What Rahul Gandhi's Presidency Will Mean For The Congress

The prolonged yawn over talk of Rahul Gandhi taking over the Congress from mother Sonia Gandhi can finally end.

Rahul Gandhi will be enconsed as "CP" which is what the party leaders call their leader before the Gujarat election results are known in December, in a sense insulating him from any backlash. This promotion will happen after a token contest (nobody is likely to run against him for President, so only the formality of him filing his bid has to be handled) and it will fulfil his mother's life-long dream. Note that this will be the fifth generation of the Nehru dynasty holding charge of the party - few large political outfits in the world have seen this sort of family control.

So what will a Rahul Gandhi presidency mean for both the country's oldest political party and the country? The 47-year-old has of late seemed to shrug off the label of the reluctant heirloom politician that was the conventional wisdom about him. He has run a tight and personal campaign in Gujarat, attacking the Modi government on its weak spots - the twin blows of demonetisation and the inept roll-out of the GST which has seen several tweaks. Rahul Gandhi termed it the "Gabbar Singh Tax" and abandoned his usual laid-back style to jump in quickly and claim credit when GST slabs were rationalized yet again a few weeks ago.

Gandhi seems to have a visceral dislike of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has unleashed a host of cases against his entire family; a defining characteristic of his careeer as an opposition leader after led the Congress to a historic low of 44 seats in 2014 is his spirited opposition to Modi. Gandhi got the Modi government's land acquisition ordinance buried after his jibe of "suit boot ki sarkar" and his description of demonetisation as the "fair and lovely" scheme struck a chord.

Yet, despite landing the occasional blow, Gandhi was not perceived as a serious, 24/7 hard-ball political player specially in contrast to his towering rival, Modi. A lot of that can be blamed on a well-funded BJP IT Cell campaign which derided him as "Pappu" and mass-manufactured and distributed jokes about him on social media especially WhatsApp, their weapon of choice.

Gandhi seemed to acknowledge this in recent comments, stating an image which was nothing like him had been tailor-made for him. Earlier this month, in Gujarat, he said, ''there are 100-200 paid BJP workers who sit in a call centre and attack me and spread lies about me". Yet, Modi's jibes about "Shehzada" (prince) still find traction and resonance in a country where 75 percent of the population is below 35 and impatient with inherited privilege and dynasty.

Congress leaders who are publicly thrilled with the prospect of Gandhi taking over concede in private that nothing much will change. Gandhi Junior has pretty much been calling the shots for a while now as his mother ensured that she ceded decision-making and centre-stage to him much before the campaign for the Uttar Pradesh election began last year. It's only when he has run in to rough weather such as the disastrous defection of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to the NDA that Sonia and her band of seasoned crisis managers have taken over.

It's Sonia Gandhi's willingness to cede power that has ensured that her consigliere reconcile to the change and fall in line. "It's her dream to see Rahul as (Congress) President and hopefully, Prime Minister," said a senior Congress leader, used often by Sonia as a trouble-shooter "She saved the party when we were on the verge of implosion. We owe her this. The Gandhis are the glue that holds the party together. If it were not for them, the other leaders would destroy one another. Mrs Gandhi wants to retire to the hills and completely hand over to Rahul."
 Rahul Gandhi seems to have put on hold his fanciful ideas of transforming the Congress as he tried in an abortive experiment in the youth Congress. He has made his peace with the reality of dynasty in the party which entitles him to the big boss role.

And with his take over, the entire generation of young leaders who were being kept in suspended animation will finally get their shot. This motley bunch of now middle-aged leaders (called youth icons only in posters) will come into their own. So expect Jyotiraditya Scindia to finally get charge of Madhya Pradesh after Gandhi is elected. Madhya Pradesh is facing a lot of anti-incumbency and the Congress is likely to get a more positive result there then in the upcoming two elections in Himachal and Gujarat. Another likely beneficiary: Ajay Maken, the Delhi Congress Chief, is likely to get a formal role as a Gandhi aide.

Rahul Gandhi's relationship with Sonia-era leaders such as her political secretary Ahmed Patel, initially extremely strained, has recently thawed. Ashok Gehlot, who is a fierce rival to Gandhi friend Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan, has made himself indispensable to Gandhi in Gujarat where he and a committee are dealing with ticket distribution and ensuring that the three community leaders who the Congress is banking on in an election which is suddenly all about caste stay on message. The most fractious and potentially most important Hardik Patel, leader of the Patidars, is being handled by a league of senior Congress leaders including Kapil Sibal; yet, sparks are still flying. Gandhi will need to personally step in and assuage Patel.

Senior leaders say that of late, Gandhi is far more amenable about meeting senior leaders such as P Chidambaram who meets him once a fortnight. He also has regular meetings with Kamal Nath and former PM Manmohan Singh.

Despite Gandhi spending more than a decade in parliament, he remains an unknown quantity to his own party and the country at large. He is extremely close to his sister Priyanka Gandhi, her two children and husband Robert Vadra, and a close group of gym buddies. He has no political confidante the way Modi has Amit Shah. "Rahul-ji seems to almost shun politicians. We don't know if he has a political manager even in his office. All they seem to do is fix appointments. Who provides the political brief is a mystery. His father Rajiv Gandhi was totally different. He picked out young leaders brought them to Delhi and groomed them - like Ahmed Patel and Gehlot. Mrs Gandhi also had a sharp eye on the political pulse. Every time you meet her, she surprises you by knowing even the Delhi gossip. While Rajiv Gandhi did get his friends such as Arun Singh and Arun Nehru in politics, I wonder if Rahul Gandhi will do the same," said a senior Congress leader.

Sources say he has worked on his public speaking after admitting that Modi beats him hollow as an orator. Other changes - a more media-friendly approach and a much-needed lightening up with Piddi the dog and martial arts videos shared on Twitter.

But Rahul Gandhi's real redemption will be to make the party win again. To date, he has only presided over spectacular defeat. His mother won the party two general elections and served a tenure as the longest CP. He has big shoes to fill.

(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.