(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)
Maharashtra is rapidly becoming a sort of Animal Planet and could rival the wildlife TV channel if the affairs and language of the state were to go live. The Shiv Sena leadership has described the NCP as "rats". These NCP "rats" ruined the economy of the state like the gangs of mice destroy food-grain godowns, they have alleged. The NCP retorted that the so-called "tiger" that the Shiv Sena pretended it was, is actually a tired old "cat".
The BJP described the Congress as a "lame duck" under the non-leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Sharad Pawar is like a "cunning fox" and should not be trusted for full term support to the BJP, noted some Sangh Parivar leaders who are not happy with the "unwarranted alliance" with the NCP. And Raj Thackeray is a "cub" without teeth trying to find shelter in the BJP stable, was Ajit Pawar's sarcastic observation. But later the media reported that Ajit himself had opened back channel talks with Raj. Ajit did not clarify his position on those reports.
The Republicans (RPI) who at one point of time had the "elephant" as their electoral and cultural symbol, had aligned with the Shiv Sena's "tiger". The late Balasaheb Thackeray had once said that Shivaji and Bhim (Dr Bhimrao Babasaheb Ambedkar) coming together combined the strengths of the "tiger and elephant".
But, Animal Planet would seem a tame affair compared to what happened in and outside the Maharashtra assembly on Wednesday. The very first day of the new assembly was so unruly that even those who detest politics in general and politicians in particular were shocked. They said that even jungle law is more civil and "constitutional", though the animal world has no formal constitution or procedure.
It could have been a day of victory for the BJP's minority government. The party had 122 members and including allies and independents, the assured support of 135 MLAs. They were short of just 10 votes to get to 145 in the house of 287. The NCP, with 41 MLAs had declared support.
Originally, the NCP had decided to walk out or abstain. But then they had decided to vote for the government (ostensibly to prevent instability in the state). So it was clear that the government would have established a clear majority of a stunning 31 votes. But instead of going for the vote count, the newly and unanimously elected Speaker chose to opt for a voice vote, and within seconds declared that the BJP had won the vote of confidence. This bulldozing of the Assembly was unprecedented.
The opposition, led by the Shiv Sena and the Congress, promptly called the government "Illegitimate". But the Fadnavis government went ahead with the Governor's address to the joint session of the Houses.
This infuriated the opposition. First, they tried to block the entry of the governor to the house. Then they walked out during the speech, protesting the unconstitutionality of the whole sequence. When the governor was returning, he was again gheraoed and slogans were raised. That led to heckling and finally five Congress MLAs were suspended for two years.
Looking back, one can say that the election for the Maharashtra assembly itself had begun the political jungle raj. The animal kingdom in the state had gone berserk. Nobody knew which beast was against which beast. There was no Tarzan who could communicate with them all. But there were enough impostors who thought that they could bring them together in unlikely alliances.
Sharad Pawar thought of building a bizarre front of the Shiv Sena, NCP, PWP (Peasants and Workers Party) and RPI (Republican Party of India), with outside support of the Congress. The BJP could not unite its own stable in the state. But wanted to form government without its ally of 25 years, the Shiv Sena. The so called Maratha strongman was spreading his tentacles all around. He even told a TV channel that there was a distinct possibility of a non-BJP government in the state and that would be the beginning of halting the "fascist march forward " of Narendra Modi!
Narendra Modi's guidelines were to get the BJP elected with its own majority -- "shat-pratishat," which meant 145 seats out of 288. But that seemed an outlandish expectation. So the party demanded a large number of seats to contest in negotiations with the Shiv Sena. The Sena, which always was a big brother in the state, refused to hand over that many seats to the BJP. Modi and Shah had anticipated that and therefore formed an alliance with four small parties with specific caste and community base. And had also opened back channel talks with Sharad Pawar.
Uddhav Thackeray, not knowing or certainly not realizing the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah game, played into their trap. The alliance was broken and the BJP placed the blame at the doors of Matoshsri - Uddhav's residence. Uddhav too had aimed at 150 seats to contest (and win the maximum number) so as to stake claim to being chief minister. Amit Shah let him build his dream in the meantime got nearly 50 NCP and Congress candidates to defect to the BJP.
The so-called "Maratha strongman" Sharad Pawar, has always been a darling of the media. This statesman has always played truant with the political class. He is a friend of all and also enemy of all. He can form or break an alliance with anybody. He had rebelled in the Congress, raising the issue of Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin and formed his own party - the Nationalist Congress Party. Modi had described it as the Naturally Corrupt Congress Party.
Pawar, who snapped his partnership with the Congress just two weeks before the election, had sensed the decimation of his party and also of the Congress. That is when the negotiations of the NCP with the Modi-Shah duo had begun. Pawar's assessment and Modi's game plan worked, but only by half.
Despite Modi's whirlwind campaign, his party could not get a majority. The Shiv Sena managed to win 63 seats (not a bad performance) but the BJP won 123. The politics of fresh alliances began in earnest. Neither ideology nor political morality mattered. It became a free for all.
Maharashtra has always prided itself as "superior in political culture" to, say, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. But now that the myth of Maharashtra's moral high ground has been exploded, a new Jungle Book is being written.
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