US President Donald Trump continues his internal and external political warfare. His internal cleaning-up operations and external muscle-flexing have consequences for the rest of the world, including India.
Deporting Illegal migrants is on top of Trump's agenda. The number of Indian illegal migrants is significant. India has already stated that after verification, these undocumented migrants will be taken back. Trump has been most impatient about the expulsion of Latin American illegal migrants. He has strong-armed Colombia to forthwith accept deportation by US military planes under threat of imposing tariffs, a blanket ban on visas, etc. While buckling under Trump's ultimatum, the Colombian president has responded with an emotionally indignant protest.
What Complicates Things For India
In India's case, these dramatics are absent, but the issue was raised by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with India's External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, when the two met on January 2. Trump, too, has weighed on the subject, saying that he had discussed the issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their phone call. He said that India "will do what's right" when it comes to taking back Indian immigrants who came to the US illegally.
That illegal migrants from India in the US are the fourth-largest in number complicates the atmospherics around the issue of legal migration from India under the H-1B programme, of which India is the biggest beneficiary. The programme is now under scrutiny and there may be some tightening in the guise of reforming the scheme. Other than this, the PR aspect of illegal migrants flown back to India in droves will be problematic for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government as the opposition will project it as a foreign policy failure, which it is not, by any means.
Spillover In Europe—And India
Illegal migration has become an increasingly sensitive issue in Europe in view of rising incidents of terrorism, law and order issues, lack of assimilation, and so on. This has led to Right-wing, nationalist parties gaining political strength in European countries, much to the dismay of Left-leaning and centrist liberal forces. The robust way Trump is dealing with the issue is already fuelling demands for stronger action against illegal migrants in Europe. Marine Le Pen of the right-wing French party RN is already calling for emulating Trump by deporting illegal Algerian migrants. Europe, however, lacks the muscle power required for this, the kind Trump can exercise.
Reports that India, too, is likely to introduce an “Immigration and Foreigners Bill” to crack down on illegal immigration into the country, have appeared, though the dimensions of this problem in India and the legal and administrative means at our disposal impede robust solutions.
Trump's determination to roll back the ‘woke' agenda in the US, with all its excesses, especially gender identity, fluidity and surgery issues, as well as DEI (Diversity. Equity and Inclusion) programmes, will have an international impact, including in India, where these agendas have begun to take root as a result of the impact on our society of Western, liberal-Left socio-economic currents. In Europe, gender issues have become deeply embedded in political and social discourse, and therefore, these issues will divide Trump's America and the EU.
Weaponising Dollar And Duties
To the US's weaponising of the dollar, Trump is unabashed in adding the weaponisation of tariffs as well to achieve the country's economic goals. He had threatened to impose 60% tariffs on China's exports to the US but has not done that so far. Following his earlier threats, he has now announced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican exports beginning February 1, and 10% on Chinese exports. He has not yet imposed 10% tariffs on exports of all other countries, as he had threatened to do during his election campaign. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bissent, has recommended across-the-board 2.5% tariffs on all imports into the US, but Trump wants a higher figure. He believes that these tariffs can raise enormous revenues for the US, and to collect and manage them, he is proposing an External Revenue Service. He is unbothered that unilaterally raising US tariffs would violate bilateral FTAs and the provisions of the WTO, or that other countries would retaliate and trade wars could be unleashed, to the detriment of all. Canada has already announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico, too, intends to do so. Trump has threatened higher tariffs on the EU and the UK too. Europe will certainly strike back with tariffs on US exports to the EU.
Trump has also threatened BRICS with 100% tariffs if it develops a common currency of its own or takes any steps to move away from the US dollar. BRICS has no plans to develop a common currency. India has publicly disowned any such move. Russia has reiterated that a common currency is not on the BRICS agenda. However, trade in national currencies between member states is being promoted, and this dilutes the dependence on the dollar for intra-BRICS trading. Trump's threats are unconscionable and will only reinforce resistance to his bullying tactics.
A Hypocritical Stance
Trump has repeatedly charged India with maintaining high tariff walls. The White House read-out of his telephonic conversation with Modi says that the President emphasised the importance of India moving “towards a fair bilateral trading relationship”. The nuance here is important, as the language is not peremptory. A process is being envisaged, which would imply bilateral negotiations.
Nonetheless, Trump's position is contradictory, besides being overbearing. He wants the US to protect its economy and recover the country's economic strength through tariffs. He harks back to a time when the US built its industrial and trade sinews behind high tariff walls in the 1920s and 1930s. Yet, he would deny the same option to India.
Why The India-US Equation Can't Be Fair
Other than this, there cannot be a “fair” trading equation between India, a developing country with a $4 trillion economy and a per capita income of $2,700, and the US, the world's largest economy at $30 trillion, with a per capita income of $82,000. The US also enjoys a massive “unfair” advantage in the global economic framework with its control over the global dollar-based financial system because of the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, and the global fall-out of its fiscal and monetary policies.
The government of India has already, reportedly, begun inter-ministerial consultations on addressing the tariff structure issue with the impending discussions with the US in view, and, in particular, to prepare a brief for Modi for his projected visit to the White House in February. The new budget has already reduced tariffs on a few items that would benefit US exporters. His US visit will no doubt be used by Modi to offer constructive perspectives on issues of concern to Trump while committing both sides to a stronger understanding on issues of shared interests and strategic concerns.
Expansion Politics Of Yore
Trump seeks to expand US territory, to which he alluded in his inaugural speech. This unvarnished power politics of the kind practised in colonial times and in the pre-World War II period should be a cause of worry, as this violates the UN Charter and exposes weaker countries to attacks on their sovereignty by stronger powers.
Trump's claim on Greenland is being presented by him as intended to “protect the free world” suggests that is an anti-Russian and anti-Chinese move. Trump's coercive telephonic conversation with the Danish Prime Minister and a subsequent affirmation that Greenland will inevitably become part of the US have raised hackles in Europe, with countries like France ready to send troops to Greenland along with other European countries to deter Trump, though Brussels has been timid and evasive in its reaction. The geopolitical weakness and disarray of Europe lie exposed.
Fuelling Russian And Chinese Ambitions?
Trump's territorial irredentism of sorts would serve to legitimise Russia's annexation of provinces of eastern Ukraine and give reason to China's expansionism in the South and East China Seas and, even more pertinently, its claim on Taiwan. It can be helpful to India in asserting its territorial claim on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, but it also helps China in making its claims on Indian territory. Many territorial disputes exist in various parts of the world, and therefore, Trump's territorial expansionism can have exacerbating consequences.
A fall-out from US-Europe tensions would be Europe being pushed to forge stronger political, economic and technological partnerships with rising powers like India as a balancing option. China is an option, too, but it is also seen as a systemic threat, which India is not. Hence the announcement of the European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen, that she will visit India for her first trip abroad in her new term in order to upgrade, along with Prime Minister Modi, “the strategic partnership with the largest country and democracy in the world”.
(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
