Opinion: What Ladakh Election Results Mean For BJP And INDIA Bloc

The INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc scored its first major victory in polls to the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council-Kargil, winning 22 of 26 seats. The National Conference (NC) secured 12 seats while its alliance partner Congress bagged 10. The BJP could win only two seats and independent candidates won two. This was the first election in the region since Ladakh was designated a Union Territory in 2019 after the abolition of Article 370 that granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir.

The Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council has 30 seats and elections were held for 26 seats. Four councillors with voting rights are nominated by the administration. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) contested four seats. Mehbooba Mufti's Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) didn't contest. The Congress and the NC had a pre-poll alliance yet the Congress fielded 22 candidates and the NC fought on 17 seats. For both parties, the arrangement was restricted to areas where there was a tough contest with the BJP. NC leader Omar Abdullah has rightly said the result is a wake-up call for the BJP.

This election is even more significant as the first key vote after the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, and the establishment of the Ladakh Union Territory. The NC had pitched this election as a referendum on the Centre's decision.

Experts from the region say the BJP's vote share is mainly in the areas adjoining Buddhist majority Leh, which votes differently from Kargil, a Shia Muslim dominated region. Voters are influenced by local religious bodies. The abrogation of Article 370 was the demand of the Buddhist Leh region and Jammu. The BJP acceded to the demand and the party has done well there. It is Kargil, a Muslim-dominated region, that rejected the scrapping of Article 370, and this is where the NC and Congress have done well.

The BJP had fought the elections on the development agenda it had promised for Ladakh on the lines of what is being done in Jammu and Kashmir. The party had also promised to enhance the Union Territory budget.

After the last elections in 2018, the BJP had three members in the previous council, of which two were defectors from the PDP. The BJP's only winning candidate in the last election Stanzin Lapka, retained his seat from Cha constituency. In Chiktan area, where the BJP holds some influence; its candidate Padma Dorjey wrested the Stakchay Khangral constituency from the Congress.

The council polls outcome reflects poorly on the work and reputation of BJP MP Jamyang Tsering Namgyal, who was made president of the Ladakh unit of the party in 2020, after his feisty support in parliament of the Modi government's move to abolish Article 370.

"The BJP will have a lot to ponder and they must revisit their policy before the 2024 election. They will have to look for local people and issues to win the elections. Ladakh is a strategic region from the national security issue perspective. A suitable leader is missing in the BJP in Ladakh. Election templates followed in other states can't be implemented here," said Phunchok Stobdan, a political expert from Ladakh.  

Rahul Gandhi's tour of Ladakh and his interactions with the local community as part of the 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' helped the Congress cash in on local sentiment. The people of Kargil wanted to stay with the Valley. Sensing the feeling, the Congress wisely extended its support to the local association, Kargil Democratic Alliance, which was formed on the premise of statehood and special guarantees protecting Ladakh's culture, land, jobs, and environment.      

Muslims form approximately 46. 6 per cent of Ladakh's population while Buddhists comprise 39.7 per cent. After the abrogation of Article 370, there was a schism between the two communities, with Kargil protesting and Leh celebrating the union territory status. However, the emerging ground realities - the decreasing number of government jobs and other opportunities compared to what it was earlier with special status - have brought the people together in their common demand for statehood, and cultural and electoral representation.

Local experts also feel that there is a disconnect between the Centre and the aspirations of the people. The Centre's representative, the Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, is disconnected from the masses according to locals, and that is perceived to be one of the reasons for the BJP ending up with just two seats. This speculation needs more analysis and the party will smartly do that as course correction prior to 2024 elections.

For the INDIA bloc, it is a morale booster the opposition sorely needed, also a signal that if they stay united and choose seats between them wisely, they can be a potent force as they go into next year's parliamentary elections. 

INDIA parties must also realise that they cannot simply blame EVM (electronic voting machines) when they lose elections. The EVMs were used for the first time in these council elections, at 278 polling stations across the region.

Perhaps, this result is an answer to the Ladakh administration's controversial decision to deny the 'plough' symbol to the National Conference, which was criticised by the Supreme Court. Such decisions are always laced with the perception of a high-handed approach by the local administration, which represents the centre, i.e., BJP. It might have generated a sympathy wave for the NC.

The result of any election - local body, autonomous council or state assembly - will be construed as a reflection of the public mood. It is key for losing party to take its learning from the result and quickly put mitigation measures in place. For the winners, it's validation of a strategy they would like to replicate. Then again, each state and region of the country is different.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author