Opinion: The Opposition Boycott And Its Implications For 2024

With the inauguration of the new parliament, a new era has begun in Indian politics. One can argue that the politics of consensus, which was the hallmark of India's parliamentary democracy, has now been consigned to the pages of history. There could be lengthy debates among future historians over some aspects of the solemn occasion. They will consider whether the opposition's boycott was justified or a missed opportunity. The invitation to Hindu religious gurus to perform rituals with Vedic mantras will also be assessed, as will the installation of the Sengol.

There is no gainsaying that it was a historic moment and that all ideological groups will have reasons to see the event through their own lens, feeling a range of emotions.

The boycott of the event by 20 political parties including the Congress was no ordinary feat. It underlines that India is now a polarised society, and the opposition has shown remarkable agility in holding the government accountable and posing tough questions. Since the government is usually disinclined to answer questions or even acknowledge the opposition's right to question, it either ignores questions or tries to discredit the opposition or punishes those who target the government. Rahul Gandhi's is a classic case. He was not only stripped of his membership of parliament but was also asked to vacate his bungalow. This case defines the relationship between two pillars of parliament. The opposition has realised the need for unorthodox strategies in their fight against the government. The boycott of the inauguration is one such instrument. It sends the message that the opposition will not be taken for a ride and is willing to reply in the same coin; the opposition will not shy away from highlighting what they call an "authoritarian government" with no respect for parliamentary institutions.

The opposition has realised that unless all parties opposed to the BJP are on the same page, it will be difficult to take on the government. United they can fight and divided they fall. Government agencies like ED, CBI, Income Tax, and police have carried out a relentless campaign against the parties, making it virtually impossible to deal with them individually.

Arvind Kejriwal, who until recently had been ploughing a lonely furrow, has finally realised that he needs support in his fight against the Modi government. Three of his party colleagues - Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain and Vijay Nayyar - are in jail and there is no possibility of any of them making bail soon. The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal is no longer a remote possibility. No wonder then, that after the Centre brought in an ordinance to reverse a Supreme Court order backing the Delhi government's control over the state administration and a limited role for the Lieutenant Governor, Kejriwal started touring different state capitals for support to stall the ordinance in Rajya Sabha. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief, who previously showed no interest in aligning with the Congress, is now seeking an appointment to meet Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi.

The national elections are less than a year away and the opposition does not want to repeat the mistakes of 2019. The opposition then was a divided house. The Congress under Rahul Gandhi's leadership arrogantly believed that it could stop Modi from getting a majority in Lok Sabha. The party was overconfident after defeating the BJP in three states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The Congress felt Modi's popularity was on the wane. Before these states, the Congress had even succeeded in preventing the BJP from scoring a majority in the Karnataka election. In the Gujarat election in 2017, the BJP won but the Congress put up a tough fight. But the national election results proved that the Congress was either misled by its strategists or it misread Modi's popularity. The BJP under Modi swept not only in the three states where it had lost to the Congress in December 2018 but also won 26 seats out of 28 in Karnataka. Modi improved his tally to 303.

The BJP today is occupying the same hegemonic position that the Congress enjoyed in its heydays. A divided opposition was no match for the Congress then. In the past, whenever the opposition was united, it defeated the Congress. The same Congress is now in the opposition, and it has learned from history that a hegemonic power can only be replaced by an alliance of like-minded parties. In this context, the meeting of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar with Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi is significant. Kharge, along with the Nehru-Gandhi family, has understood that if Modi is back in 2024, then it will be difficult for the party to survive and many of its top leaders will end up in jail. Rahul Gandhi's case is a clue. If he is not cleared in court, he might have to spend time in jail and he can't contest elections.

Mamata Banerjee and KCR (K Chandrasekhar Rao) have been staunch opponents of the Congress. They, along with Kejriwal and Akhilesh Yadav, tried to form a Third Front. But two incidents have forced them to change tack. Rahul Gandhi's disqualification from parliament and the arrest of AAP's Manish Sisodia, the Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi, were warning signs that individual campaigns or a fractured opposition will not be enough to halt the Modi juggernaut.

The Centre bringing in the Delhi ordinance to neutralise a Supreme Court order added to their apprehensions. They all realise it will be suicidal for them if they don't unite. Mamata Banerjee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee and KCR's daughter K Kavitha are being regularly grilled by central investigative agencies and can be arrested at any time. Such outcomes can only be avoided if Modi is defeated in 2024. That is possible only if the entire opposition behaves like one unit, speaks in one voice and chases one goal. The opposition's boycott call is the first reflection of that thought process.

There are silver linings. Nitish Kumar has emerged as the fulcrum of opposition unity. He is acting as a bridge between different political parties who, until very recently, were not comfortable in each other's company. Sharad Pawar, despite the ups and downs in his party and in Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, is holding the fort in Maharashtra. Mamata, KCR and Kejriwal have softened their stands. The Karnataka victory has bolstered the confidence of the Congress leadership and has given heft to the idea that with proper homework and a focused campaign, the BJP can be defeated. Rahul Gandhi is inventing an alternate ideological praxis by marrying strident attacks on BJP's Hindutva with the demand for a caste-based census. The effectiveness of the social justice agenda in Mandal politics against the Sanatan Hindutva narrative has to be seen.

The lines are now drawn after the parliament boycott and a definite picture is emerging on the election horizon. In 2024, the battle no longer looks one-sided. If the opposition can pull through a one-on-one contest in more than 400 seats, then it won't be easy sailing for the BJP.

(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.