In a recent statement, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that India and China should “support each other rather than undermine each other or undercut each other", and that they “should work with each other rather than guard against each other”. On face value, the statement appears to indicate the positive momentum that India-China relations have witnessed since October 2024. After a gap of more than four years since the violent 2020 Galwan Clashes, New Delhi and Beijing have started to discuss ways to proceed ahead with border patrolling and disengagement. With this, China has also continued to reiterate that the border issue should not be the central point to base the direction of the bilateral relations. Even though Beijing calls for “trust” and not guarding “against each other”, it has continued to undertake surveillance, reconnaissance and monitoring exercises.
Chinese efforts to gain influence and access, especially in the South Asian region, have grown consistently over the last few years. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was launched in 2013, has helped Beijing gain a strong foothold in the region as it has used its economic prowess in the form of loans and aid to gain leverage. A number of South Asian countries are facing major debt challenges as a result of that.
Sri Lanka And Maldives
The first casualty was the leasing of the Hambantota Port by Sri Lanka to China in 2017 for a period of 99 years. This has intensified New Delhi's security woes. China has also used its economic clout over Sri Lanka to let its spy ships and vessels dock there under the garb of research. These vehicles have consistently added to the Indian Navy's security challenges, as they can gather confidential data on movement and preparedness. In 2017, the Gwadar Port's day-to-day operations were also handed over to a Chinese state-run company for 40 years. China has also sent a number of submarines to the region.
New Delhi faces a similar challenge from the Maldives as well. The strong tilt of Male towards Beijing under the Muizzu government is a cause of concern for India. Chinese ships have continued to dock in Male. Recent talks between China and Maldives also involved discussions about installing fish aggregating devices (FADs) in the Indian Ocean Region. In early 2024, Xiang Yang Hong 03, which is one of the most advanced research vessels in China, also visited Maldives.
It was during a 2015 visit to Mauritius that the Indian Prime Minister had envisioned the idea of Security and Growth for all in the Region (SAGAR). Years later, as the Prime Minister visits the island nation on March 11-12, New Delhi is set to conclude MoUs that will help India in sharing white-shipping information and counter growing Chinese inroads. India has also been working towards strengthening its Lakshadweep Islands and has established the INS Jatayu base, on Minicoy, the southernmost archipelago.
The LPAR In Yunnan
Apart from oceans, China, as per reports, also recently deployed a Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) in Yunnan province and near the Myanmar border, which has a monitoring range of 5,000 kilometres. This provides Beijing with access to a large tract of Indian land, which will help it keep tabs on missile and other air force movements. It is believed that this radar has the capacity to detect missile tests conducted at Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha. The island is used primarily for the launch of Agni V, an intercontinental missile, and of the K4 submarine-launched missiles. Both these things compromise India's security preparedness as they help Beijing monitor every possible move undertaken by New Delhi. India, meanwhile, has been in talks with Moscow to receive the Voronezh radar system with a range of 8,000 kilometres, a step that will enhance India's security apparatus.
It is not only land and sea; the Chinese space reconnaissance system is also quite sophisticated. Beijing had started this programme in 2006 and has launched more than 140 Yaogan satellites so far. Yaogan can be literally translated as ‘remote sensing'. This coupled with its other satellite systems, like Gaofen and Shiyan, provides China with the capability to track even car-sized objects in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As per reports, Beijing has a total of 245 operational reconnaissance satellites, while New Delhi has just 26. The Chinese satellites also enjoy better range, resolution and all-weather capabilities.
Caution Is Key
Given this backdrop, New Delhi has every reason to be on guard when it comes to moving ahead with any kind of normalisation with Beijing. The defence budget for China for fiscal year 2025 has been set at $246 billion, while India's defence budget is at around $82 billion. China will be spending more than three times that of India in the next year.
True, when it comes to diplomatic channels, China has consistently argued that there is a need to push for building economic relations and reestablish people-to-people connections and direct flights between the two countries. India has been quite consistent in its argument: of keeping bilateral talks focused on the resolution of the border issue. Even so, it is quite obvious that China is fully cognisant of the fact that security is crucial when it comes to India-China relations and has been working towards building its security infrastructure. These developments should be taken into consideration when New Delhi answers Beijing's calls for a rethink on bilateral ties. This also raises the question, can India-China relations ever be based on mutual trust and respect?
(The author is a Professor at OP Jindal Global University)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
