Opinion | Why An Unstable Middle East Is A Risk For India

In the past dozen or so years, India has effectively transformed its "Link West" policy into an "Act West" policy. The transactional partnerships of previous decades have been replaced by a comprehensive, strategic relationship, expanding, renewing, and reigniting the intensity of exchanges at the highest levels.

The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have clearly become a central focus, as these oil-rich nations have not only sought to enhance historic ties at the modern-day strategic level but have also adopted their own "Act East" policies, with visions extending to 2023 and even 2040. This aligns with India's goal of achieving a "Viksit Bharat" by 2047. The blending of synergies and converging mutual interests has become the underlying theme of interactions. High-level committees have been established to monitor progress across all areas of individual relationships, often following the visits of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to many of these countries. Several of these countries have hosted him multiple times over the past decade, further strengthening a mutually beneficial partnership.

The UAE, with six visits, stands out and also happens to be India's third-largest trading partner. Sheikh Zayed has visited India four times, including as the Chief Guest on Republic Day and for the G20 summit. Other leaders have shown a similar interest in India's opportunities, as they follow their own brand of strategic autonomy in an increasingly fractured world. PM Modi has also become perhaps the first Indian leader to receive the highest honours from these nations, which is further testament to the importance they place on their relationship with India.

No More Shy Of Multilateral Frameworks

India is often criticised for lacking a strategic vision towards her extended neighbourhood, which is crucial to her own security and stability. Historically, relationships were mostly dealt with in a bilateral framework of cooperation, often with limited objectives. While this continues, recent years have seen a renewed focus on broader trilateral, quadrilateral, multilateral, sub-regional, and regional formats, such as the I2U2 (India, USA, UAE, and Israel), IUSU (India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, USA), India-GCC, IMEEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), as well as participation in G20 and COP mechanisms, particularly those held in Egypt and the UAE. The BRICS and the SCO are other groupings in which several Middle Eastern countries have either become members or dialogue partners, further expanding the framework of cooperation with India.

However, the ongoing 14-month-long war in Gaza, along with escalating conflicts in Lebanon and Syria, as well as the rise of non-state actors, have raised the spectre of instability, volatility, and escalation. This will directly impact energy security, food security, economic engagement, maritime connectivity, and the welfare of 10 million Indian expatriates.

The region is concerned, and so is India, along with the rest of the world. The involvement of major powers appears to be at its lowest point, with their capacity to prevent wars or effectively intervene to reduce intensity or expansion scarce.

This may be due to short-sighted geopolitical manoeuvres. However, the costs will be high if a real escalation occurs. For New Delhi, nascent sub-regional and regional mechanisms are being adversely impacted, some even before they have fully taken off—such as the IMEEC—though India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are continuing their work and coordination.

In order to address various bilateral and regional projects and issues, recent engagements are noteworthy. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is touring Qatar and Bahrain from December 6-9 for the Doha Forum and to co-chair the fourth India-Bahrain High-Level Joint Commission. Qatar has become a key player in international negotiations, notably playing a central role in ceasefire efforts between Israel and Hamas. Consequently, foreign ministers from Turkey, Iran, and Russia were expected to meet on the sidelines of the Doha Forum for urgent discussions on Syria. During his visit, Jaishankar will have an opportunity to meet his counterparts and leaders from Qatar and other countries at this critical juncture.

Additionally, following the visit of the External Affairs Minister, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali Al Yahya led a delegation to India from December 3-4 to discuss bilateral and regional issues. The Joint Commission has been upgraded to the ministerial level, and several Joint Working Groups will be established to address various dimensions of the comprehensive relationship. A visit by Prime Minister Modi to Kuwait is also being discussed, which could not take place earlier due to scheduling issues.
Similarly, the 13th round of Foreign Office Consultations was held with Egypt on December 5. The 13th round of the India-Oman Strategic Consultative Group (IOSCG) meeting also took place on December 3 in New Delhi—both at the Secretary level. During these meetings, bilateral and regional issues were discussed in detail. India and Syria also held the 6th round of Foreign Office consultations on November 29.

More Frequent Meetings

Earlier, during his 10th visit, Jaishankar met with his counterpart, Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of the UAE. They reviewed the entire spectrum of the comprehensive strategic partnership, and the EAM expressed satisfaction over the continued exchange of high-level visits and the exponential growth of the relationship. They also discussed regional and global issues of mutual interest, which included a deeper discussion of the evolving situation in the region.

In discussions with another major strategic partner, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, talks were held during the visit of Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, the Saudi Foreign Minister, to New Delhi on November 12-13. During the meeting, both sides discussed avenues to strengthen the strategic partnership between India and Saudi Arabia in areas including trade, investment, energy, defence, security, culture, and consular matters. Both Foreign Ministers also exchanged views on regional and international issues of mutual interest at the second ministerial meeting of the Political, Security, Social, and Cultural Committee (PSSC) of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council (SPC).
Prime Minister Modi also met Iranian President Dr. Pezeshkian in Kazan on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. He urged all sides to exercise restraint and prioritize dialogue and diplomacy, while India continued to provide humanitarian assistance.

The frequency of these high-level interactions in less than two months highlights the importance of regional stability and security, and India's commitment to this cause. The Indian Navy is already in the region ensuring the security of merchant shipping and maritime routes. But the region remains a powder keg, with numerous active conflicts, hotspots, and geopolitical fault lines that could become even more dangerous unless pragmatic approaches are adopted by major powers.

(The author is India's former Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author