Opinion: Polarisation Won't Work In Kerala. So, BJP Makes Strategic Shift

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, dressed in traditional mundu, held a roadshow, attended various programmes and launched infrastructure projects in Kerala in a bid to attract voters ahead of Lok Sabha elections in 2024. This is part of BJP's outreach in the southern state where it hopes to make inroads.

In a strategic shift from hardcore Hindutva, which hasn't worked for the party in Kerala, BJP's three-fold strategy is to woo the Christian community, tap young voters and hardsell Modi's brand of development. 

The party hopes that the PM's meetings with top bishops and the entry of young leaders like Anil Antony (AK Antony's son) and former Kerala Congress leaders like Victor T. Thomas could help it send a few MPs to parliament in 2024.

It is laying special emphasis on the Christian community - which has been backing it in a few north-eastern states and Goa - to expand its vote base in the state which has remained elusive despite boasting of the highest number of RSS shakhas in the state. To that end, the Prime Minister met bishops of various churches who wield considerable influence in the community.

The PM flagged off the state's first Vande Bharat Express, inaugurated a Digital Park and the country's first water metro project during his visit. Infrastructure is visible development, inauguration of projects is shows progress - killing two birds with one stone. It could puncture the ruling CPM's charge of step-motherly treatment by the central government and attract those who vote on the issue of development. 

At a conclave, "Yuvam", the Prime Minister said that the BJP and the youth of the country shared the same vision and underlined how his government was creating opportunities for them through Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and Startup India programmes.

The BJP won its first-ever seat in Kerala in the assembly election in 2016. It failed to open its account in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the 2021 state election, recording a vote share in the range of 11%-13%. Despite a high minority population of 45% (27% Muslims and 18% Christians), the BJP has failed to draw Hindu voters in the state as polarisation has not borne fruit.

Before the 2021 election, the CPM-led LDF (Left Democratic Front) alliance was the clear Hindu party and the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front) the minority party in Kerala. A reason why the state has witnessed umpteen incidents of violence between CPM and BJP/RSS cadre. The CPM views the BJP as a long-term competitor. Religion/community-based parties such as IUML (Muslims) and Kerala Congress (Christian) also play a crucial role in state politics and are alliance partners of Congress.

The Congress has typically stitched an alliance of upper castes, Muslims, Christians and some Dalits, while the Left has had a significant proportion of its votes coming from the numerically large Ezhavas (20%) along with small proportions of upper castes, Muslims and Christians.

In the 2014, 2016 and 2019 elections, the BJP managed to make marginal inroads into the Nairs and Ezhavas (OBC) through an alliance with BDJS, slightly eating into the Congress's Hindu support base.

The charged elections of 2021 saw the LDF leading against the UDF even amongst minorities. The LDF received 50% of Muslim and 44% of Christian community support against 45% and 43% support respectively for the Congress, due to the weakening of the latter nationally, popularity of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the good work done by his administration during the peak of COVID-19. A section of the minority community also switched sides, from UDF to LDF, apprehensive of the BJP's rise in the state.

With a weakened Congress, the BJP hopes it will be able to split the minority vote and attract Christians towards it. It can draw strength from the fact that the community voted for the party in Goa in 2022, where it fielded 30% Christian candidates and won seats from Catholic Christian-dominated South Goa. The BJP, along with allies, formed governments in Christian-dominated Nagaland and Meghalaya recently.

The Muslim community's shift towards LDF in 2021, if permanent, could change the political landscape in the state forever. There are strong rumours that the IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) may ditch Congress and join the CPM-led front. This is where the BJP sees an opening and opportunity to draw the Hindu votes from CPM.

It has also alleged that the CPM and Congress are in cahoots to defeat the BJP, citing the bonhomie between the parties in Tripura and West Bengal.

The BJP's strategic shift in Kerala, though, is fraught with challenges in Left's last-remaining bastion. Its vote share has stayed in the 12% range for a while now. High levels of literacy have meant that polarisation in the state doesn't work as well as in the Hindi heartland states. It also lacks the charisma of a Pinarayi Vijayan and Shashi Tharoor. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.