Opinion | The Logistics Of Trump's Deportation Dream Are Not So Pretty

Donald Trump hit the ground running as President-elect, dedicating his first week to assembling his team. By the start of his second week, he announced on Truth Social his intention to declare a national emergency on border security. His plan includes suggestions that he might deploy the National Guard to execute a mass deportation of undocumented migrants—a bold move that underscores the priorities of his administration. Yet, specifics remain unclear on how this colossal undertaking will actually be managed.

‘Trumpworld', as many are calling it, promises to be a land purged of its estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants. "America First" policies will be this world's mantra. It will be a world where work begins to Make America Great Again (MAGA) and, of course, a world where a revival of hardline conservative values has long been awaited. The MAGA campaign, as envisioned by Trumpworld and its far-right champions, pledges to drive all undocumented immigrants out. It must concern Indians too, given that around 7,25,000 of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US are from India, according to the Pew Research Centre. It makes them the third-largest group after Mexico and El Salvador. 

Indians In US: A Tale Of Extremes

Indian immigrants in the US are often celebrated for powering the success of Silicon Valley, but the quiet contributions of the thousands of undocumented Indians rarely get a mention—largely because they are living in the country illegally. They make up nearly 6% of the country's total undocumented migrants.  Together, their population is 2.71 million-strong. The total number of both legal and illegal Indian immigrants is second only to Mexico (4.5 million). Now that Trump is back in the White House, uncertainty looms for many of these Indian immigrants, most of whom are young and settled in their jobs. 

Can Bluster Turn Into Policy?

Tom Homan will be in charge of America's borders following Trump's inauguration in January. A former police officer and ex-director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), a federal agency responsible for enforcing immigration laws within the US, Homan is known for his hardline rhetoric. At the Republican National Convention this year, he didn't mince words as he warned undocumented immigrants: “You better start packing now.” 

Besides Homan's appointment as the Border Czar, Trump has also nominated Stephen Miller as Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy. Both positions reinforce his campaign promise of being extremely tough on immigration and deporting all illegal immigrants. Homan will oversee, among other things, US borders and deportations, while Miller, known for his role in shaping Trump's immigration stance during his first term, will focus on implementing the administration's mass deportation promises. It has been announced that South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will serve as Secretary of Homeland Security, coordinating with Homan and Miller on border security initiatives.

However, the hurdles in actually executing Trump's grand plan are staggering. The logistics of ramping up the system are as daunting as the rhetoric is bold.

Tracing Origins

In order to deport a person with no documents or passport, border agencies have to first establish beyond doubt which country a potential deportee comes from. Let me draw a parallel here. India faces a similar problem with regard to many Nigerian immigrants. Once, an annoyed Javed Ahmed, former Mumbai cop and Maharashtra police chief, told me how it was nearly impossible to deport overstayed Nigerians back to their country. Why? Because once in India, they would destroy their passports and all other national IDs so that the authorities would not be able to establish their Nigerian antecedents. Unless their origins are established, the Nigerian government is within its rights to refuse to accept them.

So, if the US government wants to send an undocumented Indian back to India, it won't be easy. The US does have repatriation agreements with Mexico and some Central American countries, but these agreements primarily focus on recent border crossers, not long-term undocumented immigrants. For those residing in the US for 10 years or more, removal procedures become complex. Documentation, verifying citizenship and obtaining travel documents can be difficult. Also, removing long-term residents may separate families, and returnees may face challenges in reintegrating into their countries of origin. These difficulties have been acknowledged by the US government itself.

Manpower Shortage

Another challenge is the lack of manpower. Immigration enforcement agencies are stretched thin, which partly explains why even during Trump's first term, the average annual deportation rate was 3,50,000—a figure that pales in comparison to Obama years, which saw 4,32,000 deportations in a single year. Ironically, it was Obama who had appointed Tom Homan to oversee these deportations.

Trump's supporters have floated the idea of enlisting the National Guard, one of the oldest elements of the US armed forces, to solve the manpower crunch, but experts like Jean Lantz Reisz from the Gould School of Law warn this would likely invite legal challenges. The Supreme Court has made it clear that the President cannot unilaterally deploy the military for immigration enforcement. Attempts to use the Insurrection Act of 1807, a federal law authorising the President to deploy the army to quell domestic insurrections when state authorities request assistance or national security is threatened, would likely hit the same legal wall.

Legal Logjam

The sheer lack of judicial and detention capacity, as highlighted by immigration experts, is also a challenge. With a staggering backlog of 3.7 million pending immigration cases (Syracuse University's data), the system is already buckling under weight. Meanwhile, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) currently detains 37,000 people in total—far from enough to handle Trump's mass deportation plans. Expanding this capacity won't come cheap and taxpayers would almost certainly be handed the bill. 

Budgetary Constraints

It is claimed that removing all 11 million unauthorised immigrants will cost close to $300 billion. Trump has, however, already said the cost is a non-issue. But cost is not the only consideration. According to researchers, nearly one million of the 11 million undocumented immigrants run their own businesses and pay taxes to the tune of $100 billion. In states such as California and Texas, in sectors like agriculture, infrastructure and hospitality, the engagement of undocumented workers is crucial. Reisz offers a blunt reality check: “You could put 11 million people in removal proceedings, but it would take years to actually deport them from the US.” Without significant legal changes—and congressional action to back them up—Reisz sees mass deportations as little more than a pipe dream.

The History Of Prejudice

The US, often called a “nation of immigrants”, was built on several waves of immigration in the early centuries, mostly from Europe. Just to give perspective, while the European settlers were busy driving the indigenous people out of their land and trying to build homes for themselves in the New World in the 17th century, the Mughal and Ottoman empires were at their peak—exuding prosperity, exquisite art and breathtaking architecture. After several centuries of mostly-White European migration, the US developed into a New World, finally evolving into a world power in the 20th century. 

The anti-immigration sentiments began growing in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as the composition of the immigrant population changed. Earlier immigrants, primarily from Northern and Western Europe, were openly welcomed, but the influx of Africans, Chinese and others fuelled xenophobia and nativism. Racial prejudices were actually codified into laws by the US. The Immigration Act of 1917, for instance, created a "barred zone," excluding immigrants from most of Asia. In 1924, the Johnson-Reed Act further entrenched discrimination by establishing quotas based on origin, favouring Northern and Western Europeans while excluding Asians entirely. White Europeans were typically seen as more desirable and got citizenship easily. But Black, Asian and Latino immigrants faced outright exclusion, segregation and legal barriers. For instance, the Naturalisation Act of 1790 limited citizenship to “free white persons”—a restriction that wasn't lifted, hold your breath, until the mid-20th century. Anti-immigrant sentiments weren't just about numbers—it reflected deep-rooted anxieties over race, culture, and the fear of being overwhelmed. 

Achievable Goals

Even with the best intentions and a commitment to walking the talk, Trump's new immigration team will not find it easy to surpass Obama's peak of 4,32,000 deportations per year. Even if they manage an ambitious half a million annually—assuming no legal or logistical roadblocks—it would still take 22 years to clear the current backlog of undocumented immigrants. Experts, however, believe Trump is more likely to focus on deporting recent arrivals, whose records are easier to trace.

However, with Trump legally unable to seek re-election in 2028, the big question looms: who will be held accountable if this bold promise falls short?

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author