It's a remarriage of convenience in Tamil Nadu.
A year to the Tamil Nadu election, the BJP and AIADMK have revived their ties in the state. On April 11, 2025, Union Home Minister Amit Shah declared that a coalition government would be formed after the elections. He also said the 2026 election would be fought under the leadership of AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, popularly known as EPS. The NDA is expected to include the PMK and TMC (Moopanar).
Amit Shah accused the state's ruling DMK of highlighting contentious issues like sanatan dharma, delimitation, NEET, and the three-language education policy to distract the public from the core issue of DMK misrule.
The BJP and AIADMK were allies in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 state elections but separated in September 2023. There was bitter animosity between the two parties during the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when K Annamalai was the state BJP chief.
So, what prompted the change of heart? More importantly, now that the BJP-AIADMK have come together, what will it mean for the assembly polls, given that the two parties have almost identical political bases.
The calculation
After their 2024 Lok Sabha poll debacle in Tamil Nadu, the BJP and AIADMK perhaps realised that reunion was the best option.
In the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls, their alliance netted 40% of the vote share while the DMK-Congress-Left alliance got more than 45% of the votes.
After breaking away from the NDA in 2023, the AIADMK fought the 2024 Lok Sabha election on its own, garnering 20.46% of the votes while the BJP-led parties received 18%. The rift left space for the DMK-led alliance to increase its vote share to 47% in 2024. The BJP and AIADMK have realised that reuniting would give the voters a clear choice and make it a close contest.
K Annamalai, a former police officer with a clean image, would have turned out to be a potent force for the BJP in the long run. But that would have taken years - definitely not by next year.
Though the BJP couldn't win a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election under Annamalai's leadership, he helped the party increase its vote share by over 7%. The BJP's vote share increased from 3.7% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to 11.24% in 2024. He created visibility for the national party in the mind space of voters in the state by raising issues relevant at the district level.
But Annamalai had a feud with AIADMK leaders, especially EPS. Annamalai's criticism of the AIADMK's revered leader and former chief minister J Jayalalithaa, and also CN Annadurai, the first chief minister of Tamil Nadu, did not exactly endear him to the AIADMK brass. However, there is more to it than that. Both Annamalai and EPS belong to the same caste and region in the state.
It was their battle for the support of the Gounder community of the western Tamil Nadu region that forced the BJP to sacrifice Annamalai, a novice in front of a veteran like EPS.
Annamalai has been replaced by senior leader and MLA Nainar Nagendran as state BJP chief. Nagendran joined the BJP in 2017 after quitting the AIADMK following Jayalalithaa's death.
Since Nagendran is a Thevar leader from Tirunelveli in the southern belt, he provides balance. He also has the backing of the minority communities in his region.
Sources say Nagendran is aware of the BJP's social engineering plan for Tamil Nadu, of combining Hindu Dalits with the most backward castes and classes.
After Jayalalithaa's death in 2016, the infighting within - mainly between EPS and then party chief OPS (O Paneerselvam) and later between EPS-OPS and Jayalalithaa's long-term aide VK Sasikala - weakened the AIADMK in the state. In fact, in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, BJP had an understanding with Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran and OPS.
This time round, those leadership tangles have been pre-empted with Amit Shah announcing that the NDA will fight under EPS. This may help reignite the dormant AIADMK voter base.
The BJP has made it clear it will not intervene in the AIADMK's internal affairs and that any decision on expelled leaders (read Dhinakaran and OPS) will be taken jointly.
They have agreed on a common minimum programme. Sticking points like the policy on delimitation and the three-language formula will put AIADMK's stand to the test.
Other factors
There is also a view that the increasing stature of DMK Chief Minister MK Stalin, both in the state and in national politics, has flustered the BJP. Of late, the DMK has been rallying non-BJP ruled states on issues ranging from NEET and delimitation to the three-language policy.
The DMK has its own vote base, which both the BJP and the AIADMK will aim to target. The two parties also hope to gain from anti-incumbency sentiment. There is also a calculation that once the PMK joins the coalition, the NDA will become a stronger force in the state's northern region too.
For now, the BJP's plans for a bigger foothold in Tamil Nadu politics are on hold, so out goes Annamalai.
Another factor that may have contributed to the early reunion is newcomer TVK (Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam) of actor Vijay. The TVK didn't fight the Lok Sabha election, but it seems likely that Vijay's party will contest the state polls. Since he launched his party, Vijay has been attacking the DMK and the BJP. But he has remained silent on the AIADMK.
The BJP would prefer to seal its partnership with the AIADMK well in advance, so that their cadres get time to form a cohesive campaign and capitalise on anti-incumbency factors. Besides, any possibility of an AIADMK-TVK tie-up is not off the table, at least until the 2026 assembly polls.
The coalition announcement by Mr Shah, who also happens to be the BJP's chief election strategist, marks a distinct shift in alliance dynamics. Earlier, regional giants held the bargaining power. In this case, it is the national party - BJP- which is calling the shots, though at the risk of its own identity in the state.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
