and mismanaged.

"As of now, Siddaramaiah will continue as chief minister. The question of the next chief minister may not arise. However, it is possible that the party might face some disturbances within," says Harish Ramaswamy, political analyst.

"As for the Congress party, the question is how it controls its cadres and MLAs at this time," he added.

Opposition Upbeat

The opposition BJP, still smarting from its defeat in the 2023 state election, is aggressively demanding Siddaramaiah's removal and an impartial investigation conducted by the CBI. The party's Karnataka ally JD(S) is also elated. Taking to social media, the JD(S) referred to Siddaramaiah as "Whitener Ramaiah" with "black spots" of corruption.

With a chastened Siddaramaiah facing heat from a rejuvenated opposition, the High Court verdict could have far-reaching consequences in Karnataka.

Shortly after the court's decision on Tuesday, BJP state president BY Vijayendra and opposition leader R Ashok held a press conference in Bengaluru, where they called for Siddaramaiah to step down.

"The High Court's decision confirms the allegations of corruption and I urge the chief minister to respect the legal process. The High Court has upheld the Governor's order for prosecution. It is now time for Siddaramaiah to resign from his post as chief minister," said BJP state chief BY Vijayendra, the son of former chief minister BS Yediyurappa.

The Congress may feel the impact in the short run, but it has to strategise for the long game.

The opposition will likely have an upper hand in the upcoming by-elections in three seats - Channapatna, from where JD(S)' HD Kumaraswamy was sitting MLA; Shiggaon vacated by Basavaraj Bommai of BJP, and Sandur vacated by E Tukaram of Congress. All three were elected to parliament in June.

"The dent in the Congress party will soon be evident, depending on how far the opposition capitalising on the court decision. Let's see who has the upper hand in this political battle," says Ramaswamy.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author