It was observed in a 2016 Harvard Business Review paper: "A study of the world's 2,500 largest public companies shows that companies that scramble to find replacements for departing CEOs forgo an average of $1.8 billion in shareholder value. A separate study reveals that the longer it takes a company to name a new CEO during a succession crisis, the worse it subsequently performs relative to its peers."
What holds true for companies is also relevant to political parties. A poorly executed succession plan for a company leads to a loss of investor/shareholder value, while for political parties, it translates into shrinking support base and electoral setbacks.
The paper concludes that while the concept of a perfect successor is yet to evolve fully, there are steps a board can take to find one, with the most crucial being to have a well-thought-out plan and to execute it diligently, regardless of the challenges.
Let's apply the findings of this paper to PM Modi's succession planning and contrast it with the Congress' approach in recent years.
To illustrate, we can examine the BJP's choice of Chief Ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and the signals they aim to send. In Madhya Pradesh, replacing the incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan right after a resounding victory might have seemed like a formidable task. However, the new BJP's unwavering commitment to a generational change has emboldened it to make decisions that, on the face of it, may appear risky.
Since the new BJP has a systematic plan in place for effecting a generational shift, it boldly nominates candidates who might surprise traditional observers. These choices are made with an eye on the party's future readiness.
Take, for example, the selection of Mohan Yadav as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. He represents the new generation of leaders, and is steeped in RSS culture since his student days. He is from a region in the state that has been a BJP stronghold and belongs to a social group that wields substantial influence in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Rise of generation-next in BJP
His selection is strategically aimed at making the BJP future-ready, not only within his state but also in neighbouring ones. By choosing him, the BJP not only consolidates support from Other Backward Classes (OBC), but also seeks to divide the Yadav community, which has largely stayed away from the party in states where they hold sway.
Similarly, the selection of Vishnu Deo Sai, a tribal leader who has risen through the ranks, as Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh is another attempt to attract a group that has been cautious in its support for the BJP.
Recent assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan have hinted at a willingness among tribal groups to change their political preferences. According to Election Commission data, the BJP secured victory in 17 out of the 29 tribal-dominated seats in Chhattisgarh, a significant increase from just three in 2018. Post-poll data of CSDS (Centre for Study of Developing Societies) also indicates that nearly 46 percent of tribal votes went to the BJP, compared to just 42 percent for the Congress. Notably, the Congress had dominated tribal-dominated seats in the 2018 assembly polls in the state.
In Rajasthan, the BJP chose Bhajan Lal Sharma, a Brahmin leader, to lead the government. With a background in the RSS since his student days, he is a first-time MLA from the Sanganer assembly constituency, a seat the BJP has consistently won since 2003.
All three chief ministerial selections share a common theme - they have ascended through the ranks. This sends a resounding message to all party workers that "Sabka time aayega" (everyone will get a shot at the top job). Political pundits emphasize that this message is crucial to keeping the BJP's well-oiled election machinery charged and motivated at all times.
Contrast this with the generational landscape of top leaders within the Congress, across states. In the grand old party, proximity to the highest echelons of leadership has traditionally been the primary factor for advancement. This tendency has given rise to a perception, both within the party and outside of it, that the Congress tends to operate in a rather insular manner at the highest levels. This perception has become a chronic issue that has adversely affected the party's electoral performance in election after election.
(Mayank Mishra is Consulting Editor, NDTV.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.