Opinion | Can A Reluctant Michelle Obama Replace Biden Amid Clamour For Change?

Michelle Obama has quite clearly said no to running for office in the past. However, not only is eight years a long time in politics, but the current circumstances are such for the Democrats that it might just make even the unlikely happen. 

Michelle Obama, the former first lady and wife of Barack Obama, has emerged in a Reuters/Ipsos poll as the Democrat with the best chance of beating Donald Trump in a head-to-head fight this November. The hypothetical poll showed that she had a 50% backing as opposed to a 39% for Trump.

A poll by Rasmussen also placed Michelle Obama as the top choice to replace Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee, at 47%. 

Democrats Have To Act Fast

With just a month left before the virtual roll call on August 7 that will precede their National Convention on 19th August in Illinois, the Democrats have a very small window to bite the bullet on Biden's nomination. The worry about his candidature turned into a clamour after the first presidential debate on CNN on June 27. Biden was seen losing track of his answers and speaking in starts and stops, especially at the start of the debate. 

But replacing Biden at this stage is easier said than done unless he himself chooses to step aside. This is because the party rules ask the delegates to use their "good conscience" to go with the candidate they pledged support to from the start. In this case, it will be Biden for a vast majority of delegates. He had virtually swept all contests, suffering a setback only in the American Samoa caucus, where he was defeated by Jason Palmer. 

Here is what the rules say - "No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person's presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected." It also adds, "Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them."

Biden "Absolutely Not" Going Anywhere

However, Biden - and the White House - has said he is not going anywhere. In the press briefing on Tuesday, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said "absolutely not", when asked whether Biden could step down. She added that President Biden understands it was not his best night. And it is fair for people to ask that question. "But we cannot forget his record and what he has been able to do. We cannot forget how he has been able to deliver for the people of America for almost four years, and that matters too."

The thought behind going with Biden despite his age and health concerns was that he had successfully beaten Donald Trump in 2020 and the Democrats believed that he could still do the same in 2024. But after the first Presidential debate, the confidence has been shaky.

Meanwhile, in the Reuters/Ipsos polls, Vice-President Kamala Harris received 42% support in the hypothetical straight fight with Trump. A CNN poll that shows Biden six points behind Trump had Harris trailing the former president only by two points, fuelling speculation that she could be the preferred choice to replace Biden, if required. However, a statement from Harris's office said that "Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden".

 The other names doing the rounds are California Governor Gavin Newson and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has extensively reported on public policy and global affairs.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author