Donald Trump exited the White House in January 2021, secure in the knowledge that he had sown the seeds of peace in West Asia by getting Israel and a clutch of Arab nations to sign peace deals under the framework of what is known as the Abraham Accords. Perhaps Trump's only regret was that he could not get enough time to get Saudi Arabia to be a part of this regional peace deal with Israel. It was left to the incoming administration to finish the job.
Four years on, President Joe Biden is about to pack his bags, lugging the weight of unfulfilled promises and dashed expectations. Not only did he fail to expand Trump's pet project, but his tenure will also be remembered for watching Israel unleash devastation in Gaza while murmuring half-hearted disapproval. Biden also stood by as China strolled in to broker peace between sworn enemies, Saudi Arabia and Iran, leaving the US looking like a sidelined bystander in the geopolitical game it once dominated.
Now, with Donald Trump, the original dealmaker, just days away from his White House comeback, the question looms large: can the Abraham Accords' chief architect finally seal the deal with Saudi Arabia?
The Abraham Accords, a set of US-brokered agreements that brought Israel and several Arab nations—like the UAE and Bahrain—into a diplomatic embrace, were a Trump-era hallmark of 2020. Leveraging a mutual distaste for Iran, Trump dangled security guarantees and the promise of regional economic cooperation to seal the deal.
But the real jackpot was Saudi Arabia, the sole custodian of Islam's two holiest places—Mecca and Medina—and the world's biggest oil exporter. After the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan jumped aboard, it was only natural to expect that Riyadh was next in line. By October 2023, it was widely believed that Saudi and Israeli leaders were inching closer to a historic handshake. But the fact is that Riyadh hadn't even held formal talks with Tel Aviv, clinging firmly to one condition: there'd be no deal without a credible resolution to the Palestinian question.
Regardless, West Asia seemed on the brink of a major reset. Then, Hamas gunmen stormed southern Israel, bringing the whole effort to a screeching halt. Many see this brazen attack as a calculated move to torpedo the Saudi-Israel peace deal, fuelled by Palestinian frustration that the Abraham Accords had sidestepped their demands for statehood. Israeli, American and Arab leaders had smugly assumed the Palestinian issue had lost relevance under a resolute Israeli dominance over the ongoing status quo. In hindsight, it was a glaring miscalculation that blew up in everyone's face.
West Asia Has Changed
It is being reported that Trump and his teams are working overtime to dust off the drafts of the agreement and prepare a new one with a view to paving the way for meaningful rounds of dialogue between the Saudis and the Israelis.
Today's West Asia, however, has shifted intensely on the Arab-Palestinian issue compared to when Trump helped strike the deals in 2020, or, a year later, when he left the Oval Office. Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump kept promising that he would bring peace to West Asia. Now that he is on the cusp of returning to the US presidency, he will be expected to walk the talk amid unprecedented war, devastation and volatility in the region.
Israel's devastating military operations in Gaza and violence by settlers in the West Bank have triggered widespread anti-Israel sentiment across the Arab and Muslim world. The humanitarian toll has made it politically untenable for Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), to proceed with the peace talks. Anti-Israel public opinion in Saudi Arabia remains strong, and moving forward with normalisation under such circumstances can risk destabilising MBS's powerbase in the kingdom.
Saudi Conditions
Saudi Arabia has long made it clear: there will be no peace with Israel without progress on Palestine. A Palestinian state isn't just a footnote—it's the prerequisite. The Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, hammered this point home on global stages last year, saying that peace for Israel hinges on statehood for Palestinians. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state,” he had said. Even Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman turned up the rhetoric, labelling Israeli actions in Gaza as “genocide”. This is a first from Riyadh.
Iran No Longer The Boogeyman
The Saudi-Iran rapprochement, brokered by China in early 2023, marked a strategic shift in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy. This alignment may have reduced the country's urgency to normalise ties with Israel given its priority to de-escalate regional tensions with Iran. On the other hand, Iran's proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, have lost their bite and the dramatic collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in Damascus has now considerably weakened Iran's strategic depth. The fear of Iran, whether perceived or real, had brought together Israel and its four peace partners under the Abraham Accords framework. But now that the threat has been reduced to a very large extent, Saudi Arabia may not feel the urgency to join the exclusive Accords family.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia is going to bargain hard if it ever agrees to sign a peace deal with Israel. It has sought significant security guarantees from the US, including a defence pact, advanced weaponry such as F35, and support for a civilian nuclear programme. Biden had all along appeared hesitant to fully meet these demands, and that is one of the reasons he was unable to expand the Abraham Accords. MBS is positioning Saudi Arabia as a leader of the Islamic world. Cutting a deal with Israel amid ongoing violence in Gaza could have damaged its broader aspirations for regional and global leadership.
Hype Over Substance
Five years ago, the Abraham Accords were hailed as a game-changer, promising a new era of diplomacy and cooperation in West Asia. Unfortunately, the shine seems to have worn off. While the agreements did bring Israel closer to the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, euphoria has been snuffed out by geopolitical reality.
Scratch the surface, and the Abraham Accords reveal a lack of depth. They can't claim any groundbreaking achievement or novelty. Sure, they normalised ties between Israel and a handful of Arab states, but this isn't new territory. Egypt and Jordan forged peace with Israel decades ago. Even the Palestinians signed a treaty in 1993, with the Palestinian Authority collaborating with Israel daily since. While those agreements didn't spark grassroots enthusiasm and warmth, they had already shattered the taboo about engaging with Israel. So, were the Accords a breakthrough—or, as the cliche goes, just old wine in a new bottle?
Moreover, the four Arab nations that joined the Accords—countries that were never at war with Israel—already had informal ties with the Jewish state. This makes the Accords less about peace-building and more about coalition-building. While the agreements have allowed parties to broaden cooperation beyond security and intelligence, much of the groundwork had already been in place.
Discontent In Arab World
The Abraham Accords have failed to win over the hearts of the Arab public. According to a March 2022 poll by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 71% of Emiratis and 76% of Bahrainis opposed the normalisation of ties with Israel. In Saudi Arabia, 75% of citizens expressed opposition, while in Egypt and Jordan—countries with longstanding peace treaties—opposition soared to 84%. The Arab Opinion Index, polling across 14 countries, also found an average of 84% rejecting diplomatic ties with Israel. These figures underscore the Accords' failure to resonate with the broader Arab population.
The Accords have also not been able to bridge the trust gap between the US and its Gulf allies. Even Saudi Arabia, a key US partner not formally part of the Accords, was rattled when American support faltered following the Houthi attacks on its oil refineries a few years ago. The lacklustre response exposed the risks of over-reliance on Washington and Israel for security. Many in the Gulf believe that beyond military intelligence and hardware, Israel offers little of value to its Arab neighbours. This sentiment is worsened by Israel's actions in Gaza and the violence perpetrated by far-right settlers in the West Bank.
Challenges Within Israel
Inside Israel, the political climate is far from conducive to peace agreements. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government relies on far-right Jewish parties, many of whom view the Abraham Accords unfavourably. Saudi Arabia has made it clear that any agreement hinges on US security guarantees and progress towards a Palestinian state—neither of which look plausible, at least in the near future.
Without meaningful progress or fresh momentum, the Abraham Accords risk fading into history as a fleeting diplomatic achievement rather than a transformative breakthrough. Yet, Trump's deal-making flair and MBS's rapport with him—and Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law), a key figure behind the Accords—could still inject new life into the framework. For now, though, the promise of the expansion of the Abraham Accords hangs by a thread.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
