One of the greatest electoral races in the world, the election to the office of the President of the United States (POTUS), is about to begin. By the end of the fourth week of August, Democrats will finalise their candidate to take on former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
After the disastrous debate last month between Biden and Trump, Democrats are now struggling with the candidature of the incumbent POTUS after he recently announced that he will not seek re-election. His endorsement of Vice-President Kamala Harris has yet to secure final approval from party leaders. Naturally, time is short for the Democrats to mount an effective challenge.
The American political landscape changed drastically after Trump escaped an assassination attempt earlier this month. Though many argue that the election is not a done deal yet, the odds seem to favour the GOP heavily as of now. The party may wrest not only the White House but both Houses of the U.S. Congress, that is, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The 'Transition Project'
Governments and administrations across the globe are trying to estimate what a second Trump administration might bring. Of course, unlike 2016, they now have the benefit of hindsight to draft a calibrated policy to engage with the United States. Here, besides previous experience, policy planners are dipping into a 900-odd page document, the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, in which domain experts have listed department-wise policy prescriptions and drawn a roadmap for the Conservatives to effect fundamental changes in the way the country is governed.
The Project, helmed by Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think tank that reflects Republican views, is considered a key and expansive input given that Trump in his first administration had drawn heavily from the organisation's expertise. Trump may not have officially granted recognition to the document, but it is being read by policy planners with wide interest.
How India-US Relations May Evolve
Bilateral relations between the two democracies are characterised by India as a 'Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership'. One defining feature of that is the fact that New Delhi enjoys bipartisan support in Washington. Successive administrations, whether Democrat or Republican, have continued to engage with India. From deep sea to outer space, the partnership encompasses a wide range of subjects. By extension, members of the U.S. Congress have also shown a greater accommodative spirit over the last three decades.
As for multi-sector engagement, three key areas have been defence cooperation, strategic engagement and trade and investment. Going by his previous administration, these are likely to remain Trump's top priorities if he manages to return as President. He is riding on his 'Make America Great Again' pitch and aims to restore to the US shop floors across industrial units that shifted their jobs to off-shore facilities.
What's In For Trade Relations
Statistics for 2022 show that the India-US bilateral trade for merchandise and services stood at $191.43 billion. Of this, while India's exports accounted for $118.53 billion, US exports were around $72.90 billion. India enjoyed a balance of trade of over $100 billion in its favour.
A second Trump administration is expected to exert pressure towards expanding trade and services with all countries, including India. The section on trade in the Project 2025 report, quoting US government figures, states that of the $1,138 billion deficit that the US has with 14 major trading partners, India is in 11th position. Negotiators can expect hard bargaining, with each side insisting on securing the best deal for the country.
Defence And Strategic Ties
The ties in this sector continue to flourish, especially since the signing of the Framework for Defence Cooperation in 2005, which was renewed for another decade in 2015. Besides designating India as a 'Major Defence Partner', the pact moved up New Delhi to grant it licence exemption for Strategic Trade Authorisation.
Last year, both sides also finalised a Defence Industrial Cooperation Roadmap and launched a Defence Acceleration Ecosystem to build a network of universities, incubators, think tanks and private investments.
The sector will be watched with much interest given that India is working on a plan to build specialised industrial corridors to manufacture defence equipment in the country with technology transfers, something that American companies working with critical technologies are not particularly keen about. However, this contrasts with the decision on Capitol Hill to provide India with incentives to wean it away from Russian military hardware.
Finally, India is part of the Quad and Indo-Pacific groupings, both of which got a boost during the previous Trump administration. While China, Iran and North Korea occupy a central place in the report's analysis, India's reference in the document appears in relation to Pakistan and tensions over Jammu and Kashmir, and suggests a 'Quad Plus' approach.
(K.V. Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author