US President Donald Trump, in one of his first foreign policy moves, has floated an astonishing plan for Gaza. On January 25, soon after a ceasefire was achieved between Israel and Hamas, he floated the suggestion that the US would take over Gaza and rebuild it while Jordan and Egypt take in the strip's approximately two million inhabitants.
Recently, during his press conference with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, Trump repeated that he aimed to take over and develop the Gaza Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East". As his administration scrambled to downplay it, on Thursday, Trump reiterated the idea, clarifying on his Truth Social platform that the “Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting”, while Palestinians “would have already been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region”. “No soldiers by the US would be needed!“ he said.
"Remarkable Proposal"
Netanyahu has called Trump's proposal “remarkable”, while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that he has ordered the army to prepare a plan to allow Gaza residents who wished to leave to exit the enclave voluntarily. “I welcome President Trump's bold plan. Gaza residents should be allowed the freedom to leave and emigrate, as is the norm around the world,” Katz said on X. He has also suggested that Spain, Ireland, Norway, and others opposed to military operations in Gaza should take in the Palestinians.
Trump's announcement has met with wide condemnation, not just from the Arab countries but equally from those like China and Russia, Germany, Spain and Norway, as well as Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country.
Yet, the suggestion is not without its logic. Trump is a real estate mogul whose election promise was to Make America Great Again. He and the Republicans are Israel's staunchest ally. Gaza has an abundance of offshore natural gas reserves, as does Israel. His previous administration had taken the bold step of moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognising the latter as Israel's capital, a step much of the world has baulked at.
Hints From Trump 1.0
Nevertheless, Trump's Gaza plan has caught the world by surprise. For one, the previous Trump administration had distinguished itself by the fact that no new wars had started under its watch. Even tensions with Iran were kept under a manageable threshold, with both sides carefully avoiding escalation. Moreover, Trump had taken personal interest in facilitating peace in the Middle East. In 2019, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and then-advisor, had floated an economic peace plan, hosted by the Gulf state of Bahrain. A year later, under his watch, the Abraham Accords were concluded, which entailed the normalisation of relations between Israel and the UAE first, and then between Israel and Bahrain, and Morocco. Progress had also been made on the Saudi-Israeli track.
Even Trump's recent electoral win is attributed in some measure to disenchantment with the Democrats because of their inability to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. A significant section of Arab and Muslim vote had shifted in favour of the Republicans. There was hope that Trump 2.0 would have been able to facilitate regional peace. However, his Gaza "plans" now may upend all this.
The Arabs Are Jittery
Alarm bells have already begun ringing in Arab capitals. On February 3, foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and Palestinian presidential adviser Hussein Al Sheikh, sent a joint letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio opposing plans to displace Palestinians from Gaza. Egypt and Jordan, the two countries most closely aligned with the US, and where Trump initially intended to resettle Gaza's two-million-strong population, have rejected the idea. Egypt's foreign ministry has said: “Egypt stresses the catastrophic consequences of this irresponsible act that weakens ceasefire negotiations and would squash them and incite a return of fighting.”
Reuters has reported, quoting unnamed sources, that Jordan would also not agree to the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and their resettlement in Jordan. “This is existential. There is very strong public opposition, and it's not something Jordan can entertain. This is not an economic or a security issue for Jordan, it's an identity issue,” said Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister who helped negotiate Jordan's 1994 peace treaty with Israel.
The Aid Carrot
These are two frontline states that have absorbed millions of refugees generated by earlier Arab-Israel wars and are wary about the security and economic implications of a fresh influx of Palestinians. Both receive generous US aid: Jordan gets about $1.45 billion in US military and economic assistance a year, and Egypt received $1.43 billion in 2023. Trump will probably try to tie up this aid with his Gaza plans.
But, beyond them, the entire region is wary of such mass displacement and deportation of Palestinians from their native lands and its potential to ignite renewed conflict and violence. All have battled insurgencies and terrorism, and some like Jordan and Lebanon had found themselves embroiled in conflict because of Palestinians who had resettled there. Almost all of them, save a few like Qatar and Kuwait, are opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, with which Hamas is affiliated.
The Gulf states in particular have contributed generously to the Palestinians and remain invested in a two-state solution, while also seeking to normalise ties with Israel. The UAE, for instance, linked its decision to normalise ties with Israel to the deferment of Israeli annexation of the West Bank. All eyes will be on them now, particularly on Saudi Arabia.
What Will Saudi Do?
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the leader of the Muslim and Arab world, a factor that has deterred it from normalising and establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Yet, it has also been challenged on this front. It also has contributed in billions to the Palestinians, Jordan, Egypt, and other countries in the region. In 2002, during the second intifada, it proposed the Saudi peace plan: the full Arab recognition of Israel in exchange for a two-state solution. It has steadfastly conditioned normalising ties with Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state. It is also a close American ally, and last month announced that it planned to invest around $600 billion in the United States over the next four years of Trump's presidency.
On February 4, soon after the Trump-Netanyahu press conference, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement reaffirming the Kingdom's unwavering stance on the Palestinian issue, saying that its position on the establishment of a Palestinian state was “firm and non-negotiable”, and that it will not establish relations with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state, which “is not subject to negotiation or compromise”. The statement further said that “Saudi Arabia will continue its relentless efforts to establish an independent Palestinian state … and will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that. It added that it “reaffirms its unequivocal rejection of any infringement on the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people....or attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their land". It noted that this position had been conveyed to both past and present US administrations.
However, will the Saudis walk the talk? The world will be waiting to see.
(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
