The 2025 German federal election has brought a shift in Europe's political landscape. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) emerged as the strongest party with 28.5% of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 20.8%, nearly doubling its vote share. This result underscores deepening regional, generational, and ideological divisions—west Germany largely stayed with the CDU, while the east overwhelmingly backed AfD. As the political establishment scrambles to form a governing coalition, questions arise over Germany's future direction, especially in security, economic policy, and its place in the European Union.
Beyond domestic concerns, the election comes at a critical geopolitical moment, with Germany's foreign policy, relations with the U.S., and its role in the Ukraine war under scrutiny. The war has strained Germany's economy and security posture, while debates over NATO's future and European defense autonomy signal unease in Berlin's policy circles. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, will shape Germany's stance on Ukraine aid, European security, and transatlantic ties. These issues will dominate coalition negotiations and Germany's policy realignment in the coming months.
A Grand Coalition Is Likely
The election results reflect a growing generational realignment in German politics. CDU retained strong support among older voters, especially those above 60, where it secured over 40% of the vote. However, among the youth, CDU lost ground to AfD, which gained remarkable traction among voters aged 18-34. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a significant decline, as younger left-wing voters shifted to Die Linke and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The Free Democratic Party (FDP) collapsed below the electoral threshold, indicating the waning appeal of economic centrism among young voters.
With mainstream parties ruling out cooperation with AfD, a CDU-SPD ‘grand coalition' is the most viable option. Friedrich Merz (69) has set Easter as the deadline to finalise a coalition agreement, emphasising economic stability, European integration, and security concerns. The new Bundestag begins its term on March 25. Merz aims to collaborate with the SPD and Greens on debt brakes, signaling his eagerness for a fresh start. Securing an agreement would be a major win for him. Despite its poor showing, SPD is likely to accept a junior role in government, though the Scholz faction may take a backseat due to electoral pragmatism.
This coalition faces two, rather three, major challenges: economic recovery, defense and Ukraine. Germany's economic slowdown, exacerbated by inflation, energy dependency, and global supply chain disruptions, demands urgent action. With CDU's pro-business stance, the new government is likely to push for corporate tax reforms, deregulation, and incentives for skilled labour migration—an essential step as Germany faces severe labor shortages.
Merz seeks to prioritise achieving greater independence in foreign policy and defense matters, seeking a step-by-step reduction of reliance on the US while advancing European security autonomy. This shift will be closely watched by NATO allies and EU partners, as it reflects Germany's attempt to balance transatlantic commitments with a more self-reliant European defense strategy. Friedrich Merz has also pledged continued support for Ukraine, as against President Trump, reinforcing Germany's role in European security.
US-Russia Manoeuvring
These debates occur against the backdrop of recent geopolitical manoeuvers—most notably the Riyadh meeting between the Trump administration and Putin's representatives, which has alarmed European allies over a potential US-Russia understanding that bypasses Ukraine. In response, European leaders convened in Paris to discuss forming a European peacekeeping force, seeking greater autonomy in regional security matters.
With another European summit planned for early March, further steps toward a coordinated EU security strategy on Ukraine will be debated. Meanwhile, at the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance signalled a more restrained American role in European security, reinforcing the need for Germany and the EU to reassess their defense commitments amid shifting transatlantic priorities.
A Warning to the Establishment
AfD's historic gains in eastern Germany highlight widespread frustration with economic stagnation, migration policies, and political elites. The party's success among undecided voters indicates that many Germans feel disconnected from mainstream politics. AfD's new role as the largest opposition party means it will push hardline anti-immigration measures and challenge EU directives.
For CDU and SPD, AfD's rise presents a political dilemma. Ignoring the economic anxiety, cultural tensions, and security fears fuelling its rise will only push more voters toward them. But directly engaging with AfD's rhetoric risks legitimising its positions and shifting German politics further to the right. The coalition government must tackle public concerns head-on without normalising populism.
Impact On India
The German election results come at a critical juncture for India-Germany and India-Europe relations. With top EU officials visiting New Delhi on February 27-28, discussions will focus on skilled labour migration, trade agreements, and strategic cooperation. Germany, facing a workforce shortage, is expected to push for relaxed migration policies, making India a key partner in supplying skilled labour, particularly in IT, engineering, and healthcare.
From a strategic standpoint, India will closely monitor Germany's evolving stance on China, defence, and transatlantic relations. While Merz has reaffirmed support for Ukraine, his push for European defense autonomy signals a potential shift in Berlin's foreign policy priorities.
Notably, Merz has expressed a favourable outlook toward strengthening relations with India. In 2024, meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar in Berlin, Merz and CDU's foreign policy team reaffirmed their commitment to deeper India-Germany and India-EU relations. This engagement suggests increased collaboration in technology, defense, and economic development, further solidifying Germany's role as India's key European partner.
A New Era For Germany
The 2025 German federal election has reshaped the country's political landscape, solidifying CDU's dominance while catapulting AfD to unprecedented levels of support. Meghan O'Sullivan, director of Harvard's Belfer Center and former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Bush, described the election as “a step in the direction to the right”, underscoring the broader transformation in German politics.
AfD's rise is a wake-up call for mainstream parties—German voters are shifting, and establishment politics must evolve. As Germany navigates both domestic unrest and shifting transatlantic ties, its decisions will ripple across trade, migration, and security. The path ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear—German politics and its role in Europe are undergoing a seismic shift.
(Abhishek Chaudhari is currently on an academic break to pursue a mid-career degree at Harvard Kennedy School. Aniket Bhavthankar recipient of Konrad Adenauer Stitung's doctoral fellowship.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
