Opinion | Tribal Votes Helped Hemant Soren Win Jharkhand

Of the 56 seats won by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc, 27 were from the assembly constituencies reserved for Schedule Tribe (ST) candidates. Once again, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has stumbled at the hustings in this belt. Altogether, there are 81 assembly constituencies in the state, of which 28 are reserved for ST candidates, which roughly works out to about 35% of the total seats here. As per the 2011 census, STs account for 26.2% of the state's population. The state has the highest number of Scheduled Tribe voters - 28% of the electorate.

In the 2024 assembly polls, according to the Election Commission website, the BJP managed to win only one of the reserved seats, and that too thanks to former chief minister and JMM turncoat, Champai Soren. Champai Soren was appointed as Hemant Soren's successor after Hemant Soren, who had become chief minister at the end of 2019, was taken into custody by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a land acquisition case. However, five months later, when Hemant Soren reclaimed the chief minister's chair, a disgruntled Champai Soren parted ways with him.

Interestingly, this time he won the Seraikella (ST) seat with a margin of 20,447 votes. In 2019, he had won the same seat with a margin of 15,667 votes, and in 2014, by just 1,115 votes. Thus, his supporters remained loyal, and his victory was stronger in 2024.

Meanwhile, Hemant Soren's margin of victory at Barhait (ST) also increased to 39,791, from 25,740 votes in 2019. In the previous assembly elections, he led the BJP challenger by 24,087 votes.

In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won two of the 28 seats reserved for ST candidates, while the JMM secured 19. The Congress won six. With a total of 30 seats, the JMM formed a coalition government with the Congress (16 seats) and the RJD (1 seat). Hemant Soren became chief minister for the second time, after a brief tenure ending in 2014.

Political instability has plagued Jharkhand, and except for BJP's Raghubar Das, no chief minister has completed a full term since the state was carved out of Bihar in 2000. Jharkhand is also the state where independent legislator Madhu Koda became chief minister in September 2006, a position he held for almost a year with support from several parties, who backed him as a 'safe candidate.'

Amidst this turbulence, support for the BJP continued to decline in the tribal areas. From nine seats in 2005, it rose to 11 in 2014, but then plummeted to just two in 2019. Even in the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, the BJP lost all five seats reserved for ST candidates. Notably, these parliamentary polls took place about four months after Hemant Soren's arrest. Recognising the importance of tribal votes, Babulal Marandi-a Santhal, like Hemant Soren-was appointed the state party president in July 2023.

It didn't help either. It is said that the RSS-affiliated Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram has not been as active in the tribal areas of Jharkhand as it once was. Some attribute this decline to a lack of coordination and cooperation with certain BJP leaders.

However, Babulal Marandi, who was appointed the first chief minister of Jharkhand after its bifurcation, won the Dhanwar seat with a margin of 35,438 votes. He is hailed by many in the state for his early contributions to the development of Jharkhand. But as chief minister, he was criticized for failing to keep his coalition partners united. As a result, BJP's Arjun Munda succeeded him in 2003. When Munda was reinstated after the 2005 assembly elections, Babulal Marandi left the party the following year, alleging that he was not being given his due.

Marandi went on to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and contested 25 seats, winning 11 in the 2009 elections. However, over time, his party's electoral fortunes declined, and he eventually returned to the BJP. The results indicate that he has yet to regain the confidence of his followers.

Considering these factors, the BJP attempted to play the "infiltrator" card. Party leaders accused the Hemant Soren-led government of allowing the unchecked inflow of Bangladeshi infiltrators, thereby depriving tribals and backward classes of their rights. However, it seems that this strategy did not work in Jharkhand.

(Jayanta Bhattacharya is a senior journalist writing on polls and politics, conflict, farmer and human interest issues)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author