Senior Congress Lok Sabha MP Shashi Tharoor is quite the darling of the middle classes. He is charming, well spoken, erudite, a skilled debator and has a felicity with the English language that he uses to great effect by throwing around lengthy, utterly unpronounceable words that no-one understands.
Yet, despite his widely acknowledged talents, or maybe because of them, Tharoor stands at a crossroads in his political career today, unsure of which route to take in case he reaches a dead-end with no way to get back.
The Ruling Trio
His party's ruling clique in his home state of Kerala, the trio of powerful AICC general secretary and Rahul Gandhi confidante K.C. Venugopal, leader of opposition in the legislative assembly V.D. Satheeshan, and man for all seasons Ramesh Chennithala, is unwilling to cede space in state politics to him.
At the national level, Rahul Gandhi's obsession with caste leaves little room for English-speaking elites as he scouts for OBCs, Dalits and tribals to craft a new Congress of, for and by the marginalised.
The danger of being deemed irrelevant is real and imminent in this scenario. It is also unacceptable for Tharoor, who has grown used to being in the limelight after a meteoric rise in politics despite being an outsider. He quickly became a star with a ministership to boot during the UPA years under the guardianship of Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi.
Rebellion In The Ranks?
At 68, Tharoor seems convinced he has enough years of active public life left in him to go down without a fight. He fired the first salvo with crafty timing, boasting of "options'" if the Congress had no use for his services.
His rebellious noises could not have come at a more inopportune moment for the party. Assembly polls are due in Kerala early next year. It's an election the Congress not only hopes to, but desperately needs to win to shake off the 'loser' tag it has acquired after a string of defeats in recent state ballots.
Tharoor does not have the stature of Congress greats in Kerala like K. Karunakaran or even A.K. Antony. However, he is a four-time MP from Thiruvanthapuram with enough of a national profile to make headlines every time he opens his mouth.
The Congress can hardly afford dissonance in its ranks on the eve of a crucial election. Nor can it contend with restlessness in its parliamentary party. It has just 99 members in the Lok Sabha, a number it reached with great difficulty after humiliating scores in two elections.
It is already facing the wrath of its INDIA partners who have been heaping contempt on the Congress for its dismal performance in assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand last year and in Delhi this year.
Is Congress Listening?
Tharoor's warring moves had their impact. Rahul Gandhi summoned him to Delhi for a meeting that Tharoor had been seeking for months but was denied. It was a one-on-one meeting, so reports are sketchy. But Tharoor is believed to have placed his cards on the table and asked for a more meaningful role in the party, either in Kerala or in Parliament or in the AICC.
It is telling that Tharoor has not been allowed to participate in any major debate in Parliament, which is his acknowledged forte. He is said to have been keen to speak in the discussion on the Constitution. However, that privilege was given to Manish Tiwari instead.
Rahul Gandhi was quite noncommittal with Tharoor but the fact that the latter decided to attend the scheduled meeting of Kerala leaders in New Delhi to discuss future strategies in the poll-bound state is an indication that he is still hopeful of finding space in the Congress.
The LDF-UDF Question
Although Tharoor talked of "options'' in the podcast that has gone viral, he seems to be in two minds about acting on them. Commmunist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) leader Isaac Thomas has said that Tharoor would be welcome in the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) alliance. But Tharoor would only be a small fish in a big pond in a party swarming with ambitious leaders.
In any case, there is no guarantee that the LDF will win a third term in office in Kerala and offer Tharoor a ministerial berth. The state is locked in revolving door politics with the CPI(M)-led LDF and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) alternating governments for the past many decades.
The LDF's second consecutive victory in 2020 was a complete surprise and came on the back of a split in the UDF, which played hard ball with the Mani faction of the Kerala Congress and virtually forced an important ally into the arms of the CPI(M). A significant section of the Christian vote loyal to the Kerala Congress deserted the UDF and helped the LDF coast to victory.
BJP May Be Impractical
There are also feelers from the BJP, which is making a desperate push for a breakthrough in Kerala. However, most observers feel that the BJP has a long way to go before it can hope to win the state. Inducting Tharoor into the BJP or joining hands with a regional party headed by him can, at best, eat into Congress votes and possibly help the LDF to win a third successive election.
The best that Tharoor can hope for in this situation is to be rewarded with a ministerial portfolio in the Modi government. But he may have to be content with a downsized profile like another Congress renegade, Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has all but vanished from the public radar except when the BJP high command wants to enjoy the spectacle of an erstwhile royal sparring with a political dynast (Rahul Gandhi).
Weighing All 'Options'
Tharoor craves the spotlight. So he must be weighing his "options" very carefully, lest he jumps from the frying pan into the fire. According to well-placed sources who have some inkling of what is going on in his mind, Tharoor is in touch with another senior Congress MP from Kerala, M.K. Raghavan, who apparently also resents the trio lording it over the state unit. It seems that after a long discussion, they have decided to wait and watch till the panchayat elections are held six months from now. Tharoor must hope that the local polls will indicate which way the political winds are blowing in the state and help him to make up his mind about his future course of action.
In any case, he would certainly not want to go the way of Karunakaran who left the Congress to form his own party. Despite his stature, popularity and political astuteness, his party flopped and Karunakaran faded into history.
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
