During the infamous televised confrontation with Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month, Donald Trump shouted at the Ukrainian leader saying, “You don't have any cards.” Trump was right as he also reminded Zelensky that he was losing the war with Russia and wouldn't survive without US support.
Trump briefly withdrew military support and intelligence-sharing from Ukraine, forcing it to eventually accept the 30-day ceasefire deal after talks with American officials in Saudi Arabia. That shifted the world's attention to Moscow. Will it accept or reject the ceasefire deal?
Russian leader Vladimir Putin's first reaction to the ceasefire proposal last Thursday was a conditional ‘yes', knowing that, unlike Zelensky, he has cards to play. “The idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it,” Putin said at a news conference in Moscow. “We agree with the proposals to halt the fighting, but we proceed from the assumption that the ceasefire should lead to lasting peace and remove the root causes of the crisis,” he said.
Putin Is Playing A Long Game
Putin could not have rejected the ceasefire outrightly. That would have annoyed Trump. He wants to play a long game where he wants relations with the US to go back to normal, all sanctions lifted, such that he is back at the top table of global politics. But he also wouldn't like to have an immediate ceasefire at a time when his military is making gains in Ukraine. It has now almost recaptured the entire Kursk region, which he visited last Wednesday in military fatigues.
Putin wants to drag negotiations until his objectives are met. He will try to appear cooperative while playing for time and use the situation on the ground to get the maximum concessions possible. He would also like the Western military supply to Ukraine to be stopped during the ceasefire period. He wants to know who would ensure that this is verified.
Zelensky has already warned the world about Putin's intentions. He has described Putin's comments as ‘manipulative' and said the Russian leader was “essentially preparing to reject” the ceasefire proposal.
But the Kremlin has said it is “cautiously optimistic” about the ceasefire, a term also used by US officials about the proposal. Trump said the US had “good and productive discussions with Putin”. He was referring to his envoy Steve Witkoff's talks with the Russian leader in Moscow last Thursday.
Trump is now set to speak with Putin to discuss Russia's view on the truce. The US President is keen to have a ceasefire in force within days and a peace deal to be signed quickly. He looks like a man in a hurry as he wants to focus attention on other pressing issues and cement his legacy.
Is The Korean Armistice A Model For Peace In Ukraine?
Trump appears to be as impatient as Mao was in 1951, when he wanted to conclude a peace agreement to end the Korean war in two weeks. Instead, the negotiations lasted for two years and the document signed on July 27, 1953, was not a peace deal but the armistice agreement that ended the three-year-old war. The peace deal was never signed.
So, though a Ukrainian armistice is likely, we need to understand that the Korean War was a proxy conflict between the US and China, fought on Korean soil, unlike the one in Ukraine. The armistice was signed by military commanders from China and North Korea on one side, with the US-led United Nations Command signing on behalf of the international community.
Syngman Rhee's then-government in South Korea did not sign the deal as he wanted to continue fighting for Korean unification. It was the Chinese who put pressure on the North Koreans to sign it. A proper peace agreement would have required both Koreas to agree.
Nonetheless, there still is a similarity between the Korean conflict and the one in Ukraine. Putin and Zelensky are miles apart from agreeing on a lasting peace deal, despite claiming that they both want it.
What Will A Deal Be Like?
Putin's idea of the root causes of the war threatens Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state. When he invaded the country three years ago, he wanted it to be part of Russia. He has already succeeded in capturing most of Donbas during the current conflict. Ukraine's Crimea region was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Zelensky can't afford to sign a deal where he allows Putin to keep large parts of Ukraine. So, an immediate ceasefire followed by an armistice is fine, but not a peace deal. In an armistice, he may allow Russia to keep Crimea but ask for Donbas. Putin is unlikely to agree to even that.
The Trump administration has said that Kyiv can't get back all the territory it has lost to Russia. It appears to have also accepted Putin's other core demand: that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO. So, Zelensky will be negotiating from a position of weakness.
Kursk: The Biggest Blunder Of Kyiv
Ukraine's position has been further weakened by its ill-fated offensive last August in Russia's Kursk region, which is now seen as its biggest strategic mistake. The surprise offensive, which resulted in Kyiv quickly capturing hundreds of kilometres of Russian territory, was hailed in the West as a clever move that could be used as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.
It was also believed then that Russia would be forced to move its forces from other occupied areas of Ukraine. But Russia, with the help of North Korean soldiers, fought back and slowly regained its territory. Russia now says it has regained control of the region's main town, Sudzha.
According to Trump, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been surrounded by the Russian military in Kursk. He urged Russia to spare their lives. Putin, in turn, responded by saying that Ukrainians would be treated with "dignity in line with the norms of international law and the laws of the Russian Federation" if they gave up arms and surrendered.
Ensuring A Ceasefire Holds
The Korean armistice has held for all these years because the US deployed its military force in South Korea after the agreement in 1953. For a Ukrainian deal to succeed, it is vital to have similar guarantees. No wonder Zelensky has been pleading for them.
But Trump has refused to provide any such guarantees, saying that once American engineers start working in Ukraine to extract minerals and other resources, Russia will not dare to attack the country. Kyiv, naturally, is not convinced. European countries that don't trust Russia have offered to deploy their troops in Ukraine to guard against any violations of the ceasefire agreement by Moscow. But Russia has objected to any deployments of European forces in Ukraine.
India's Role
During his news conference on Thursday, Putin thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders of China, Brazil and South Africa for their efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict. This suggests India has been active behind the scenes. Ukraine featured in Modi's talks with Trump in Washington last month. Indian diplomats have also been in touch with Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin would prefer peacekeepers from India and other BRICS countries if he had to accept them. With its long experience of sending peacekeepers around the world, India would be a strong candidate, and Modi's good relations with both Putin and Trump will make India more acceptable to play that role, though Ukraine would still prefer its European partners.
US Pressure Mounts on Russia
The Trump administration is now building pressure on Moscow to accept the ceasefire deal. The US media reports that Washington is toughening sanctions on Russian oil, gas and banking sectors by further restricting access to US payment systems.
Putin knows he needs to end the war. It has cost him several hundred thousand lives, according to Western estimates. West's sanctions have nearly crippled Russia's economy. Trump has already warned that he could destroy Russia financially if Moscow doesn't accept the ceasefire proposal.
If Russia defies Trump, the new set of sanctions could apply to countries like India, which have been buying Russian oil and arms. With Trump in the White House, that can't be ruled out.
But as Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly pointed out, Europe has been buying much more Russian oil and gas than India does since the Ukraine conflict.
Putin Will Bargain Hard
Putin will try to prolong the fighting in Ukraine to maximise military gains and will also bargain hard over the terms of any agreement. There are reports in the US media that Keith Kellogg, a retired American general and Trump envoy, has been excluded from Ukraine peace talks at Russia's request.
Lt Gen Kellogg is said to be too closely aligned with Ukraine, so Russia feels he should not be part of any American negotiating team. With his conditions, Putin has indicated that the road to peace negotiations will be long and rocky. He has put the ball back into Trump's court. The US leader knows that, and he is using more carrots than sticks to lure him to the table.
It is important, however, that a peace agreement does not legitimise Russia's land grab in Ukraine. This will only embolden other powers like China to do the same to its neighbours.
So, an armistice rather than a peace agreement is a likely and better solution for Ukraine. Killings of Russians and Ukrainians need to stop soon and the war must end, even if Ukraine remains a frozen conflict.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News and is based in London)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
