Opinion | Who Really Benefits From One Nation, One Election?

The Union Cabinet has cleared the “One Nation, One Election” (ONOE) Bill and it is likely to be tabled in the ongoing winter session of Parliament. The party argues that ONOE will reduce cost, time, and energy spent on elections. However, the opposition views this as an attempt by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to nationalise state elections, thus enabling it to reap the benefits of simultaneous polls.
The opposition's concerns stem from the fact that the results of the Lok Sabha and assembly elections tend to mirror each other in states going for simultaneous elections. In four states—Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh—assembly elections were held alongside the Lok Sabha polls in April-June 2024. In all these states, the party that won the state elections also went on to win the majority of Lok Sabha seats.

• Andhra Pradesh: The NDA—the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the BJP and the Janasena Party (JSP)—won the state elections and swept the Lok Sabha seats, winning 22 out of 25 seats
• Odisha: The BJP won both the state elections and the maximum seats in the Lok Sabha (20 out of 21)
• Sikkim: The Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) won the state election and the only Lok Sabha seat
• Arunachal Pradesh: The BJP won both the state elections and the two Lok Sabha seats

Additionally, the vote shares in both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections show a striking similarity, usually within a percentage-point range. The absolute number of votes also reflects this trend:
In Odisha, the BJP secured 45% in the assembly polls and 40% in the Lok Sabha polls, while the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) had 40% and 38%, respectively. In terms of absolute votes, the BJD secured 1.01 crore votes in the assembly and 0.93 crore in the Lok Sabha, while the BJP received 1 crore and 1.13 crore, respectively.

In Andhra Pradesh, the NDA secured 55% of the vote share in the assembly elections and 54% in the Lok Sabha elections. The YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), on the other hand, garnered 39% and 40% votes, respectively. In absolute terms, the YSRCP received 1.33 crore votes in the assembly and 1.32 crore in the Lok Sabha, while the NDA received 1.77 crore and 1.78 crore votes, respectively.

In earlier years, during simultaneous elections in 2014 and 2019, similar trends had been observed. For example, in 2014, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) won both the state and general elections in Telangana. The TDP-BJP combine did so in Andhra, the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) in Sikkim, the BJD in Odisha, and the Congress in Arunachal. In 2019, the YSRCP won both the state and general elections in Andhra, the SKM in Sikkim, the BJD in Odisha, and the BJP in Arunachal.

Split Voting Is Rare

Split voting refers to the phenomenon where voters choose different parties in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections, as both elections are contested on different issues. This is seen in several states across India. For instance, voters in Delhi supported the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019 but chose AAP in the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2015 and 2020. However, many states do not exhibit such split voting patterns. Voters in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Maharashtra typically support the same party in both state and national elections. Maharashtra, however, bucked the trend this year.

When elections are held separately, voters perceive the state and national elections as distinct, and this separation allows them to treat each election differently. However, in states where simultaneous polls are held, there is little evidence of split voting. The trends from the recent polls in Andhra, Odisha, Sikkim, and Arunachal suggest that simultaneous elections tend to reinforce the alignment between state and national voting patterns.

Era Of Congress Dominance

Simultaneous elections were held from 1952 to 1967, a period when the Congress dominated all through, except for intermittent periods in Kerala and Odisha. During this time, the Congress secured more than 350 seats in every Lok Sabha election (1952, 1957, and 1962). This uniformity in results during the period of simultaneous elections raises the question: how did this dominance persist?

While the Congress party, led by Jawaharlal Nehru, had stalwart leaders at the national level, it also had very strong leadership in the states, coupled with minimal competition in the early years. Figures like Morarji Desai (Bombay), Neelam Sanjeev Reddy (Andhra Pradesh), Bidhan Chandra Roy (Bengal), Govind Ballabh Pant (Uttar Pradesh), K. Kamaraj (Madras), Yashwantrao Chavan (Maharashtra), and Shri Krishna Singh (Bihar) helped the Congress win state elections and secure the maximum number of MPs from their respective states in national elections. The national election results were an aggregation of the state-level outcomes during the Lok Sabha polls.

The 1967 elections marked the end of an era in Indian politics—the era of Congress's unchallenged supremacy. The party failed to secure a simple majority in eight of the 16 state elections, leading to the formation of non-Congress governments. For the first time in Lok Sabha elections, the Congress could not secure more than 350 seats, with its tally falling below 300. Regional parties and breakaway groups began to erode the Congress's stronghold in several states, a trend that was also reflected in the national results. In states where the Congress lost power, it lost seats in the Lok Sabha as well, bringing its total down to 283. The Congress lost significant ground in Bihar, Madras, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Kerala, and West Bengal.

Are The Fears Justified?

The current trend of limited simultaneous polls in four states, alongside the historical data shows a high degree of mirroring between state and national results. So, is the fear of regional parties getting pushed to the margins justified? The answer is no.

The 1967 results, as well as the limited simultaneous polls in 2014, 2019 and 2024, show that the party that is stronger in states—whether national or regional—tends to benefit in the Lok Sabha elections as well, winning a higher number of seats. This is because split voting is not the norm, as demonstrated earlier. When split voting does occur, it is typically seen only in urban centres.

Parties that are strong in states tend to benefit, as historical data suggests. Therefore, the BJP may not necessarily benefit from ONOE, as is often claimed. In fact, strong regional parties may stand to gain more seats in the Lok Sabha than they would otherwise win.

But what about states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, where the contests are bipolar, with both the BJP and the Congress having similar support bases? This remains a very difficult question to answer at this stage.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author