The election this year is being called one of the most consequential contests in US history and it will have a very significant impact on the world too. Here's why.
US-China Trade War
This is one of the leading reasons for the current global fragmentation. It was Trump who initiated a shift in policy towards China in his previous tenure from 2016-2020, raising tariffs on Chinese products and vowing to narrow the trade deficit. He accused Beijing of misusing international economic institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and said it was responsible for “the greatest theft in the history of the world”.
The Biden administration didn't totally abandon what Trump started. In fact, from AUKUS to the renewed focus on Quad, Biden shored up security alliances against China. On the other hand, the policy moves over the last eight years between Trump and Biden have resulted in China and Russia going into a tighter embrace. This has deepened the fissures between the Global West and the Global East.
Hence, a lot rests on the new US President—will the new POTUS deepen the divide, will global collaboration become even more daunting, or will the new President weigh in favour of cooperation to prevent any further global fragmentation?
Democracy vs Authoritarianism
The American society is “emotionally polarised”, as stated in a 2023 report by Carnegie Endowment of International Peace. Interestingly, it says Americans are not as ideologically polarised as they believe themselves to be, which means there are possible overlaps regarding policies on many critical subjects, such as abortion and gun violence.
However, both sides hold a dislike for the other, preventing any meaningful conversation. The world's oldest democracy, the US, is often seen as an example of the success or failure of democracy, especially at a time of rising authoritarianism. Consensus-building is a vital feature of a democracy. The new US President needs to be a unifier and consensus builder to stand as a true representative of the liberal world order.
Transfer Of Power
Another critical democratic norm is to respect the mandate of the people and allow for the smooth transition of power. There is genuine concern about a repeat of the January 6 insurrection if Donald Trump loses again. The Republicans seem to be building a ground for rejecting the result in case of an adverse outcome. The rhetoric from Trump, that the 2020 election was stolen, has resurfaced in the last leg of the election.
In an unusual move but one that's indicative of what's at stake, a report from Policy Horizons Canada, a think tank, advised Ottawa to be aware of the possibility of a civil war in the US. Though this was only a single sentence in the otherwise long report titled Disruptions on the Horizon, it said “...ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest escalate, plunging the country into civil war”. Even if remote, the very fact that the possibility of unrest is being factored in is a cause of concern for a world that can ill afford any more economic jolts.
Immigration Policy
Trump has said he will initiate the largest deportation operation in the history of America if voted to power. A Pew survey says “Roughly six-in-ten Trump supporters (63%) say there should be a national effort to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the US.” The report points out that there is growing intolerance towards immigrants and “since 2021, the share of voters who favour a national effort by law enforcement to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the US has increased by 11 percentage points, from 26% to 37%.”
Meanwhile, 'Tougher', Kamala Harris's campaign ad, also portrayed a stricter stance on immigration. Many also believe she has stepped back from her earlier position on decriminalising illegal border crossings.
Simultaneous conflicts are currently underway from Ukraine to Gaza. The office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees says by the end of 2023, there were 43.4 million refugees globally. This is a time when countries—especially the richest nations—should approach the subject from a humanitarian point of view. In this context, a tougher immigration policy will give a cue to the rest of the world to harden borders against those in need.
Ending Wars
Which way will the Ukraine and Gaza tensions go under the new US President? Trump says he will be able to end the Ukraine war immediately. The apprehension in Europe is that he will do so by ceding Ukrainian territory to Putin. Meanwhile, there is unlikely to be a change in position from what the Biden administration took on Ukraine if Harris comes to power.
On Gaza, Trump says Netanyahu should “get over with it fast”, indicating even further intensification of military action in Gaza. Even though Kamala has been criticised for being party to the Biden administration's support for Israeli actions in Gaza, there are those who believe that her recent turn towards the humanitarian aspect of the conflict gives space for building pressure against Netanyahu's illegal war.
The wars and conflicts that are leading the world into a further flux can be resolved only through the political will of the leader of the global hegemon, the United States of America.
(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has extensively reported on public policy and global affairs.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author