Opinion | Why A Possible Return Of Trump Is Giving Europe The Jitters

President Joe Biden's shaky performance against his rival, Donald Trump, in the first presidential debate on Thursday has sent shockwaves across both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, a CBS News/YouGov poll on Sunday suggested that 72% of registered voters believed Biden did not have the mental fitness to serve as President. Biden is 81 and Trump is 78, but those who watched the debate would have noticed that Biden made his rival look a lot younger. More worrying for the Democratic Party was that the poll indicated that 45% of registered Democrats wanted Biden to step aside for another candidate.

In Europe, Biden's poor showing, which dramatically increased Trump's chances of being re-elected, has stirred up a lot of anxiety about what a second Trump term could mean for Europe's security and Ukraine's future. A Polish news website summed up the continent's worry: "Trump proved once again that his potential victory is bad news for NATO, Ukraine, and by extension, Poland."

Many Europeans believe that Europe's future without a strong US embrace is uncertain. They fear that if Trump wins in the November Presidential election, Europe's security won't be guaranteed. Trump has said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war, and if it ends with the current status quo, it could be seen more as a defeat for NATO than for Ukraine.

NATO Summit At A Critical Juncture

Amidst this anxiety, leaders of the 32-member NATO alliance are meeting in Washington from July 9 to 11 to celebrate its 75th anniversary. But with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Trump's comments in Thursday's debate, there won't be much to celebrate. Trump's views on NATO and Ukraine have cast a shadow over the summit. During the debate, Trump once again chastised European NATO members for not contributing enough to the alliance's budget, an issue that is most certainly to be discussed. Also, the Russian war in Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda, including the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO.

One of the main reasons European leaders are apprehensive about Trump's potential re-election is his critical stance on NATO during his presidency. He pushed for increased defence budgets among European NATO members. Although this led to some increases, it was often accompanied by harsh rhetoric and threats of withdrawing US support. Many European countries have committed to contributing 2% of their GDP to NATO's budget by the end of this year. With over 3.5% contribution, the US remains the largest contributor to the alliance.

The Reality Of NATO Contributions

In his constant complaints about Europe not paying enough for NATO, Trump misses a vital point. The reality is that the US uses NATO to maintain its authority over Europe. Critics argue that America exerts disproportionate influence within the alliance, directing its strategic priorities and military actions, hoping Europe will follow suit. Historically, whether it is the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan or bombings over Libya, the European members of NATO have always supported the US.

The US's stand on the Israel war in Gaza is fully supported by Britain and many European members of NATO. Many ordinary Europeans feel that their governments' foreign policy is subservient to the US. 

Europe's Broader Concerns

Europe doesn't only fear Trump's views on NATO and Ukraine - we might recall that during Trump's presidency, several key international agreements and partnerships were abandoned or renegotiated, often to the dismay of European allies. The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, and various trade agreements created significant rifts. European leaders, who valued these agreements for global stability and environmental protection, are concerned that Trump's re-election would lead to more isolationist policies and a diminished US role in global leadership.

In February, Trump stunned the US political class by saying he would "encourage" Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to NATO allies who do not spend enough on defence. The statement created a huge controversy, and though Trump's popularity kept growing, it further exacerbated European insecurity. Many fear that Trump's transactional, isolationist, and disruptive style of governance would challenge and possibly destroy the current transatlantic relationship.

Historical Context And European Efforts

Trump, however, is not the only president to have questioned NATO's burden on the US. President Dwight Eisenhower also believed that European nations should eventually be able to defend themselves without relying on the US, suggesting that NATO should not be a permanent solution. More recently, a Republican Senator wondered when Europe would learn to stand on its own feet.
Signs of Europe's Efforts to Reduce US Dependence

Trump's potential return to the White House has led Europe to start preparing for a "Trump-proof" NATO. Many optimists in Europe's academic circles believe the continent can become an independent force in a multipolar world, arguing that Europe has the resources to fend for itself. The continent has contributed more financially to Ukraine's war efforts than the US. Many European countries have begun investing in rebuilding their defence capabilities, which they had reduced since NATO began providing security in 1949.

In April, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for a more independent European foreign policy, saying it was time for Europe to be more united and independent. In a speech at Sorbonne University in Paris, Macron said the continent was "too slow and lacks ambition" and that the 27-member European Union needs to become a superpower, defend its own borders, and speak with one voice if it wants to survive and thrive.

A Europe without the NATO security cover might be music to Russia's ears, but the continent could descend into chaos from internal quarrels if the US were to leave the alliance. Historically, Germany, France, and Britain were often at war, culminating in the two world wars. Since then, it has been peaceful and prosperous, thanks mainly to the US.

But since Trump's last time in power (2016-2020), the European Union has been working seriously on strengthening the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), increasing defence budgets, and enhancing military cooperation among member states. Initiatives like the European Defense Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation aim to develop joint military projects and improve defence readiness. Additionally, countries such as France and Germany are advocating for a more integrated European army to ensure the continent can independently manage its security and respond to potential threats.

As Trump's potential re-election looms, the NATO summit will give Europe an opportunity to seek the security guarantee regardless of who the US president is. But it will be wise to start preparing to strengthen its own defence capabilities to reduce dependency on the US. One can argue that in case Trump is re-elected, it might hurt the Europeans. That is why instead of trying to strike for a Trump-proof NATO, it will be more beneficial for Europe to continue to prepare itself for a US-free NATO.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author