Any analysis of the heinous terrorist attack at Pahalgam must begin with an outright condemnation and a deep expression of regret for the loss of innocent lives in the most brutal manner. It must also include a firm resolve to avenge this atrocity against the perpetrators from Pakistan, who, unable to take their own nation forward, seek to pull others down.
The 22 April 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam marks a significant escalation in Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. The shift of focus from south of the Pir Panjal (Rajouri-Poonch) back to the Valley suggests a recalibration by Pakistan's ISI and its affiliated terror outfits. The attack occurred amidst a potentially high tourist season, G20 legacies, and recent political outreach efforts in J&K - all of which threatened Pakistan's relevance in the evolving Kashmir narrative. The strategic symbolism of the event, therefore, is immense.
Pakistan's likely strategic intent was to reignite terrorism and revive the fast-dwindling separatist sentiment in the Valley, thereby disrupting the socio-economic normalization and democratic engagement that the Government of India has been successfully promoting. The reassertion of Pakistan's relevance in the Kashmir discourse, amid India's diplomatic gains in the Global South, was probably a key driver of this move. Another objective was to destabilize India's progressive and visibly successful peace-building efforts, particularly after the successful Assembly elections in J&K.
There is sufficient reason to believe that Pakistan's growing internal discontent - including Baloch unrest, TTP attacks, and economic crises - also motivated the regime to control domestic narratives through external aggression. However, the most heinous aspect of the attack was the deliberate targeting of Hindu male tourists, a calculated attempt to ignite communal sentiment within India. It is undeniable that instructions to this effect were likely passed down to the terrorists to be followed implicitly.
Many have asked me whether there was a linkage or similarity between this attack and the 7 October 2023 Hamas assault on a peaceful gathering near the Gaza-Israel border, which left 1,200 innocents dead and 250 taken hostage, thus triggering the ongoing Gaza conflict. I do not believe there was a transnational joint intent here, though the Pahalgam attack exhibited several similarities. A visit by Hamas elements to Pakistan had earlier been reported. In my recent writings and talks, I had often concluded there was a strong possibility of a copycat event of this nature occurring just across the LoC or international border on our side. The fast-improving situation in Kashmir and the increasing footprint of tourism should have served as a warning. The strategic impact of such an event, particularly with the deliberate use of religious profiling, has deeply struck India's societal psyche.
From India's strategic security perspective, there is an immediate need to restore public confidence and ensure there is no repeat of such attacks, especially in high-footfall areas. The strategic objective must be to retain and strengthen control over the narrative of stability and development in Kashmir.
The focus of our diplomats
Our diplomacy must ensure that Pakistan's claims receive no international traction, project complete resilience, and prepare for a calibrated response or retaliation, fully mindful of its future implications.
There is a range of strategic options available to India. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) convened and issued five directives, primarily in the diplomatic domain. The decision to hold in abeyance or suspend the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is a bold one, even as we await the technical ramifications.
It is important to clarify: India has not revoked the treaty but suspended it, pending a change in Pakistan's attitude towards Indian demands. The waters of the three western rivers of the Indus system - the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab - are meant for Pakistan's exclusive use. However, speculation remains about how exactly Pakistan will be affected and to what extent India can regulate the waters. As a water-deficient state, Pakistan will always remain on edge regarding India's capability to control water flow.
The CCS's approach has not been soft, as some may argue based on the absence of immediate military action. It should be clear to Indian citizens and to analysts demanding knee-jerk responses that the Government has chosen a mature course. Holding action in abeyance while awaiting the opportune moment keeps the adversary in a state of uncertainty.
When it launched the Pahalgam attack, Pakistan's deep state had anticipated an Indian response. Reserve formations were quickly moved into deployment areas. In a financially constrained nation, maintaining such formations at high readiness is a significant challenge. Our response does not need to be confined to a narrow time window. It can - and should - be executed when the fullest success is guaranteed.
Renewed vigilance required in the valley
In the interim, we must maintain a strong and vigilant posture in J&K to deny Pakistan any further inroads, especially with the limited number of terrorists currently operating there.
During this period, enhanced troop presence and proactive counter-terror operations in the Valley must continue, with greater coordination under the Unified Command system. A tighter synergy between the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), military intelligence, and local J&K police units is essential and there is no alternative for that.
Reviving the global narrative around Pakistan's support for terrorism must be a strategic priority. Leveraging platforms like the FATF, which has previously played a significant role, and countering Pakistani narratives at international think tanks must be pursued with renewed vigour.
While upgrades in surveillance, fencing, and drone-based monitoring along the LoC have been implemented, our technical capabilities to track transnational movements remain generally lacking and must be addressed urgently.
We cannot allow the Civic Outreach and Development Push to falter under the weight of current sentiments. A government-directed and closely monitored initiative is required to drive this forward, accompanied by sensitive politico-military handling. Accelerating key socio-economic schemes in Kashmir will help deny terrorists the conditions to regenerate a fertile recruitment ground.
Controlling public panic, avoiding communal fallout, and projecting a firm yet responsible national response are paramount. The media - both national and local - will play a critical role. A heightened sense of responsibility must be instilled in anyone handling information, as rumour-mongering and divisive narratives are likely to proliferate.
This may also be an appropriate moment to turn our focus to border communities and others affected by conflict. Their role is crucial.
There is an opportunity to unite border residents, security forces, and civil society in a shared front against terrorism. India can reaffirm its image as a responsible power by striking the right balance between firmness and restraint.
(The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority, Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
